Publications

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22 Apr 2020
Video

Daniel Schrag on the Science of Forecasting Climate Change: What We Know and What We Don’t

April 2010
Case

Jones Electrical Distribution

By: Thomas R. Piper and Jeffrey DeVolder

Jones Electrical Distribution is faced with a need for increased bank financing due to its rapid sales growth. Students must determine the reasons for the rising bank borrowing, estimate the amount of borrowing needed and assess the attractiveness of the loan to the... View Details

Keywords: Financial Analysis; Forecasting; Financing; Bank Loans; Growth Management; Cash Flow; Financing and Loans; Forecasting and Prediction; Distribution Industry

August 2010
Supplement

Flash Memory, Inc., Faculty Spreadsheet Supplement (Brief Case)

By: William E. Fruhan Jr. and Craig Stephenson

Keywords: Forecasting; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Budgeting

Article

End the Mythmaking and Return to True Analysis

By: Joseph B. Fuller

Keywords: Analyst Forecasts; Analysis

December 2023
Article

Brokerage Relationships and Analyst Forecasts: Evidence from the Protocol for Broker Recruiting

By: Braiden Coleman, Michael Drake, Joseph Pacelli and Brady Twedt

In this study, we offer novel evidence on how the nature of brokerage-client relationships can influence the quality of equity research. We exploit a unique setting provided by the Protocol for Broker Recruiting to examine whether relaxed broker non-compete agreement... View Details

Keywords: Brokers; Analysts; Forecasts; Bias; Protocol; Investment; Research; Forecasting and Prediction

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September 2010
Case

New Heritage Doll Company

By: Timothy A. Luehrman and Heide Abelli

A manufacturer and retailer of specialty doll products must decide which of two projects to fund. The decision requires the student to compute cash flows for the 2 projects, discount values to the present and compare and contrast different project performance measures. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting; Resource Management; Resource Allocation; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Budgeting; Manufacturing Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Retail Industry

October 2014 (Revised August 2018)
Case

Caesars Entertainment

By: Janice H. Hammond and Aldo Sesia

This case describes the introduction of a regression analysis model for forecasting guest arrivals to Caesars Palace hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada. The company will use the forecast to staff the front desk in the hotel. The staff is unionized and the company has little... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting; Staffing; Gaming; Gaming Industry; Hotel Industry; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Human Resources; Selection and Staffing; Entertainment; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Operations; Service Delivery; Service Operations; Accommodations Industry; Travel Industry; Tourism Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Las Vegas

04 Mar 2020

Daniel Schrag on the Science of Forecasting Climate Change: What We Know and What We Don’t

September 2010
Teaching Note

New Heritage Doll Company (Brief Case)

By: Timothy A. Luehrman and Heide Abelli

Teaching Note for 4212. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting; Resource Management; Resource Allocation; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Budgeting

June 2009 (Revised March 2010)
Supplement

Hansson Private Label, Inc.: Evaluating an Investment in Expansion, Student Spreadsheet (Brief Case)

By: Erik Stafford and Joel L. Heilprin

Keywords: Present Value; Forecasting; Expansion; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Budgeting

1997
Chapter

On the Dynamics of Forecasting in Technologically Complex Environments: The Unexpectedly Long Old Age of Optical Lithography

By: Rebecca M. Henderson

Keywords: History; Information Technology; Situation or Environment; Complexity; Forecasting and Prediction; Technology Industry

June 18, 2014
Blog Post

How to Kill Quarterly Earnings Guidance

By: Gabriel Karageorgiou, Daniela Saltzman and George Serafeim

Keywords: Forecast; Short-termism; Sustainability; Earnings Management; Competitive Advantage

2018
Working Paper

Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts: When Is It Appropriate to Extremize or Anti-Extremize?

By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Victor Richmond R. Jose and Robert L. Winkler

Many organizations face critical decisions that rely on forecasts of binary events. In these situations, organizations often gather forecasts from multiple experts or models and average those forecasts to produce a single aggregate forecast. Because the average... View Details

Keywords: Forecast Aggregation; Linear Opinion Pool; Generalized Additive Model; Generalized Linear Model; Stacking.; Forecasting and Prediction

SSRN

2018
Working Paper

Algorithm Appreciation: People Prefer Algorithmic to Human Judgment

By: Jennifer M. Logg, Julia A. Minson and Don A. Moore

Even though computational algorithms often outperform human judgment, received wisdom suggests that people may be skeptical of relying on them (Dawes, 1979). Counter to this notion, results from six experiments show that lay people adhere more to advice when they think... View Details

Keywords: Algorithms; Accuracy; Advice Taking; Forecasting; Theory Of Machine; Mathematical Methods; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Trust

SSRN

Article

Can Analysts Assess Fundamental Risk and Valuation Uncertainty? An Empirical Analysis of Scenario-Based Value Estimates

By: Peter R. Joos, Joseph D. Piotroski and Suraj Srinivasan

We use a dataset of sell-side analysts' scenario-based valuation estimates to examine whether analysts reliably assess the risk surrounding a firm's fundamental value. We find that the spread in analysts' state-side contingent valuations captures the riskiness of... View Details

Keywords: Analyst Forecasts; Scenarios; Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction

SSRN

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February 2019
Case

Miroglio Fashion (A)

By: Sunil Gupta and David Lane

Francesco Cavarero, chief information officer of Miroglio Fashion, Italy’s third-largest retailer of women’s apparel, was trying to bring analytical rigor to the company’s forecasting and inventory management decisions. But fashion is inherently hard to predict. Can... View Details

Keywords: Inventory Management; Demand Forecasting; Artificial Intelligence; Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Operations; Management; Decision Making; AI and Machine Learning; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Fashion Industry

September 2010
Supplement

New Heritage Doll Company, Faculty Spreadsheet Supplement (Brief Case)

By: Timothy A. Luehrman and Heide Abelli

Keywords: Forecasting; Resource Management; Resource Allocation; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Budgeting