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  • All HBS Web  (3,380)
    • News  (517)
    • Research  (2,489)
    • Events  (43)
    • Multimedia  (18)
  • Faculty Publications  (1,610)
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  • May 2019
  • Case

Ride-Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber's Growth

By: Elie Ofek, Eitan Muller and Barak Libai
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Ofek, Elie, Eitan Muller, and Barak Libai. "Ride-Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber's Growth." Harvard Business School Case 519-097, May 2019.
  • Article

Mining Big Data to Extract Patterns and Predict Real-Life Outcomes

By: Michal Kosinki, Yilun Wang, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Jure Leskovec
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Kosinki, Michal, Yilun Wang, Himabindu Lakkaraju, and Jure Leskovec. "Mining Big Data to Extract Patterns and Predict Real-Life Outcomes." Psychological Methods 21, no. 4 (December 2016): 493–506.
  • August 2020 (Revised September 2020)
  • Technical Note

Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models

By: Michael W. Toffel, Natalie Epstein, Kris Ferreira and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
The note introduces a variety of methods to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models. The note begins by briefly introducing machine learning, overfitting, training versus test datasets, and cross validation. The following accuracy metrics and tools... View Details
Keywords: Machine Learning; Statistics; Econometric Analyses; Experimental Methods; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Mathematical Methods
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Toffel, Michael W., Natalie Epstein, Kris Ferreira, and Yael Grushka-Cockayne. "Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models." Harvard Business School Technical Note 621-045, August 2020. (Revised September 2020.)
  • Article

Political Forecasting as a Management Tool

By: James E. Austin and David Yoffie
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Government and Politics; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques
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Austin, James E., and David Yoffie. "Political Forecasting as a Management Tool." Journal of Forecasting 3, no. 4 (October–December 1984).
  • May 2018
  • Article

The Amount and Source of Millionaires' Wealth (Moderately) Predicts Their Happiness

By: Grant Edward Donnelly, Tianyi Zheng, Emily Haisley and Michael I. Norton
Two samples of more than 4,000 millionaires reveal two primary findings. First, only at high levels of wealth—in excess of $8 million (Study 1) and $10 million (Study 2)—are wealthier millionaires happier than millionaires with lower levels of wealth, though these... View Details
Keywords: Income; Well-being; Happiness; Wealth; Money; Attitudes; Situation or Environment
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Donnelly, Grant Edward, Tianyi Zheng, Emily Haisley, and Michael I. Norton. "The Amount and Source of Millionaires' Wealth (Moderately) Predicts Their Happiness." Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 44, no. 5 (May 2018): 684–699.
  • January 1996
  • Article

Real Business Cycle Models and the Forecastable Movements in Output, Hours and Consumption

By: J. J. Rotemberg and Michael Woodford
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
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Rotemberg, J. J., and Michael Woodford. "Real Business Cycle Models and the Forecastable Movements in Output, Hours and Consumption." American Economic Review 86, no. 1 (January 1996): 71–89.
  • May 1981
  • Supplement

Stride Rite: Demand Forecasting Process (B)

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Apparel and Accessories Industry
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Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Stride Rite: Demand Forecasting Process (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 181-123, May 1981.
  • August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
  • Supplement

Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (B)

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
Supplements the (A) case. In this case, Wehunt and Morse are concerned about the logistic regression model overfitting to the training data, so they explore two methods for reducing the sensitivity of the model to the data by regularizing the coefficients of the... View Details
Keywords: Data Science; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Customers; Household; Forecasting and Prediction
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Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 119-026, August 2018. (Revised September 2018.)
  • fall 2007
  • Article

Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts

By: Vishal Gaur, Saravanan Kesavan, Ananth Raman and Marshall L. Fisher
Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Judgments; Forecasting and Prediction
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Gaur, Vishal, Saravanan Kesavan, Ananth Raman, and Marshall L. Fisher. "Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 9, no. 4 (fall 2007).
  • January 2019
  • Article

Bubbles for Fama

By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You
We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio... View Details
Keywords: Bubble; Market Efficiency; Predictability; Price Bubble; Stocks; Price; Forecasting and Prediction
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Greenwood, Robin, Andrei Shleifer, and Yang You. "Bubbles for Fama." Journal of Financial Economics 131, no. 1 (January 2019): 20–43. (Internet Appendix Here.)
  • Article

Interpretable Decision Sets: A Joint Framework for Description and Prediction

By: Himabindu Lakkaraju, Stephen H. Bach and Jure Leskovec
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Lakkaraju, Himabindu, Stephen H. Bach, and Jure Leskovec. "Interpretable Decision Sets: A Joint Framework for Description and Prediction." Proceedings of the ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining 22nd (2016).
  • Article

The Wisdom of Competitive Crowds

By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Phillip E. Pfeifer
When several individuals are asked to forecast an uncertain quantity, they often face implicit or explicit incentives to be the most accurate. Despite the desire to elicit honest forecasts, such competition induces forecasters to report strategically and nontruthfully.... View Details
Keywords: Forecast; Forecasting and Prediction
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Lichtendahl, Kenneth C., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Phillip E. Pfeifer. "The Wisdom of Competitive Crowds." Operations Research 61, no. 6 (November–December 2013): 1383–1398. (*Finalist in the Decision Analysis Society Publication Award, 2015.)
  • 2023
  • Chapter

Analyzing Human Decisions and Machine Predictions in Bail Decision Making

By: Jon Kleinberg, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig and Sendhil Mullainathan
BOOK ABSTRACT: Oriented toward the introductory student, The Inequality Reader is the essential textbook for today's undergraduate courses. The editors have assembled the most important classic and contemporary readings about how poverty and inequality are... View Details
Keywords: Equality and Inequality
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Kleinberg, Jon, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig, and Sendhil Mullainathan. "Analyzing Human Decisions and Machine Predictions in Bail Decision Making." In The Inequality Reader: Contemporary and Foundational Readings in Race, Class, and Gender. 3rd edition, edited by David B. Grusky and Szonja Szelényi. Routledge, forthcoming.
  • 09 Feb 2007
  • Working Paper Summaries

Do Corporate Social Responsibility Ratings Predict Corporate Social Performance?

Keywords: by Aaron K. Chatterji, David I. Levine & Michael W. Toffel
  • 15 Aug 2016
  • Research & Ideas

Black Swans and Big Trends Can Ruin Anyone's Internet Prediction

how we thought about online opportunities one year after the dot-com bubble burst. In retrospect, many of my thoughts about the internet’s future evolution missed the mark. If you think history repeats itself, then these forecasting... View Details
Keywords: by Thomas R. Eisenmann; Technology
  • 2013
  • Article

What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting

By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, Andreas Fuster, David Laibson and Brigitte C. Madrian
Do laboratory subjects correctly perceive the dynamics of a mean-reverting time series? In our experiment, subjects receive historical data and make forecasts at different horizons. The time series process that we use features short-run momentum and long-run partial... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cognition and Thinking
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Beshears, John, James J. Choi, Andreas Fuster, David Laibson, and Brigitte C. Madrian. "What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 103, no. 3 (May 2013): 570–574.
  • June 2014
  • Case

Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A)

By: Mihir A. Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer
By the end of 2013, Apple had $137 billion dollars in cash and marketable securities. This case explores how companies can generate such large amounts of cash and how and if they should distribute it to shareholders, especially in the face of shareholder pressure. In... View Details
Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland
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Desai, Mihir A., and Elizabeth A. Meyer. "Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A)." Harvard Business School Case 214-085, June 2014.
  • August 1999
  • Article

Positive Illusions and Biases of Prediction in Mutual Fund Investment Decisions

By: D. A. Moore, T. R. Kurtzberg, C. R. Fox and M. H. Bazerman
Keywords: Investment; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction
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Moore, D. A., T. R. Kurtzberg, C. R. Fox, and M. H. Bazerman. "Positive Illusions and Biases of Prediction in Mutual Fund Investment Decisions." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 79, no. 2 (August 1999): 95–114.
  • October 17, 2022
  • Article

Relational Diversity in Social Portfolios Predicts Well-Being

By: Hanne K. Collins, Serena F. Hagerty, Jordi Quoidbach, Michael I. Norton and Alison Wood Brooks
We document a link between the relational diversity of one’s social portfolio—the richness and evenness of relationship types across one’s social interactions—and well-being. Across four distinct samples, respondents from the United States who completed a preregistered... View Details
Keywords: Social Interaction; Social Engagement; Well-being; Happiness; Social and Collaborative Networks; Family and Family Relationships
Citation
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Collins, Hanne K., Serena F. Hagerty, Jordi Quoidbach, Michael I. Norton, and Alison Wood Brooks. "Relational Diversity in Social Portfolios Predicts Well-Being." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 43 (October 17, 2022).
  • January 1982
  • Case

New York Telephone Co.: The 1975 Revenue Forecast

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Revenue; Telecommunications Industry
Citation
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Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "New York Telephone Co.: The 1975 Revenue Forecast." Harvard Business School Case 182-060, January 1982.
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