Publications

Educators

2009
Working Paper

Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect

By: Amir E. Khandani, Andrew W. Lo and Robert C. Merton

The confluence of three trends in the U.S. residential housing market-rising home prices, declining interest rates, and near-frictionless refinancing opportunities-led to vastly increased systemic risk in the financial system. Individually, each of these trends is... View Details

Keywords: Equity; Mortgages; Interest Rates; Price; Housing; Risk and Uncertainty; United States

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fall 2007
Article

Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts

By: Vishal Gaur, Saravanan Kesavan, Ananth Raman and Marshall L. Fisher

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Judgments; Forecasting and Prediction

June 1999 (Revised May 2017)
Teaching Note

Guidant Corporation: Shaping Culture Through Systems

By: Robert Simons and Antonio Dávila

Teaching Note for (9-198-076). View Details

Keywords: Strategy And Execution; Management Control Systems; Risk And Uncertainty; Service Industry; Financial Services Industry

Article

Risk and the Value Line Contest

By: Robert S. Kaplan and Roman L. Weil

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Value

This paper proposes a new approach to social cost-benefit analysis using a model in which a benevolent government chooses risky projects in the presence of market failures and tax distortions. The government internalizes market failures and therefore perceives project... View Details

Regulatory Uncertainty and Corporate Responses to Environmental Protection in China

This article analyzes the closing gap between regulation and enforcement of environmental protection in China and explores its implications for doing business there. It identifies three major dimensions that characterize change in regulatory systems: priorities and... View Details

Forthcoming
Article

How Central Banks Manage Climate and Energy Transition Risks

By: Esther Shears, Jonas Meckling and Jared Finnegan

Central banks have begun to examine and manage climate risks, including both transition risks of moving from fossil fuels to clean energy and physical climate risks. Here we provide a systematic assessment of how and why central banks address climate risks on the basis... View Details

Keywords: Banks and Banking; Risk and Uncertainty; Climate Change; Transition; Risk Management

1996
Chapter

Measuring Risk and Return for Portfolios

By: D. E. Bell

Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics

2015
Working Paper

Banks' Risk Exposures

By: Juliane Begenau, Monika Piazzesi and Martin Schneider

This paper studies U.S. banks' exposure to interest rate and credit risk. We exploit the factor structure in interest rates to represent many bank positions in terms of simple factor portfolios. This approach delivers time varying measures of exposure that are... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Interest Rates; Credit; Banks and Banking; United States

March 2024 (Revised June 2024)
Case

Kashat: Navigating the Uncertainties of the Egyptian Fintech Market

By: Paul A. Gompers and Ahmed Dahawy

Karim Nour, the founder of Kashat, an Egyptian nano-lending fintech company, is contemplating how to manage the growth of his startup. Over the summer of 2022, Kashat's loan disbursements had grown by nearly 40%, fueled by macroeconomic instability in Egypt. However,... View Details

Keywords: Fintech; Business Model; Developing Countries and Economies; Acquisition; Business Exit or Shutdown; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Business Growth and Maturation; Business Startups; Financing and Loans; Capital; Financial Services Industry; Banking Industry; Egypt

Educators

07 Apr 2020
Video

Uncovering and Pricing Climate Risk in Long-Term Investments

July 2015
Article

Executives' 'Off-the-Job' Behaviors and Financial Reporting Risk

By: Robert Davidson, Aiyesha Dey and Abbie Smith

We examine how executives' behavior outside the workplace, as measured by their ownership of luxury goods (low “frugality”) and prior legal infractions, is related to financial reporting risk. We predict and find that chief executive officers (CEOs) and chief financial... View Details

Keywords: Management Teams; Behavior; Personal Characteristics; Crime and Corruption; Governance Compliance; Financial Reporting; Organizational Culture

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7 Mar 2013
Keynote Speech

Positive Risk and the Innovation Commons

By: Carliss Y. Baldwin

Keywords: Innovation ＆ Entrepreneurship; Entrepreneurship; Innovation and Invention

December 2010
Background Note

Risk and Reward in Venture Capital

By: William A. Sahlman

This note describes the payoff structure of investment in individual venture capital–backed companies and in venture capital portfolios. Venture Capital investments are characterized by high failure rate (0ver 50%) and a small number of given successes (greater than... View Details

Keywords: Capital Markets; Venture Capital; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Analytics and Data Science; Failure; Performance; Information Technology

Educators

2010
Chapter

Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability: A New Framework

By: Dale F. Gray, Robert C. Merton and Zvi Bodie

This paper proposes a new approach to improve the way central banks can analyze and manage the financial risks of a national economy. It is based on the modern theory and practice of contingent claims analysis (CCA), which is successfully used today at the level of... View Details

Keywords: Financial Statements; Economy; Financial Condition; Central Banking; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Management Practices and Processes; Risk Management; Measurement and Metrics; System Shocks

12 May 2020
Working Paper Summaries

Elusive Safety: The New Geography of Capital Flows and Risk

Keywords: by Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia, Ruth Judson, and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr

20 Mar 2018
Working Paper Summaries

Countering Political Risk in Colonial India: German Multinationals and the Challenge of Internment (1914–1947)

Keywords: by Christina Lubinski, Valeria Giacomin, and Klara Schnitzer

2008
Other Unpublished Work

Accounting, Risk Management and the Aftermath of a Control Debacle

By: Anette Mikes

Despite the widespread adoption of risk management systems in the financial services industry, recent control debacles highlight the apparent lack of top managerial attention to risk controls. Yet in order to understand the workings and uses of risk controls (or any... View Details

Keywords: Risk Management; Governance Controls; Management Systems; Accounting; Conflict and Resolution; Trends; Financial Services Industry