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  • 08 Feb 2011
  • First Look

First Look: Feb. 8

estimates. The goal of the framework is to focus the analysts' work on critical uncertainties and model a limited number of scenarios relevant to key investment debates. By outlining a bear, base, and a bull case, the analysts can present... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 2016
  • Working Paper

The Impact of Supplier Inventory Service Level on Retailer Demand

By: Nathan Craig, Nicole DeHoratius and Ananth Raman
To set inventory service levels, suppliers must understand how changes in inventory service level affect demand. We build on prior research, which uses analytical models and laboratory experiments to study the impact of a supplier's service level on demand from... View Details
Keywords: Customer Satisfaction; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Consumer Behavior; Service Delivery; Performance Expectations; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Service Industry
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  • October 2017 (Revised April 2018)
  • Case

Improving Worker Safety in the Era of Machine Learning (A)

By: Michael W. Toffel, Dan Levy, Jose Ramon Morales Arilla and Matthew S. Johnson
Managers make predictions all the time: How fast will my markets grow? How much inventory do I need? How intensively should I monitor my suppliers? Which potential customers will be most responsive to a particular marketing campaign? Which job candidates should I... View Details
Keywords: Machine Learning; Policy Implementation; Empirical Research; Inspection; Occupational Safety; Occupational Health; Regulation; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Policy; Operations; Supply Chain Management; Safety; Manufacturing Industry; Construction Industry; United States
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  • 14 Oct 2021
  • In Practice

Reunited and It Feels (Not) So Good: Tips for Managing a Rocky Return

widespread and the timing and nature of the end of the virus as we know it so uncertain that it is impossible to know what the parameters of such an end state. Business leaders should, instead, think in terms of a “next normal.” Their back-to-work policies should... View Details
Keywords: by Kristen Senz
  • January 2010
  • Journal Article

A Choice Prediction Competition: Choices from Experience and from Description

By: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert, Alvin E. Roth, Ernan E. Haruvy, Stefan Herzog, Robin Hau, Ralph Hertwig, Terrence Steward, Robert West and Christian Lebiere
Erev, Ert, and Roth organized three choice prediction competitions focused on three related choice tasks: one-shot decisions from description (decisions under risk), one-shot decisions from experience, and repeated decisions from experience. Each competition was based... View Details
Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty; Competition
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  • 08 Jun 2010
  • First Look

First Look: June 8

to accomplish the following: mine your sales data to identify "homerun" products you're missing; reinvent your forecasting and pricing strategies; build end-to-end agility into your supply chain; establish incentives that align... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 12 Jul 2011
  • First Look

First Look: July 12

debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the financing costs... View Details
Keywords: Carmen Nobel
  • 13 Nov 2019
  • Research & Ideas

Don't Turn Your Marketing Function Over to AI Just Yet

factors that influence consumer behavior are so varied and complex, and the data that companies collect is so rich, just modeling how consumers search a single retail website is a monumental task. Each company’s data are so firm and... View Details
Keywords: by Kristen Senz
  • 2012
  • Working Paper

~Why Do We Redistribute so Much but Tag so Little? Normative Diversity, Equal Sacrifice and Optimal Taxation

By: Matthew Weinzierl
Tagging is a free lunch in conventional optimal tax theory because it eases the classic tradeoff between efficiency and equality. But tagging is used in only limited ways in tax policy. I propose one explanation: conventional optimal tax theory has yet to capture the... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Framework; Policy; Taxation; Analytics and Data Science; Performance Efficiency; United States
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  • 15 Jul 2019
  • Book

Many Executives Are Afraid of Finance. Here's How They Can Gain Confidence

and free cash flow. The emphasis on cash helps explain how firms have changed their supply chains and how working capital has become a significant financial benefit to major firms ranging from Apple to Walmart. Similarly, emphasizing cash can help explain the promise... View Details
Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman
  • 21 Feb 2012
  • First Look

First Look: Feb. 21

entrepreneurship. Then, to reconcile these divergent empirical findings, we develop a theoretical model that explains when user innovations are commercialized by users, by manufacturers, or not commercialized at all. At the core of our... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • October 2007
  • Journal Article

Psychosocial Development and Leader Performance of Military Officer Cadets

By: Scott Snook and Paul T. Bartone
Efforts to educate and develop future military officers aim to produce highly competent, ethical and effective leaders to serve the nation. But while there is general agreement about desired outcomes, the underlying developmental processes associated with these... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Leadership Development; Performance Evaluation; Personal Development and Career; Social Psychology
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  • January 2010
  • Article

The Role of Experience in the Gambler's Fallacy

By: Greg Barron and Stephen Leider
Recent papers have demonstrated that the way people acquire information about a decision problem, by experience or by abstract description, can affect their behavior. We examined the role of experience over time in the emergence of the Gambler's Fallacy in binary... View Details
Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Acquisition; Outcome or Result; Game Theory; Prejudice and Bias
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  • 16 May 2000
  • Research & Ideas

Getting the Message: How the Internet is Changing Advertising

that marketers began to think of the Web as an advertising medium, U.S. Internet advertisers spent $940 million; a year later, that number had almost doubled, and some put it as high as $4 billion in 1999. Forecasts on what lies ahead are... View Details
Keywords: by Susan Young
  • 10 Oct 2011
  • Research & Ideas

Retailing Revolution: Category Killers on the Brink

productivity would improve—especially as the bricks-and-clicks retail model worked in an increasingly coordinated manner to offer the consumer a seamless shopping experience. The Internet Threat While recent retail sales figures seem to... View Details
Keywords: by Rajiv Lal & Jose B. Alvarez; Retail
  • 01 Oct 2013
  • First Look

First Look: October 1

Management Strategy Ex-Ante Agreements in Standard Setting and Patent Pool Formation By: Llanes, Gastón, and Joaquín Poblete Abstract—We present a model of standard setting and patent-pool formation. We study the effects of alternative... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 18 Jul 2019
  • Lessons from the Classroom

The Internet of Things Needs a Business Model. Here It Is

sensors can be combined with weather forecasting to help energy companies figure out the optimal amount of electricity they should sell into the grid. “Very little human intervention is needed,” Lal says. Other companies have been... View Details
Keywords: by Michael Blanding; Computer
  • 28 May 2020
  • Research & Ideas

Coronavirus Could Create a 'Bankruptcy Pandemic'

economic recovery. Will any of these positive developments materialize? The fact is, forecasting the number of bankruptcies presents the same modeling challenges as forecasting... View Details
Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman; Financial Services; Banking
  • Research Summary

Overview

The overarching goal of my research is to produce works that are influential and informative to both academics and practitioners in the field of operations management. To accomplish this, I collaborate with industry partners who provide knowledge about their field,... View Details
  • 16 Oct 2018
  • First Look

New Research and Ideas, October 16, 2018

Grushka-Cockayne Abstract—We introduce an exponential smoothing model that a manager can use to forecast the demand of a new product or service. The model has five features... View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

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