Publications

January 2016 (Revised March 2016)
Case

Whither the Weather (Company): Forecasting 2016

By: Rosabeth Moss Kanter and Jonathan Cohen

CEO David Kenny led the transformation of the Weather Company from a television business to a Big Data technology company from 2012 until 2016, when IBM acquired its digital assets. This case discusses major decisions taken by Kenny starting in 2014 as he sought to... View Details

Keywords: Weather Company; IBM; Digital; Technology; David Kenny; Television; Weather Channel; Legacy Business; Mainstream; Newstream; Reorganization; Acquisitions; Transformation; Information Technology; Television Entertainment; Acquisition; Consolidation; Change; Leadership

Educators

August 2021
Case

Precision Paint Co.

By: Iavor I. Bojinov, Chiara Farronato, Janice H. Hammond, Michael Parzen and Paul Hamilton

Describes a marketing director about to launch a new process for demand forecasting. Provides data that allow students to do a multivariable regression analysis. A rewritten version of an earlier case. View Details

Keywords: Regression; Prediction; Forecasting; Data Science; Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction

Educators

April 1966
Article

A Two-Stage Forecasting Model: Exponential Smoothing and Multiple Regression

By: D. B. Crane and James R. Crotty

Keywords: Mathematical Methods

2009
Case

What People Want (and How to Predict It)

By: Thomas H. Davenport and Jeanne G. Harris

Historically, neither the creators nor the distributors of cultural products such as books or movies have used analytics -- data, statistics, predictive modeling -- to determine the likely success of their offerings. Instead, companies relied on the brilliance of... View Details

Keywords: Product Development; Creativity; Customer Satisfaction; Forecasting and Prediction; Markets; Business Model; Motion Pictures and Video Industry; Motion Pictures and Video Industry

December 2021
Article

Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight

By: Aticus Peterson and Andy Wu

We study how learning by experience across projects affects an entrepreneur's strategic foresight. In a quantitative study of 314 entrepreneurs across 722 crowdfunded projects supplemented with a program of qualitative interviews, we counterintuitively find that... View Details

Keywords: Crowdfunding; Experience; Prediction; Timeline; Complexity; Entrepreneurship; Learning; Experience and Expertise; Forecasting and Prediction

Editorial

The Power of Precise Predictions

By: Philip E. Tetlock and J. Peter Scoblic

Keywords: Politics; Foreign Policy; Forecasting and Prediction; Globalization; Policy; Government and Politics

Article

Physical and Situational Inequality on Airplanes Predict Air Rage

By: K. A. DeCelles and Michael I. Norton

We posit that the modern airplane is a social microcosm of class-based society, and that the increasing incidence of “air rage” can be understood through the lens of inequality. Research on inequality typically examines the effects of relatively fixed, macrostructural... View Details

Keywords: Physical Inequality; Equality and Inequality; Behavior; Air Transportation; Situation or Environment

20 Jun 2016
News

When Predicting Other People's Preferences, You're Probably Wrong

2005
Article

Airline Security, the Failure of 9/11, and Predictable Surprises

By: M. Bazerman and M. Watkins

Keywords: National Security; Failure

06 Apr 2022
News

How to Use Correlation to Make Predictions

October 2008
Article

The Effect of Macro Information Environment Change on the Quality of Management Earnings Forecasts

The 1990s were characterized by substantial increases in the performance of and investor reliance on financial analysts. Because managers possess superior private information and issue forecasts to align investors' expectations with their own, we predict that... View Details

Keywords: Information; Performance Expectations; Earnings Management; Financial Reporting; Forecasting and Prediction

April 2010
Teaching Note

Four Products (2008): Predicting Diffusion (TN)

By: John T. Gourville

Teaching Note for 508103. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing; Innovation and Invention; Demand and Consumers

January 2014
Article

Self-reported Ethical Risk Taking Tendencies Predict Actual Dishonesty

By: Liora Zimerman, Shaul Shalvi and Yoella Bereby-Meyer

Are people honest about the extent to which they engage in unethical behaviors? We report an experiment examining the relation between self-reported risky unethical tendencies and actual dishonest behavior. Participants’ self-reported risk taking tendencies were... View Details

Keywords: DOSPERT; Risk Taking; Honesty; Lying; Dishonesty; Unethical Behavior; Moral Sensibility; Cognition and Thinking