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  • All HBS Web  (3,383)
    • News  (517)
    • Research  (2,489)
    • Events  (43)
    • Multimedia  (18)
  • Faculty Publications  (1,610)

Show Results For

  • All HBS Web  (3,383)
    • News  (517)
    • Research  (2,489)
    • Events  (43)
    • Multimedia  (18)
  • Faculty Publications  (1,610)
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  • 1972
  • Chapter

Optimal Utilization of Market Forecasts and the Evaluation of Portfolio Performance

By: Michael Jensen
Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation
Citation
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Jensen, Michael. "Optimal Utilization of Market Forecasts and the Evaluation of Portfolio Performance." In Mathematical Methods in Finance, edited by G. P. Szego and Karl Shell. North-Holland Publishing Company, 1972.
  • fall 2007
  • Article

Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts

By: Vishal Gaur, Saravanan Kesavan, Ananth Raman and Marshall L. Fisher
Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Judgments; Forecasting and Prediction
Citation
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Gaur, Vishal, Saravanan Kesavan, Ananth Raman, and Marshall L. Fisher. "Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 9, no. 4 (fall 2007).
  • 1999
  • Working Paper

Positive Illusions and Forecasting Errors in Mutual Fund Investment Decisions

By: Don A. Moore, Terri Kurtzberg, Craig R. Fox and Max Bazerman
Citation
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Moore, Don A., Terri Kurtzberg, Craig R. Fox, and Max Bazerman. "Positive Illusions and Forecasting Errors in Mutual Fund Investment Decisions." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 99-123, May 1999.
  • January 2014
  • Article

Self-reported Ethical Risk Taking Tendencies Predict Actual Dishonesty

By: Liora Zimerman, Shaul Shalvi and Yoella Bereby-Meyer
Are people honest about the extent to which they engage in unethical behaviors? We report an experiment examining the relation between self-reported risky unethical tendencies and actual dishonest behavior. Participants’ self-reported risk taking tendencies were... View Details
Keywords: DOSPERT; Risk Taking; Honesty; Lying; Dishonesty; Unethical Behavior; Moral Sensibility; Cognition and Thinking
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Zimerman, Liora, Shaul Shalvi, and Yoella Bereby-Meyer. "Self-reported Ethical Risk Taking Tendencies Predict Actual Dishonesty." Judgment and Decision Making 9, no. 1 (January 2014): 58–64.
  • August 2020 (Revised September 2020)
  • Technical Note

Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models

By: Michael W. Toffel, Natalie Epstein, Kris Ferreira and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
The note introduces a variety of methods to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models. The note begins by briefly introducing machine learning, overfitting, training versus test datasets, and cross validation. The following accuracy metrics and tools... View Details
Keywords: Machine Learning; Statistics; Econometric Analyses; Experimental Methods; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Mathematical Methods
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Toffel, Michael W., Natalie Epstein, Kris Ferreira, and Yael Grushka-Cockayne. "Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models." Harvard Business School Technical Note 621-045, August 2020. (Revised September 2020.)
  • April 2010
  • Teaching Note

Four Products (2008): Predicting Diffusion (TN)

By: John T. Gourville
Teaching Note for 508103. View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing; Innovation and Invention; Demand and Consumers
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Gourville, John T. "Four Products (2008): Predicting Diffusion (TN)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 510-113, April 2010.
  • Article

Mining Big Data to Extract Patterns and Predict Real-Life Outcomes

By: Michal Kosinki, Yilun Wang, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Jure Leskovec
Citation
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Kosinki, Michal, Yilun Wang, Himabindu Lakkaraju, and Jure Leskovec. "Mining Big Data to Extract Patterns and Predict Real-Life Outcomes." Psychological Methods 21, no. 4 (December 2016): 493–506.
  • May 2018
  • Article

The Amount and Source of Millionaires' Wealth (Moderately) Predicts Their Happiness

By: Grant Edward Donnelly, Tianyi Zheng, Emily Haisley and Michael I. Norton
Two samples of more than 4,000 millionaires reveal two primary findings. First, only at high levels of wealth—in excess of $8 million (Study 1) and $10 million (Study 2)—are wealthier millionaires happier than millionaires with lower levels of wealth, though these... View Details
Keywords: Income; Well-being; Happiness; Wealth; Money; Attitudes; Situation or Environment
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Donnelly, Grant Edward, Tianyi Zheng, Emily Haisley, and Michael I. Norton. "The Amount and Source of Millionaires' Wealth (Moderately) Predicts Their Happiness." Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 44, no. 5 (May 2018): 684–699.
  • 09 Feb 2007
  • Working Paper Summaries

Do Corporate Social Responsibility Ratings Predict Corporate Social Performance?

Keywords: by Aaron K. Chatterji, David I. Levine & Michael W. Toffel
  • June 2014
  • Supplement

Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (B)

By: Mihir Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer
This case is meant to accompany Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A) and details the results of Apple's Q2 2013 earnings call. View Details
Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland
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Desai, Mihir, and Elizabeth A. Meyer. "Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 214-094, June 2014.
  • 2023
  • Chapter

Analyzing Human Decisions and Machine Predictions in Bail Decision Making

By: Jon Kleinberg, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig and Sendhil Mullainathan
BOOK ABSTRACT: Oriented toward the introductory student, The Inequality Reader is the essential textbook for today's undergraduate courses. The editors have assembled the most important classic and contemporary readings about how poverty and inequality are... View Details
Keywords: Equality and Inequality
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Kleinberg, Jon, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig, and Sendhil Mullainathan. "Analyzing Human Decisions and Machine Predictions in Bail Decision Making." In The Inequality Reader: Contemporary and Foundational Readings in Race, Class, and Gender. 3rd edition, edited by David B. Grusky and Szonja Szelényi. Routledge, forthcoming.
  • 15 Aug 2016
  • Research & Ideas

Black Swans and Big Trends Can Ruin Anyone's Internet Prediction

how we thought about online opportunities one year after the dot-com bubble burst. In retrospect, many of my thoughts about the internet’s future evolution missed the mark. If you think history repeats itself, then these forecasting... View Details
Keywords: by Thomas R. Eisenmann; Technology
  • 2007
  • Working Paper

Warren Persons, the Harvard Economic Service, and the Problems of Forecasting

By: Walter A. Friedman
Citation
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Friedman, Walter A. "Warren Persons, the Harvard Economic Service, and the Problems of Forecasting." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 07-044, January 2007.
  • August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
  • Supplement

Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (B)

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
Supplements the (A) case. In this case, Wehunt and Morse are concerned about the logistic regression model overfitting to the training data, so they explore two methods for reducing the sensitivity of the model to the data by regularizing the coefficients of the... View Details
Keywords: Data Science; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Customers; Household; Forecasting and Prediction
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Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 119-026, August 2018. (Revised September 2018.)
  • Article

Interpretable Decision Sets: A Joint Framework for Description and Prediction

By: Himabindu Lakkaraju, Stephen H. Bach and Jure Leskovec
Citation
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Lakkaraju, Himabindu, Stephen H. Bach, and Jure Leskovec. "Interpretable Decision Sets: A Joint Framework for Description and Prediction." Proceedings of the ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining 22nd (2016).
  • June 2014
  • Supplement

Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 Student Supplement

By: Mihir Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer
This is the student spreadsheet supplement to case 214-085, Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A). View Details
Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland
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Desai, Mihir, and Elizabeth A. Meyer. "Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 Student Supplement." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 214-714, June 2014.
  • 2013
  • Article

What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting

By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, Andreas Fuster, David Laibson and Brigitte C. Madrian
Do laboratory subjects correctly perceive the dynamics of a mean-reverting time series? In our experiment, subjects receive historical data and make forecasts at different horizons. The time series process that we use features short-run momentum and long-run partial... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cognition and Thinking
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Beshears, John, James J. Choi, Andreas Fuster, David Laibson, and Brigitte C. Madrian. "What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 103, no. 3 (May 2013): 570–574.
  • January 2019
  • Article

Bubbles for Fama

By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You
We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio... View Details
Keywords: Bubble; Market Efficiency; Predictability; Price Bubble; Stocks; Price; Forecasting and Prediction
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Greenwood, Robin, Andrei Shleifer, and Yang You. "Bubbles for Fama." Journal of Financial Economics 131, no. 1 (January 2019): 20–43. (Internet Appendix Here.)
  • November 2023
  • Article

Knowledge About the Source of Emotion Predicts Emotion-Regulation Attempts, Strategies, and Perceived Emotion-Regulation Success

By: Yael Millgram, Matthew K. Nock, David D. Bailey and Amit Goldenberg
People’s ability to regulate emotions is crucial to healthy emotional functioning. One overlooked aspect in emotion-regulation research is that knowledge about the source of emotions can vary across situations and individuals, which could impact people’s ability to... View Details
Keywords: Emotions; Personal Characteristics; Well-being
Citation
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Millgram, Yael, Matthew K. Nock, David D. Bailey, and Amit Goldenberg. "Knowledge About the Source of Emotion Predicts Emotion-Regulation Attempts, Strategies, and Perceived Emotion-Regulation Success." Psychological Science 34, no. 11 (November 2023): 1244–1255.
  • June 2014
  • Case

Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A)

By: Mihir A. Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer
By the end of 2013, Apple had $137 billion dollars in cash and marketable securities. This case explores how companies can generate such large amounts of cash and how and if they should distribute it to shareholders, especially in the face of shareholder pressure. In... View Details
Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland
Citation
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Desai, Mihir A., and Elizabeth A. Meyer. "Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A)." Harvard Business School Case 214-085, June 2014.
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