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- All HBS Web (991)
- Faculty Publications (347)
Show Results For
- All HBS Web (991)
- Faculty Publications (347)
- February 2024
- Article
Representation and Extrapolation: Evidence from Clinical Trials
By: Marcella Alsan, Maya Durvasula, Harsh Gupta, Joshua Schwartzstein and Heidi L. Williams
This article examines the consequences and causes of low enrollment of Black patients in clinical
trials. We develop a simple model of similarity-based extrapolation that predicts that evidence is
more relevant for decision-making by physicians and patients when it... View Details
Keywords: Representation; Racial Disparity; Health Testing and Trials; Race; Equality and Inequality; Innovation and Invention; Pharmaceutical Industry
Alsan, Marcella, Maya Durvasula, Harsh Gupta, Joshua Schwartzstein, and Heidi L. Williams. "Representation and Extrapolation: Evidence from Clinical Trials." Quarterly Journal of Economics 139, no. 1 (February 2024): 575–635.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Consumer Inertia and Market Power
By: Alexander MacKay and Marc Remer
We study the pricing decisions of firms in the presence of consumer inertia. Inertia, which can arise from habit formation, brand loyalty, and switching costs, generates dynamic pricing incentives. These incentives mediate the impact of competition on market power in... View Details
Keywords: Consumer Inertia; Market Power; Dynamic Competition; Demand Estimation; Consumer Behavior; Markets; Performance; Competition; Price
MacKay, Alexander, and Marc Remer. "Consumer Inertia and Market Power." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-111, April 2019. (Revised January 2024. Direct download.)
- Research Summary
Social Networks and Unraveling in Labor Markets
This paper develops a model of local unraveling (or early hiring) in entry-level labor markets. Information about workers' productivity is revealed over time and transmitted credibly via a two-sided network connecting firms and workers. While employment starts only... View Details
- Article
Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts
By: Y. Grushka-Cockayne, V.R.R. Jose and K. C. Lichtendahl
Firms today average forecasts collected from multiple experts and models. Because of cognitive biases, strategic incentives, or the structure of machine-learning algorithms, these forecasts are often overfit to sample data and are overconfident. Little is known about... View Details
Grushka-Cockayne, Y., V.R.R. Jose, and K. C. Lichtendahl. "Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts." Management Science 63, no. 4 (April 2017): 1110–1130.
- 2023
- Article
Verifiable Feature Attributions: A Bridge between Post Hoc Explainability and Inherent Interpretability
By: Usha Bhalla, Suraj Srinivas and Himabindu Lakkaraju
With the increased deployment of machine learning models in various real-world applications, researchers and practitioners alike have emphasized the need for explanations of model behaviour. To this end, two broad strategies have been outlined in prior literature to... View Details
Bhalla, Usha, Suraj Srinivas, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Verifiable Feature Attributions: A Bridge between Post Hoc Explainability and Inherent Interpretability." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) (2023).
- Research Summary
Overview
Paul is primarily interested in studying explainable machine learning (ML), digital transformation, and data science operations. He works on research that explores how stakeholders within organizations can use machine learning to make better decisions. In particular,... View Details
- Article
The Effect of Dividends on Consumption
By: Malcolm Baker, Stefan Nagel and Jeffrey Wurgler
Classical models predict that the division of stock returns into dividends and capital appreciation does not affect investor consumption patterns, while mental accounting and other economic frictions predict that investors have a higher propensity to consume from... View Details
Keywords: Investment; Investment Return; Economics; Stocks; Capital; Business Earnings; Investment Portfolio; Investment Funds; Cost; Saving
Baker, Malcolm, Stefan Nagel, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Effect of Dividends on Consumption." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no. 1 (2007): 277–291.
- September 2010
- Article
Do Inventory and Gross Margin Data Improve Sales Forecasts for U.S. Public Retailers?
By: Saravanan Kesavan, Vishal Gaur and Ananth Raman
Firm-level sales forecasts for retailers can be improved if we incorporate cost of goods sold, inventory, and gross margin (defined here as the ratio of sales to cost of goods sold) as three endogenous variables. We construct a simultaneous equations model, estimated... View Details
Keywords: Sales; Forecasting and Prediction; Distribution; Goods and Commodities; Cost; Public Sector; Profit; Mathematical Methods; Analytics and Data Science; Retail Industry; United States
Kesavan, Saravanan, Vishal Gaur, and Ananth Raman. "Do Inventory and Gross Margin Data Improve Sales Forecasts for U.S. Public Retailers?" Management Science 56, no. 9 (September 2010): 1519–1533.
- January 2008 (Revised July 2009)
- Case
Forecasting the Great Depression
What is proper role of professional economic forecasting in financial decision making? The case presents excerpts from three leading economic forecasters on the eve of, and just after, the stock market crash of October 1929. The first set of excerpts is from Roger... View Details
Keywords: History; Mathematical Methods; Personal Development and Career; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis
Friedman, Walter A. "Forecasting the Great Depression." Harvard Business School Case 708-046, January 2008. (Revised July 2009.)
- 2006
- Working Paper
The Effect of Dividends on Consumption
By: Malcolm Baker, Stefan Nagel and Jeffrey Wurgler
Classical models predict that the division of stock returns into dividends and capital appreciation does not affect investor consumption patterns, while mental accounting and other economic frictions predict that investors have a higher propensity to consume from stock... View Details
Baker, Malcolm, Stefan Nagel, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Effect of Dividends on Consumption." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 12288, June 2006. (First Draft in 2005.)
- 2014
- Working Paper
Bio-Piracy or Prospering Together? Fuzzy Set and Qualitative Analysis of Herbal Patenting by Firms
By: Prithwiraj Choudhury and Tarun Khanna
Since the 1990s, several Western firms have filed patents based on medicinal herbs from emerging markets, evoking protests from local stakeholders against 'bio-piracy'. We explore conditions under which firms and local stakeholders share rents from such patents. Our... View Details
Keywords: Rents From New Technology; Local Stakeholders; Herbal Patents; QCA; Fuzzy Set Analysis; Qualitative Case Studies; Plant-Based Agribusiness; Patents; Emerging Markets; Health Care and Treatment; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Pharmaceutical Industry
Choudhury, Prithwiraj, and Tarun Khanna. "Bio-Piracy or Prospering Together? Fuzzy Set and Qualitative Analysis of Herbal Patenting by Firms." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 14-081, February 2014.
- 2008
- Working Paper
Attitude-Dependent Altruism, Turnout and Voting
By: Julio J. Rotemberg
This paper presents a goal-oriented model of political participation based on two psychological assumptions. The first is that people are more altruistic towards individuals that agree with them and the second is that people's well-being rises when other people share... View Details
Rotemberg, Julio J. "Attitude-Dependent Altruism, Turnout and Voting." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 14302, September 2008.
- 2008
- Chapter
Public Action for Public Goods: Theory and Evidence
By: Abhijit Banerjee, Lakshmi Iyer and Rohini Somanathan
This chapter focuses on the relationship between public action and access to public goods. It begins by developing a simple model of collective action which is intended to capture the various mechanisms that are discussed in the theoretical literature on collective... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Customer Journey as a Source of Information
By: Nicolas Padilla, Eva Ascarza and Oded Netzer
In the face of heightened data privacy concerns and diminishing third-party data access,
firms are placing increased emphasis on first-party data (1PD) for marketing decisions.
However, in environments with infrequent purchases, reliance on past purchases 1PD... View Details
Keywords: Customer Journey; Privacy; Consumer Behavior; Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning; Customer Focus and Relationships
Padilla, Nicolas, Eva Ascarza, and Oded Netzer. "The Customer Journey as a Source of Information." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-035, October 2023. (Revised October 2023.)
- Research Summary
Overview
Everett is currently engaged in the following research projects:
- Are the Best Junior Officers Getting Out of the US Army? (ongoing)
- What Predicts Success at the United States Military Academy Preparatory School? (ongoing)
- Follow the Leader- What Is the Effect... View Details
- 2017
- Working Paper
Management as a Technology?
By: Nicholas Bloom, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen
Are some management practices akin to a technology that can explain firm and national productivity, or do they simply reflect contingent management styles? We collect data on core management practices from over 11,000 firms in 34 countries. We find large cross-country... View Details
Keywords: Management Practices; Productivity; Competition; Management Practices and Processes; Performance Productivity
Bloom, Nicholas, Raffaella Sadun, and John Van Reenen. "Management as a Technology?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-133, June 2016. (Revised October 2017.)
- 2021
- Working Paper
An Empirical Study of Time Allotment and Delays in E-commerce Delivery
By: M. Balakrishnan, MoonSoo Choi and Natalie Epstein
Problem definition: We study how having more time allotted to deliver an order affects the speed of the delivery process. Furthermore, we seek to predict orders that are likely to be delayed early in the delivery process so that actions can be taken to avoid delays.... View Details
Keywords: Logistics; E-commerce; Mathematical Methods; AI and Machine Learning; Performance Productivity
Balakrishnan, M., MoonSoo Choi, and Natalie Epstein. "An Empirical Study of Time Allotment and Delays in E-commerce Delivery." Working Paper, December 2021.
- 2004
- Working Paper
Thinking About Technology: Applying a Cognitive Lens to Technical Change
We apply a cognitive lens to understanding technology trajectories across the life cycle by developing a coevolutionary model of technological frames and technology. Applying that model to each stage of the technology life cycle, we identify conditions under which a... View Details
Kaplan, Sarah, and Mary Tripsas. "Thinking About Technology: Applying a Cognitive Lens to Technical Change." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 04-039, January 2004. (Revised September 2006, August 2007, April 2008.)
- December 2010
- Article
Altruistic Dynamic Pricing with Customer Regret
By: Julio J. Rotemberg
A model is considered where firms internalize the regret costs that consumers experience when they see an unexpected price change. Regret costs are assumed to be increasing in the size of price changes and this can explain why the size of price increases is less... View Details
Keywords: Cost; Price; Change; Inflation and Deflation; Cost Management; Customers; Practice; Announcements; Forecasting and Prediction
Rotemberg, Julio J. "Altruistic Dynamic Pricing with Customer Regret." Scandinavian Journal of Economics 112, no. 4 (December 2010).
Paul Hamilton
Paul studies the economic complements needed for firms to realize productivity gains from machine learning and artificial intelligence. These complements include data, human capital & skills, organizational processes, and business models.
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