Publications

August 2020
Article

Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy

By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam

We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and... View Details

Keywords: Risk-centric Business Cycles; Cross-section Of Equities; Real Risk-free Rate; Real Investment; Financial Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Investment

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October 2021 (Revised February 2022)
Case

Green Hydrogen in Chile

By: Tarun Khanna, Jenyfeer Martínez Buitrago and Mariana Cal

In 2020, the Chilean government wants to promote green hydrogen, a technology with high potential to help mitigate climate change. President Sebastián Piñera, aware of the country's advantages to produce green hydrogen competitively, asks Energy Minister Juan Carlos... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Decision Making; Alternative Energy; Renewable Energy; Climate Change; Environmental Sustainability; Green Technology; Financial Instruments; Energy Policy; Government Administration; Strategy; Government and Politics; Social Issues; Energy Industry; Latin America; South America; Chile

2015
Working Paper

The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications

By: Emil Siriwardane

I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross... View Details

Keywords: Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics

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2024
Working Paper

Corporate Debt, Boom-Bust Cycles, and Financial Crises

By: Victoria Ivashina, Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Luc Laeven and Karsten Müller

Using a new dataset on sectoral credit exposures covering financial and non-financial sectors in 115 economies over the period 1940–2014, we document the following evidence that corporate debt plays a key role in explaining boom-bust cycles, financial crises, and slow... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Economic Growth; Economic Sectors; Borrowing and Debt; Credit

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September 2016 (Revised January 2017)
Case

SOHO China: Transformation in Progress

By: Charles F. Wu

In 2016, against the backdrop of a challenging Chinese macroeconomic environment, SOHO China, the largest owner and developer of Class-A real estate in Beijing and Shanghai, was struggling to convince analysts of the merits of its new “build-to-hold” strategy. Founded... View Details

Keywords: China; REIT; Real Estate; Shared Office; Coworking; Public Company; NAV; Macroeconomics; Going Public; Transition; Growth and Development Strategy; Real Estate Industry; China

October 2019
Teaching Note

Google: To TVC or Not to TVC?

By: William R. Kerr and Carl Kreitzberg

A Teaching Note for the "Google: To TVC or Not to TVC?" case study (HBS#820-048). The case discusses recent controversies regarding how Google manages temporary help agency workers, workers supplied by vendors, and independent contractors ("TVCs"). Such TVCs reportedly... View Details

May 2004 (Revised November 2005)
Case

Turkey: Securing Stability in a Rough Neighborhood

By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Emily Thompson

After suffering years of volatility and crises, Turkey desperately sought macroeconomic and political stability in an ever-worsening region of the world. In the short term, Turkey had to repay its debt, which amounted to more than 80% of GDP. By January 2004, Turkey... View Details

Keywords: Public Sector; Inflation and Deflation; Macroeconomics; Borrowing and Debt; Banks and Banking; International Finance; Privatization; Religion; Turkey; European Union

18 Oct 2013
Working Paper Summaries

Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks

Keywords: by John Y. Campbell, Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira

October 2024
Teaching Note

El Salvador: Launching Bitcoin as Legal Tender

By: Laura Alfaro

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 322-055. In June 2021, Nayib Bukele, El Salvador’s president, surprised the world with the announcement that the country would adopt bitcoin as legal tender, becoming the first nation to do so. Bitcoin was mostly used for trading and had... View Details

Keywords: Bitcoin; Cryptocurrency; Currency; Financial Strategy; Economic Growth; Governance; Macroeconomics; Assets; Latin America; El Salvador

18 Mar 2008
First Look

First Look: March 18, 2008

usable by consumers so that they are empowered to make healthier decisions. Download the paper: http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/08-082.pdf Cases & Course MaterialsItaly: If Not Now, When? Harvard Business School Case 707-051 Describes Italy's main View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

05 Dec 2006
First Look

First Look: December 5, 2006

Working PapersThe Industry R&D Survey — Patent Database Link Project Authors:William R. Kerr and Shihe Fu Abstract This paper details the construction of a firm-year panel dataset combining the NBER Patent Dataset with the Industry R&D Survey conducted by the... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

March 2024 (Revised June 2024)
Case

Kashat: Navigating the Uncertainties of the Egyptian Fintech Market

By: Paul A. Gompers and Ahmed Dahawy

Karim Nour, the founder of Kashat, an Egyptian nano-lending fintech company, is contemplating how to manage the growth of his startup. Over the summer of 2022, Kashat's loan disbursements had grown by nearly 40%, fueled by macroeconomic instability in Egypt. However,... View Details

Keywords: Fintech; Business Model; Developing Countries and Economies; Acquisition; Business Exit or Shutdown; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Business Growth and Maturation; Business Startups; Financing and Loans; Capital; Financial Services Industry; Banking Industry; Egypt

July 2005 (Revised March 2010)
Case

Foreign Direct Investment and Ireland's Tiger Economy (A)

By: Laura Alfaro, Vinati Dev and Stephen McIntyre

Describes Ireland's transformation from one of Europe's poorest countries to one of its richest in just 10 years, earning it the title Celtic Tiger. The spectacular story of growth and recovery is attributed, in large part, to foreign direct investment (FDI),... View Details

Keywords: Developing Countries and Economies; Economic Growth; Macroeconomics; Foreign Direct Investment; Policy; Business and Government Relations; Republic of Ireland

26 Sep 2018
HBS Seminar

Gustavo Manso, University of California Berkeley Haas School of Business

January 2020
Teaching Note

Chile: Unrest in the Copper Nation

By: Laura Alfaro and Sarah Jeong

For decades, Chile enjoyed the stability of being the world’s largest producer of copper. Keynes would have advised that this period of growth would have been the time for the government to save, that “the boom, not the slump, is the right time for austerity at the... View Details

Keywords: Copper Production; Protests; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Metals and Minerals; Production; Economy; Emerging Markets; Chile

21 Dec 2020
News

Space Economics: Hunting Stags in Space

May 2023 (Revised November 2023)
Case

Arcos Dorados: Decarbonizing McDonald’s in Latin America

By: George Serafeim, Michael W. Toffel, Jenyfeer Martinez Buitrago and Mariana Cal

This case describes the decarbonization strategy of Arcos Dorados—McDonald’s largest independent franchisee, operating in 20 countries and territories in Latin America and the Caribbean—and how the company measured its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including those... View Details

Keywords: Environmental Accounting; Animal-Based Agribusiness; Plant-Based Agribusiness; Change Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Environmental Sustainability; Food; Growth Management; Supply Chain; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Strategy; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Green Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Latin America; North and Central America; South America

July 2005 (Revised June 2006)
Case

Ryanair Holdings plc

Examines the valuation of an Irish airline that reported its first decline in net income in 2004 and saw a 30% stock price drop on the news. Ryanair is a low-cost, low-fare airline headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, operating over 200 routes in 20 countries. The company... View Details

Keywords: Strategy; International Accounting; Analysis; Valuation; Air Transportation; Forecasting and Prediction; Finance; Air Transportation Industry; Dublin