Publications

January 2014
Article

Self-reported Ethical Risk Taking Tendencies Predict Actual Dishonesty

By: Liora Zimerman, Shaul Shalvi and Yoella Bereby-Meyer

Are people honest about the extent to which they engage in unethical behaviors? We report an experiment examining the relation between self-reported risky unethical tendencies and actual dishonest behavior. Participants’ self-reported risk taking tendencies were... View Details

Keywords: DOSPERT; Risk Taking; Honesty; Lying; Dishonesty; Unethical Behavior; Moral Sensibility; Cognition and Thinking

1972
Chapter

Optimal Utilization of Market Forecasts and the Evaluation of Portfolio Performance

By: Michael Jensen

Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation

SSRN

January 1996
Article

Real Business Cycle Models and the Forecastable Movements in Output, Hours and Consumption

By: J. J. Rotemberg and Michael Woodford

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction

fall 2007
Article

Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts

By: Vishal Gaur, Saravanan Kesavan, Ananth Raman and Marshall L. Fisher

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Judgments; Forecasting and Prediction

August 2020 (Revised September 2020)
Technical Note

Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models

By: Michael W. Toffel, Natalie Epstein, Kris Ferreira and Yael Grushka-Cockayne

The note introduces a variety of methods to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models. The note begins by briefly introducing machine learning, overfitting, training versus test datasets, and cross validation. The following accuracy metrics and tools... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Statistics; Econometric Analyses; Experimental Methods; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Mathematical Methods

Educators

Purchase

09 Feb 2007
Working Paper Summaries

Do Corporate Social Responsibility Ratings Predict Corporate Social Performance?

Keywords: by Aaron K. Chatterji, David I. Levine & Michael W. Toffel

May 2018
Article

The Amount and Source of Millionaires' Wealth (Moderately) Predicts Their Happiness

By: Grant Edward Donnelly, Tianyi Zheng, Emily Haisley and Michael I. Norton

Two samples of more than 4,000 millionaires reveal two primary findings. First, only at high levels of wealth—in excess of $8 million (Study 1) and $10 million (Study 2)—are wealthier millionaires happier than millionaires with lower levels of wealth, though these... View Details

Keywords: Income; Well-being; Happiness; Wealth; Money; Attitudes; Situation or Environment

June 2014
Case

Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A)

By: Mihir A. Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer

By the end of 2013, Apple had $137 billion dollars in cash and marketable securities. This case explores how companies can generate such large amounts of cash and how and if they should distribute it to shareholders, especially in the face of shareholder pressure. In... View Details

Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland

Educators

Article

The Wisdom of Competitive Crowds

By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Phillip E. Pfeifer

When several individuals are asked to forecast an uncertain quantity, they often face implicit or explicit incentives to be the most accurate. Despite the desire to elicit honest forecasts, such competition induces forecasters to report strategically and nontruthfully.... View Details

Keywords: Forecast; Forecasting and Prediction

August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
Supplement

Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (B)

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler

Supplements the (A) case. In this case, Wehunt and Morse are concerned about the logistic regression model overfitting to the training data, so they explore two methods for reducing the sensitivity of the model to the data by regularizing the coefficients of the... View Details

Keywords: Data Science; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Customers; Household; Forecasting and Prediction

Purchase

January 2019
Article

Bubbles for Fama

By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You

We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio... View Details

Keywords: Bubble; Market Efficiency; Predictability; Price Bubble; Stocks; Price; Forecasting and Prediction

Article

Interpretable Decision Sets: A Joint Framework for Description and Prediction

By: Himabindu Lakkaraju, Stephen H. Bach and Jure Leskovec

November 2023
Article

Knowledge About the Source of Emotion Predicts Emotion-Regulation Attempts, Strategies, and Perceived Emotion-Regulation Success

By: Yael Millgram, Matthew K. Nock, David D. Bailey and Amit Goldenberg

People’s ability to regulate emotions is crucial to healthy emotional functioning. One overlooked aspect in emotion-regulation research is that knowledge about the source of emotions can vary across situations and individuals, which could impact people’s ability to... View Details

Keywords: Emotions; Personal Characteristics; Well-being

2023
Chapter

Analyzing Human Decisions and Machine Predictions in Bail Decision Making

By: Jon Kleinberg, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig and Sendhil Mullainathan

BOOK ABSTRACT: Oriented toward the introductory student, The Inequality Reader is the essential textbook for today's undergraduate courses. The editors have assembled the most important classic and contemporary readings about how poverty and inequality are... View Details

Keywords: Equality and Inequality

April 2021 (Revised August 2021)
Case

Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI (A)

By: Navid Mojir and Gamze Yucaoglu

Borusan Cat is an international distributor of Caterpillar heavy machines. Esra Durgun (Director of Strategy, Digitization, and Innovation) and Ozgur Gunaydin (CEO) seem to have bet their careers on developing Muneccim, a new predictive technology that is designed to... View Details

Keywords: Monetization Strategy; Artificial Intelligence; AI; Forecasting and Prediction; Applications and Software; Technological Innovation; Marketing; Segmentation; AI and Machine Learning; Construction Industry; Turkey