Forecasting and Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research

Historically, neither the creators nor the distributors of cultural products such as books or movies have used analytics -- data, statistics, predictive modeling -- to determine the likely success of their offerings. Instead, companies relied on the brilliance of... View Details

Keywords: Product Development; Creativity; Customer Satisfaction; Forecasting and Prediction; Markets; Business Model; Motion Pictures and Video Industry; Motion Pictures and Video Industry

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Article

Physical and Situational Inequality on Airplanes Predict Air Rage

By: K. A. DeCelles and Michael I. Norton

We posit that the modern airplane is a social microcosm of class-based society, and that the increasing incidence of “air rage” can be understood through the lens of inequality. Research on inequality typically examines the effects of relatively fixed, macrostructural... View Details

Keywords: Physical Inequality; Equality and Inequality; Behavior; Air Transportation; Situation or Environment

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20 Jun 2016
News

When Predicting Other People's Preferences, You're Probably Wrong

Editorial

The Power of Precise Predictions

By: Philip E. Tetlock and J. Peter Scoblic

Keywords: Politics; Foreign Policy; Forecasting and Prediction; Globalization; Policy; Government and Politics

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2005
Article

Airline Security, the Failure of 9/11, and Predictable Surprises

By: M. Bazerman and M. Watkins

Keywords: National Security; Failure

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April 1966
Article

A Two-Stage Forecasting Model: Exponential Smoothing and Multiple Regression

By: D. B. Crane and James R. Crotty

Keywords: Mathematical Methods

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06 Apr 2022
News

How to Use Correlation to Make Predictions

January 2016 (Revised March 2016)
Case

Whither the Weather (Company): Forecasting 2016

By: Rosabeth Moss Kanter and Jonathan Cohen

CEO David Kenny led the transformation of the Weather Company from a television business to a Big Data technology company from 2012 until 2016, when IBM acquired its digital assets. This case discusses major decisions taken by Kenny starting in 2014 as he sought to... View Details

Keywords: Weather Company; IBM; Digital; Technology; David Kenny; Television; Weather Channel; Legacy Business; Mainstream; Newstream; Reorganization; Acquisitions; Transformation; Information Technology; Television Entertainment; Acquisition; Consolidation; Change; Leadership

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Political Forecasting as a Management Tool

By: James E. Austin and David Yoffie

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Government and Politics; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques

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April 2010
Teaching Note

Four Products (2008): Predicting Diffusion (TN)

By: John T. Gourville

Teaching Note for 508103. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing; Innovation and Invention; Demand and Consumers

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January 2014
Article

Self-reported Ethical Risk Taking Tendencies Predict Actual Dishonesty

By: Liora Zimerman, Shaul Shalvi and Yoella Bereby-Meyer

Are people honest about the extent to which they engage in unethical behaviors? We report an experiment examining the relation between self-reported risky unethical tendencies and actual dishonest behavior. Participants’ self-reported risk taking tendencies were... View Details

Keywords: DOSPERT; Risk Taking; Honesty; Lying; Dishonesty; Unethical Behavior; Moral Sensibility; Cognition and Thinking

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