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      • Faculty Publications  (337)

      Interest Rate RiskRemove Interest Rate Risk →

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      • January 2013 (Revised October 2014)
      • Case

      Barclays and the LIBOR Scandal

      By: Clayton S. Rose and Aldo Sesia
      In June of 2012, Barclays plc admitted that it had manipulated LIBOR—a benchmark interest rate that was fundamental to the operation of international financial markets and that was the basis for trillions of dollars of financial transactions. Between 2005 and 2009... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Systems; Financial Services; Corruption; Regulation; General Management; Management; Leadership; Economic Systems; Crime and Corruption; Ethics; Culture; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; United Kingdom
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      Rose, Clayton S., and Aldo Sesia. "Barclays and the LIBOR Scandal." Harvard Business School Case 313-075, January 2013. (Revised October 2014.)
      • 2013
      • Working Paper

      Securities Litigation Risk for Foreign Companies Listed in the U.S.

      By: Beiting Cheng, Suraj Srinivasan and Gwen Yu
      We study securities litigation risk faced by foreign firms listed on U.S. exchanges. We take into account not only the propensity for foreign firms to commit violations of U.S. securities laws but also the costs that investors face when suing foreign firms. We find... View Details
      Keywords: Litigation Risk; Cross Listing; Bonding; 10b-5; Securities Litigation; U.S.Listing; Class Action; Risk and Uncertainty; Debt Securities; Globalized Firms and Management; Ethics; Lawsuits and Litigation; United States
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      Cheng, Beiting, Suraj Srinivasan, and Gwen Yu. "Securities Litigation Risk for Foreign Companies Listed in the U.S." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 13-036, October 2012. (Revised March 2014.)
      • October 2012 (Revised September 2015)
      • Case

      Altoona State Investment Board: July 2012

      By: Josh Lerner and Nathaniel Burbank
      Considers the decision faced by state pension fund manager Rod Calhoun as he decides whether to invest $200 million in Bain Capital's eleventh global buyout fund: Bain Capital Fund XI. For the fund, Bain was offering its limited partners a choice between three... View Details
      Keywords: Management Fees; Bain Capital; Venture Capital; Private Equity; Leveraged Buyouts; Banking Industry; Boston
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      Lerner, Josh, and Nathaniel Burbank. "Altoona State Investment Board: July 2012." Harvard Business School Case 813-100, October 2012. (Revised September 2015.)
      • October 2012
      • Article

      The Preference for Potential

      By: Zakary L. Tormala, Jayson Jia and Michael I. Norton
      When people seek to impress others, they often do so by highlighting individual achievements. Despite the intuitive appeal of this strategy, we demonstrate that people often prefer potential rather than achievement when evaluating others. Indeed, compared with... View Details
      Keywords: Preferences; Persuasion; Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty; Performance Expectations; Attitudes
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      Tormala, Zakary L., Jayson Jia, and Michael I. Norton. "The Preference for Potential." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 103, no. 4 (October 2012): 567–583.
      • September 2012 (Revised July 2013)
      • Case

      Can the Eurozone Survive?

      By: Dante Roscini and Jonathan Schlefer
      The sovereign debt crisis that took Greece by storm in 2010 began to spread to other European markets. Within a few months Ireland and Portugal had also lost access to the sovereign debt markets and had to rely on supranational loans for their financing. The risk of... View Details
      Keywords: Sovereign Debt Crisis; Currency Areas; Financial Crisis; Borrowing and Debt; Currency Exchange Rate; International Relations; Banking Industry; European Union; Germany; France; Italy; Spain; Greece; Portugal
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      Roscini, Dante, and Jonathan Schlefer. "Can the Eurozone Survive?" Harvard Business School Case 713-034, September 2012. (Revised July 2013.)
      • 2012
      • Working Paper

      Reaching for Yield in the Bond Market

      By: Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina
      Reaching-for-yield—the propensity to buy riskier assets in order to achieve higher yields—is believed to be an important factor contributing to the credit cycle. This paper analyses this phenomenon in the corporate bond market. Specifically, we show evidence for... View Details
      Keywords: Fixed Income; Reaching For Yield; Financial Intermediation; Insurance Companies; Insurance; Bonds; Assets; Risk Management; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Insurance Industry
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      Becker, Bo, and Victoria Ivashina. "Reaching for Yield in the Bond Market." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 12-103, May 2012. (Revised December 2012. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 18909, March 2013)
      • January – March 2012
      • Article

      Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

      By: Luis M. Viceira
      This paper explores time variation in bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yield on... View Details
      Keywords: Bonds; Volatility; Forecasting and Prediction; Interest Rates; Inflation and Deflation; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; Currency Exchange Rate; Cash Flow; Stocks
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      Viceira, Luis M. "Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates." International Journal of Forecasting 28, no. 1 (January–March 2012): 97–117.
      • 2012
      • Article

      The Excess Burden of Government Indecision

      By: Francisco J. Gomes, Laurence J. Kotlikoff and Luis M. Viceira
      Governments are known for procrastinating when it comes to resolving painful policy problems. Whatever the political motives for waiting to decide, procrastination distorts economic decisions relative to what would arise with early policy resolution. In so doing, it... View Details
      Keywords: Saving; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Portfolio; Decision Choices and Conditions; Retirement; Policy; Government and Politics
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      Gomes, Francisco J., Laurence J. Kotlikoff, and Luis M. Viceira. "The Excess Burden of Government Indecision." Tax Policy and the Economy 26 (2012): 125–163.
      • December 2011
      • Article

      Do Powerful Politicians Cause Corporate Downsizing?

      By: Lauren Cohen, Joshua Coval and Christopher J. Malloy
      This paper employs a new empirical approach for identifying the impact of government spending on the private sector. Our key innovation is to use changes in congressional committee chairmanship as a source of exogenous variation in state-level federal expenditures. In... View Details
      Keywords: Spending; Private Sector; Taxation; Innovation and Invention; Interest Rates; Business and Government Relations; Investment; Employment; Power and Influence
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      Cohen, Lauren, Joshua Coval, and Christopher J. Malloy. "Do Powerful Politicians Cause Corporate Downsizing?" Journal of Political Economy 119, no. 6 (December 2011): 1015–1060. (Click here for a response to Snyder and Welch, click here for the data, and click here for the code.)
      • Article

      Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis

      By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
      This paper empirically analyzes the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) in inflation-indexed (or real) bonds and in nominal bonds in the U.S. and in the U.K. We strongly reject the EH in inflation-indexed bonds and also confirm and update the existing evidence rejecting the... View Details
      Keywords: TIPS; Breakeven Inflation; Return Predictability; Bond Risk Premia; Risk Management; Bonds; Financial Liquidity; Inflation and Deflation; United Kingdom; United States
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      Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis." Annual Review of Financial Economics 3 (2011): 139–158.
      • 2011
      • Working Paper

      The Cost of Capital for Alternative Investments

      By: Jakub W. Jurek and Erik Stafford
      This paper studies the cost of capital for alternative investments. We document that the risk profile of the aggregate hedge fund universe can be accurately matched by a simple index put option writing strategy that offers monthly liquidity and complete transparency... View Details
      Keywords: Cost of Capital; Financial Liquidity; Investment; Investment Return; Mathematical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Jurek, Jakub W., and Erik Stafford. "The Cost of Capital for Alternative Investments." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 12-013, September 2011. (NBER Working Paper Series, No. 19643, November 2013.)
      • 2011
      • Chapter

      The Economics of Housing Finance Reform

      By: David S. Scharfstein and Adi Sunderam
      This paper analyzes the two leading types of proposals for reform of the housing finance system: (i) broad-based, explicit, priced government guarantees of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and (ii) privatization. Both proposals have drawbacks. Properly-priced... View Details
      Keywords: Economics; Housing; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Policy; Government and Politics
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      Scharfstein, David S., and Adi Sunderam. "The Economics of Housing Finance Reform." In The Future of Housing Finance: Restructuring the U.S. Residential Mortgage Market, edited by Martin Neil Baily. Brookings Institution Press, 2011.
      • July 2011
      • Article

      The Private Equity Advantage: Leveraged Buyout Firms and Relationship Banking

      By: Victoria Ivashina and Anna Kovner
      This paper examines the impact of leveraged buyout firms' bank relationships on the terms of their syndicated loans. Using a sample of 1,590 loans financing private equity sponsored leveraged buyouts between 1993 and 2005, we find that bank relationships are an... View Details
      Keywords: Leveraged Buyouts; Private Equity; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Interest Rates; Investment Return; Relationships; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry
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      Ivashina, Victoria, and Anna Kovner. "The Private Equity Advantage: Leveraged Buyout Firms and Relationship Banking." Review of Financial Studies 24, no. 7 (July 2011): 2462–2498.
      • June 28, 2011
      • Article

      Using Implementation Intentions Prompts to Enhance Influenza Vaccination Rates

      By: Katherine L Milkman, John Beshears, James J. Choi, David Laibson and Brigitte C. Madrian
      We evaluate the results of a field experiment designed to measure the effect of prompts to form implementation intentions on realized behavioral outcomes. The outcome of interest is influenza vaccination receipt at free on-site clinics offered by a large firm to its... View Details
      Keywords: Behavioral Economics; Nudge; Libertarian Paternalism; Public Health; Flu Shot; Behavior; Consumer Behavior; Health Care and Treatment; Cognition and Thinking
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      Milkman, Katherine L., John Beshears, James J. Choi, David Laibson, and Brigitte C. Madrian. "Using Implementation Intentions Prompts to Enhance Influenza Vaccination Rates." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108, no. 26 (June 28, 2011): 10415–10420.
      • June 2011
      • Case

      Steering Monetary Policy Through Unprecedented Crises

      By: David Moss and Cole Bolton
      In early April 2008, economic conditions in Europe appeared to be deteriorating on almost all fronts: sales figures were falling, business and consumer confidence were slumping, forecasts for European growth were being revised downward, and inflation was rising. In... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Institutions; Interest Rates; Policy
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      Moss, David, and Cole Bolton. "Steering Monetary Policy Through Unprecedented Crises." Harvard Business School Case 711-048, June 2011.
      • April 2011 (Revised February 2013)
      • Background Note

      How Government Debt Accumulates

      By: Dante Roscini and Jonathan Schlefer
      This note discusses the economics of government-debt accumulation. Fiscal deficits are only part of the picture; other factors include the level of debt as a percent of nominal GDP; the interest rate; the inflation rate; the growth rate; and changes in the exchange... View Details
      Keywords: Government and Politics; Borrowing and Debt
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      Roscini, Dante, and Jonathan Schlefer. "How Government Debt Accumulates." Harvard Business School Background Note 711-087, April 2011. (Revised February 2013.)
      • 2013
      • Working Paper

      Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity

      By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
      Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence... View Details
      Keywords: Expectations Hypothesis; Term Structure; Real Interest Rate Risk; Inflation Risk; Inflation-Indexed Bonds; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Liquidity; Bonds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; United Kingdom; United States
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      Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-094, March 2011. (Revised September 2013.)
      • 2011
      • Working Paper

      Do Powerful Politicians Cause Corporate Downsizing?

      By: Lauren H. Cohen, Joshua D. Coval and Christopher J. Malloy
      This paper employs a new empirical approach for identifying the impact of government spending on the private sector. Our key innovation is to use changes in congressional committee chairmanship as a source of exogenous variation in state-level federal expenditures. In... View Details
      Keywords: Economic Growth; Investment; Spending; Government Administration; Employment; Managerial Roles
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      Cohen, Lauren H., Joshua D. Coval, and Christopher J. Malloy. "Do Powerful Politicians Cause Corporate Downsizing?" NBER Working Paper Series, No. 15839, March 2011.
      • March 2011
      • Article

      Institutional Demand Pressure and the Cost of Corporate Loans

      By: Victoria Ivashina and Zheng Sun
      Between 2001 and 2007, annual institutional funding in highly leveraged loans went up from $32 billion to $426 billion, accounting for nearly 70% of the jump in total syndicated loan issuance over the same period. Did the inflow of institutional funding in the... View Details
      Keywords: Leveraged Buyouts; Financial Crisis; Credit; Debt Securities; Financing and Loans; Interest Rates; Investment
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      Ivashina, Victoria, and Zheng Sun. "Institutional Demand Pressure and the Cost of Corporate Loans." Journal of Financial Economics 99, no. 3 (March 2011): 500–522.
      • December 2010
      • Background Note

      Risk and Reward in Venture Capital

      By: William A. Sahlman
      This note describes the payoff structure of investment in individual venture capital–backed companies and in venture capital portfolios. Venture Capital investments are characterized by high failure rate (0ver 50%) and a small number of given successes (greater than... View Details
      Keywords: Capital Markets; Venture Capital; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Analytics and Data Science; Failure; Performance; Information Technology
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      Sahlman, William A. "Risk and Reward in Venture Capital." Harvard Business School Background Note 811-036, December 2010.
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