Publications

August 2020 (Revised September 2020)
Technical Note

Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models

By: Michael W. Toffel, Natalie Epstein, Kris Ferreira and Yael Grushka-Cockayne

The note introduces a variety of methods to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models. The note begins by briefly introducing machine learning, overfitting, training versus test datasets, and cross validation. The following accuracy metrics and tools... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Statistics; Econometric Analyses; Experimental Methods; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Mathematical Methods

Educators

April 2010
Teaching Note

Four Products (2008): Predicting Diffusion (TN)

By: John T. Gourville

Teaching Note for 508103. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing; Innovation and Invention; Demand and Consumers

Article

Mining Big Data to Extract Patterns and Predict Real-Life Outcomes

By: Michal Kosinki, Yilun Wang, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Jure Leskovec

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May 2018
Article

The Amount and Source of Millionaires' Wealth (Moderately) Predicts Their Happiness

By: Grant Edward Donnelly, Tianyi Zheng, Emily Haisley and Michael I. Norton

Two samples of more than 4,000 millionaires reveal two primary findings. First, only at high levels of wealth—in excess of $8 million (Study 1) and $10 million (Study 2)—are wealthier millionaires happier than millionaires with lower levels of wealth, though these... View Details

Keywords: Income; Well-being; Happiness; Wealth; Money; Attitudes; Situation or Environment

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09 Feb 2007
Working Paper Summaries

Do Corporate Social Responsibility Ratings Predict Corporate Social Performance?

Keywords: by Aaron K. Chatterji, David I. Levine & Michael W. Toffel

June 2014
Supplement

Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (B)

By: Mihir Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer

This case is meant to accompany Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A) and details the results of Apple's Q2 2013 earnings call. View Details

Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland

2023
Chapter

Analyzing Human Decisions and Machine Predictions in Bail Decision Making

By: Jon Kleinberg, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig and Sendhil Mullainathan

BOOK ABSTRACT: Oriented toward the introductory student, The Inequality Reader is the essential textbook for today's undergraduate courses. The editors have assembled the most important classic and contemporary readings about how poverty and inequality are... View Details

Keywords: Equality and Inequality

15 Aug 2016
Research & Ideas

Black Swans and Big Trends Can Ruin Anyone's Internet Prediction

how we thought about online opportunities one year after the dot-com bubble burst. In retrospect, many of my thoughts about the internet’s future evolution missed the mark. If you think history repeats itself, then these forecasting... View Details

Keywords: by Thomas R. Eisenmann; Technology

2007
Working Paper

Warren Persons, the Harvard Economic Service, and the Problems of Forecasting

By: Walter A. Friedman

August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
Supplement

Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (B)

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler

Supplements the (A) case. In this case, Wehunt and Morse are concerned about the logistic regression model overfitting to the training data, so they explore two methods for reducing the sensitivity of the model to the data by regularizing the coefficients of the... View Details

Keywords: Data Science; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Customers; Household; Forecasting and Prediction

Article

Interpretable Decision Sets: A Joint Framework for Description and Prediction

By: Himabindu Lakkaraju, Stephen H. Bach and Jure Leskovec

June 2014
Supplement

Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 Student Supplement

By: Mihir Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer

This is the student spreadsheet supplement to case 214-085, Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A). View Details

Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland

2013
Article

What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting

By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, Andreas Fuster, David Laibson and Brigitte C. Madrian

Do laboratory subjects correctly perceive the dynamics of a mean-reverting time series? In our experiment, subjects receive historical data and make forecasts at different horizons. The time series process that we use features short-run momentum and long-run partial... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cognition and Thinking

January 2019
Article

Bubbles for Fama

By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You

We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio... View Details

Keywords: Bubble; Market Efficiency; Predictability; Price Bubble; Stocks; Price; Forecasting and Prediction

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November 2023
Article

Knowledge About the Source of Emotion Predicts Emotion-Regulation Attempts, Strategies, and Perceived Emotion-Regulation Success

By: Yael Millgram, Matthew K. Nock, David D. Bailey and Amit Goldenberg

People’s ability to regulate emotions is crucial to healthy emotional functioning. One overlooked aspect in emotion-regulation research is that knowledge about the source of emotions can vary across situations and individuals, which could impact people’s ability to... View Details

Keywords: Emotions; Personal Characteristics; Well-being

June 2014
Case

Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A)

By: Mihir A. Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer

By the end of 2013, Apple had $137 billion dollars in cash and marketable securities. This case explores how companies can generate such large amounts of cash and how and if they should distribute it to shareholders, especially in the face of shareholder pressure. In... View Details

Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland