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- All HBS Web
(3,295)
- News (517)
- Research (2,505)
- Events (43)
- Multimedia (18)
- Faculty Publications (1,609)
Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(3,295)
- News (517)
- Research (2,505)
- Events (43)
- Multimedia (18)
- Faculty Publications (1,609)
- October 2008
- Article
The Effect of Macro Information Environment Change on the Quality of Management Earnings Forecasts
The 1990s were characterized by substantial increases in the performance of and investor reliance on financial analysts. Because managers possess superior private information and issue forecasts to align investors' expectations with their own, we predict that... View Details
Keywords: Information; Performance Expectations; Earnings Management; Financial Reporting; Forecasting and Prediction
Baginski, Stephen P., John M. Hassell, and Michael D. Kimbrough. "The Effect of Macro Information Environment Change on the Quality of Management Earnings Forecasts." Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting 31, no. 3 (October 2008): 311–330.
- Article
Quantile Evaluation, Sensitivity to Bracketing, and Sharing Business Payoffs
By: Y. Grushka-Cockayne, K. C. Lichtendahl, V.R.R. Jose and R.L. Winkler
From forecasting competitions to conditional value-at-risk requirements, the use of multiple quantile assessments is growing in practice. To evaluate them, we use a rule from the general class of proper scoring rules for a forecaster’s multiple quantiles of a single... View Details
Grushka-Cockayne, Y., K. C. Lichtendahl, V.R.R. Jose, and R.L. Winkler. "Quantile Evaluation, Sensitivity to Bracketing, and Sharing Business Payoffs." Operations Research 65, no. 3 (May–June 2017): 712–728.
- May 2019
- Case
Ride-Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber's Growth
By: Elie Ofek, Eitan Muller and Barak Libai
Ofek, Elie, Eitan Muller, and Barak Libai. "Ride-Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber's Growth." Harvard Business School Case 519-097, May 2019.
- October 1982
- Case
Data Resources, Inc.: The Tire-Production Forecast
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Data Resources, Inc.: The Tire-Production Forecast." Harvard Business School Case 183-096, October 1982.
- 21 Feb 2014
- News
Why Rational People Can’t Succeed as Economic Forecasters
- 24 Sep 2020
- News
Financial Meltdowns Are More Predictable Than We Thought
- 1999
- Working Paper
Positive Illusions and Forecasting Errors in Mutual Fund Investment Decisions
By: Don A. Moore, Terri Kurtzberg, Craig R. Fox and Max Bazerman
- Article
Political Forecasting as a Management Tool
By: James E. Austin and David Yoffie
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Government and Politics; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques
Austin, James E., and David Yoffie. "Political Forecasting as a Management Tool." Journal of Forecasting 3, no. 4 (October–December 1984).
- August 2021
- Case
Precision Paint Co.
Describes a marketing director about to launch a new process for demand forecasting. Provides data that allow students to do a multivariable regression analysis. A rewritten version of an earlier case. View Details
Bojinov, Iavor I., Chiara Farronato, Janice H. Hammond, Michael Parzen, and Paul Hamilton. "Precision Paint Co." Harvard Business School Case 622-055, August 2021.
- Editorial
The Power of Precise Predictions
By: Philip E. Tetlock and J. Peter Scoblic
Keywords: Politics; Foreign Policy; Forecasting and Prediction; Globalization; Policy; Government and Politics
Tetlock, Philip E., and J. Peter Scoblic. "The Power of Precise Predictions." New York Times (October 4, 2015), SR10.
- July– September 2002
- Article
Predictive Value and the Usefulness of Game Theoretic Models
By: Ido Erev, Alvin E. Roth, Robert L. Slonim and Greg Barron
Erev, Ido, Alvin E. Roth, Robert L. Slonim, and Greg Barron. "Predictive Value and the Usefulness of Game Theoretic Models." International Journal of Forecasting 18, no. 3 (July– September 2002): 359–368.
- 2005
- Article
Airline Security, the Failure of 9/11, and Predictable Surprises
By: M. Bazerman and M. Watkins
Bazerman, M., and M. Watkins. "Airline Security, the Failure of 9/11, and Predictable Surprises." International Public Management Journal 8, no. 3 (2005): 365–377.
- December 2021
- Article
Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight
By: Aticus Peterson and Andy Wu
We study how learning by experience across projects affects an entrepreneur's strategic foresight. In a quantitative study of 314 entrepreneurs across 722 crowdfunded projects supplemented with a program of qualitative interviews, we counterintuitively find that... View Details
Keywords: Crowdfunding; Experience; Prediction; Timeline; Complexity; Entrepreneurship; Learning; Experience and Expertise; Forecasting and Prediction
Peterson, Aticus, and Andy Wu. "Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight." Art. 1. Strategic Management Journal 42, no. 13 (December 2021): 2357–2388. (Lead article.)
- January 1996
- Article
Real Business Cycle Models and the Forecastable Movements in Output, Hours and Consumption
By: J. J. Rotemberg and Michael Woodford
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
Rotemberg, J. J., and Michael Woodford. "Real Business Cycle Models and the Forecastable Movements in Output, Hours and Consumption." American Economic Review 86, no. 1 (January 1996): 71–89.
- 06 Apr 2022
- News
How to Use Correlation to Make Predictions
- 20 Jun 2016
- News
When Predicting Other People's Preferences, You're Probably Wrong
- 2009
- Case
What People Want (and How to Predict It)
By: Thomas H. Davenport and Jeanne G. Harris
Historically, neither the creators nor the distributors of cultural products such as books or movies have used analytics -- data, statistics, predictive modeling -- to determine the likely success of their offerings. Instead, companies relied on the brilliance of... View Details
Keywords: Product Development; Creativity; Customer Satisfaction; Forecasting and Prediction; Markets; Business Model; Motion Pictures and Video Industry; Motion Pictures and Video Industry
Davenport, Thomas H., and Jeanne G. Harris. "What People Want (and How to Predict It)." 2009.
- 01 Feb 2002
- News
Europe Business Conference Forecasts the Future
a New Yorker. In the business world, Hannezo predicted that synergies will continue to develop between Europe and the United States, thanks to a shared system of values and a... View Details
- January 2014
- Article
Self-reported Ethical Risk Taking Tendencies Predict Actual Dishonesty
By: Liora Zimerman, Shaul Shalvi and Yoella Bereby-Meyer
Are people honest about the extent to which they engage in unethical behaviors? We report an experiment examining the relation between self-reported risky unethical tendencies and actual dishonest behavior. Participants’ self-reported risk taking tendencies were... View Details
Keywords: DOSPERT; Risk Taking; Honesty; Lying; Dishonesty; Unethical Behavior; Moral Sensibility; Cognition and Thinking
Zimerman, Liora, Shaul Shalvi, and Yoella Bereby-Meyer. "Self-reported Ethical Risk Taking Tendencies Predict Actual Dishonesty." Judgment and Decision Making 9, no. 1 (January 2014): 58–64.