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- December 2021
- Article
Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns
By: Marcelo Bianconi, Federico Esposito and Marco Sammon
A recent literature has documented large real effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on trade, employment, and investment, but there is little evidence that investors are compensated for bearing such risk. To quantify the risk premium associated with TPU, we exploit... View Details
Keywords: Trade Policy; Uncertainty; Stock Returns; Risk Premium; Tariff Rates; Portfolio Analysis; Trade; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Stocks; Investment Return
Bianconi, Marcelo, Federico Esposito, and Marco Sammon. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns." Art. 102492. Journal of International Money and Finance 119 (December 2021).
- 2022
- Working Paper
The Issuance and Design of Sustainability-linked Loans
By: Maria Loumioti and George Serafeim
Sustainability-linked loans (i.e., syndicated loans for which pricing is linked to a sustainability performance indicator) have rapidly evolved into a significant private debt product. We find that sustainability-linked lending has been available mostly to borrowers... View Details
Keywords: Sustainability; Sustainability Management; Credit Products; Loan Contracts; Loans; Corporate Finance; Credit Risk; Environment; ESG; ESG Ratings; Climate Change; Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Risk and Uncertainty; Credit
Loumioti, Maria, and George Serafeim. "The Issuance and Design of Sustainability-linked Loans." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-027, November 2022.
- 04 May 2009
- Working Paper Summaries
An Ounce of Prevention: The Power of Public Risk Management in Stabilizing the Financial System
- 2025
- Working Paper
Climate Risk and the U.S. Insurance Gap: Measurement, Drivers and Implications
By: Parinitha Sastry, Tess Scharlemann, Ishita Sen and Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva
In a world with rising risk, how much are U.S. households willing to pay for homeowners insurance, and what does their demand imply for the future of insurance markets? We provide the first estimates of household willingness to pay for homeowners insurance and the... View Details
Keywords: Climate Change; Risk and Uncertainty; Insurance; Personal Finance; Consumer Behavior; Mortgages
Sastry, Parinitha, Tess Scharlemann, Ishita Sen, and Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva. "The Limits of Insurance Demand and the Growing Protection Gap." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-054, February 2025.
- Article
Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis
By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
This paper empirically analyzes the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) in inflation-indexed (or real) bonds and in nominal bonds in the U.S. and in the U.K. We strongly reject the EH in inflation-indexed bonds and also confirm and update the existing evidence rejecting the... View Details
Keywords: TIPS; Breakeven Inflation; Return Predictability; Bond Risk Premia; Risk Management; Bonds; Financial Liquidity; Inflation and Deflation; United Kingdom; United States
Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis." Annual Review of Financial Economics 3 (2011): 139–158.
- February 2013
- Teaching Note
Australia: Commodities and Competitiveness (TN)
By: Laura Alfaro, Richard H.K. Vietor and Hilary White
For the past few decades, Australia has dealt with the benefits and costs of repeated mining booms—inflation, a housing bubble, a current account deficit and growing dependence on China. Between 1996 and 2007, however, Australia had most of these issues under control... View Details
- June 2013 (Revised June 2013)
- Teaching Note
Brazil's Enigma: Sustaining Long-Term Growth & Currency Wars
By: Laura Alfaro and Hilary White
Over the past decade, Brazil's future as a leading world economic power appeared certain. An expanding middle class and commodity boom had fueled economic growth, with GDP growth hitting a peak of 7.5% in 2010. However, the high cost of conducting business in Brazil,... View Details
Keywords: Exchange Rate; Inflation; Inflation Targeting; Industrialization; Infrastructure; Currency; Capital Controls; Stimulus; Commodity Prices; Manufacturing Costs; Globalization; Productivity Growth; Economics; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Inflation and Deflation; Macroeconomics; Public Sector; Brazil; South America; Latin America
- March 2013
- Case
Currency Wars
By: Laura Alfaro and Hilary White
In February 2013, the G-20 finance ministers met in Moscow, Russia to discuss the rising anxieties over a potential international currency war. It was speculated that certain countries were purposely devaluing their currencies in order to improve their competitiveness... View Details
Keywords: Currency; Competitiveness; Trade Policy; Devaluation; Exchange Rate; Monetary Policy; Quantitative Easing; Inflation Targeting; Capital Flows; Central Banking; Currency Exchange Rate; Competitive Strategy; Emerging Markets; Policy; Trade; Conflict and Resolution; Banking Industry; Public Administration Industry; Moscow
Alfaro, Laura, and Hilary White. "Currency Wars." Harvard Business School Case 713-074, March 2013.
- 2022
- Article
Climate Change Vulnerability and Currency Returns
By: Alex Cheema-Fox, George Serafeim and Hui (Stacie) Wang
Using measures of physical risk from climate change, we develop a methodology to allocate currency pairs according to a country’s vulnerability and construct portfolios with decreasing vulnerability to physical risk. We show that non-G10 currencies are more vulnerable... View Details
Keywords: Climate Finance; Vulnerabilities; Currencies; Foreign Exchange; Climate Change; Currency; Natural Disasters
Cheema-Fox, Alex, George Serafeim, and Hui (Stacie) Wang. "Climate Change Vulnerability and Currency Returns." Financial Analysts Journal 78, no. 4 (2022): 37–58.
- March 2025
- Article
Novice Risk Work: How Juniors Coaching Seniors on Emerging Technologies Such as Generative AI Can Lead to Learning Failures
By: Katherine C. Kellogg, Hila Lifshitz-Assaf, Steven Randazzo, Ethan Mollick, Fabrizio Dell'Acqua, Edward McFowland III, François Candelon and Karim R. Lakhani
The literature on communities of practice demonstrates that a proven way for senior professionals to upskill
themselves in the use of new technologies that undermine existing expertise is to learn from junior
professionals. It notes that juniors may be better able... View Details
Keywords: Rank and Position; Competency and Skills; Technology Adoption; Experience and Expertise; AI and Machine Learning
Kellogg, Katherine C., Hila Lifshitz-Assaf, Steven Randazzo, Ethan Mollick, Fabrizio Dell'Acqua, Edward McFowland III, François Candelon, and Karim R. Lakhani. "Novice Risk Work: How Juniors Coaching Seniors on Emerging Technologies Such as Generative AI Can Lead to Learning Failures." Art. 100559. Information and Organization 35, no. 1 (March 2025).
- Article
The Cost of Capital for Alternative Investments
By: Jakub W. Jurek and Erik Stafford
Traditional risk factor models indicate that hedge funds capture pre-fee alphas of 6% to 10% per annum over the period from 1996 to 2012. At the same time, the hedge fund return series is not reliably distinguishable from the returns of mechanical S&P 500 put-writing... View Details
Keywords: Hedge Funds; Required Returns; Downside Risk; Index Options; Investment Funds; Cost of Capital; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Services Industry
Jurek, Jakub W., and Erik Stafford. "The Cost of Capital for Alternative Investments." Journal of Finance 70, no. 5 (October 2015): 2185–2226.
- fall 2008
- Article
The Intermediation of Financial Risks: Evolution in the Catastrophe Reinsurance Market
By: Kenneth A. Froot
In this paper, I provide evidence concerning the imperfections in the reinsurance market. I try to get at some of the root causes of these imperfections, e.g., the behavior of ratings firms and the agency problems associated with the corporate form of ownership. I also... View Details
Keywords: Catastrophe Risk; Corporate Finance; Banking And Insurance; Hedging; Banking; Financial Markets; Insurance; Policy; Risk Management; Natural Disasters; Cost of Capital; Asset Pricing; Insurance Industry
Froot, Kenneth A. "The Intermediation of Financial Risks: Evolution in the Catastrophe Reinsurance Market." Risk Management and Insurance Review 11, no. 2 (fall 2008): 281–294.
- 2021
- Article
Decarbonizing Everything
By: Alex Cheema-Fox, Bridget LaPerla, George Serafeim, David Turkington and Hui (Stacie) Wang
We analyze how the use of different climate risk measures leads to different portfolio carbon outcomes and risk-adjusted returns. Our findings are synthesized in a rules-based investment framework, which selects a different type of climate metric across industries and... View Details
Keywords: Climate Risk; ESG; ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) Performance; ESG Disclosure; ESG Disclosure Metrics; ESG Ratings; Investing; Investing For Impact; Investment Strategy; Environment; Decarbonization; Climate Change; Environmental Sustainability; Environmental Management; Environmental Accounting; Investment; Strategy; Investment Portfolio; Investment Return
Cheema-Fox, Alex, Bridget LaPerla, George Serafeim, David Turkington, and Hui (Stacie) Wang. "Decarbonizing Everything." Financial Analysts Journal 77, no. 3 (2021): 93–108.
- August 2006
- Article
Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default
By: Samuel G. Hanson and Til Schuermann
In this paper we conduct a systematic comparison of confidence intervals around estimated probabilities of default (PD) using several analytical approaches as well as parametric and nonparametric bootstrap methods. We do so for two different PD estimation... View Details
Hanson, Samuel G., and Til Schuermann. "Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default." Journal of Banking & Finance 30, no. 8 (August 2006).
- September 1996 (Revised July 1997)
- Case
Grupo Sidek (A)
By: Kenneth A. Froot and Alberto Moel
A large Mexican conglomerate, active in tourism, real estate, and steel, is faced with difficult macroeconomic conditions beginning with the Peso crisis of December 1994. The conglomerate had extensive dollar-indexed liabilities and was caught in a crunch when the... View Details
Keywords: Foreign Exchange; Real Estate; Debt Policy; Tourism; Steel; Business Conglomerates; Macroeconomics; Currency Exchange Rate; Crisis Management; Valuation; Mexico
Froot, Kenneth A., and Alberto Moel. "Grupo Sidek (A)." Harvard Business School Case 297-022, September 1996. (Revised July 1997.)
- Article
Hurry or Wait: The Pros and Cons of Going Fast or Slow on Climate Change
By: Eleanor Denny and Jurgen Weiss
Climate change risk will likely force the de-carbonization of our electricity sector and thus involve massive investments in long-lived assets using many new and emerging technologies. Since technological progress (independent or dependent on deployment) will likely... View Details
Keywords: Electricity Sector; Environmental Risks; Fat Tails; Greenhouse Gas Emissions; Climate Change; Information Technology; Investment; Technological Innovation; Cost vs Benefits
Denny, Eleanor, and Jurgen Weiss. "Hurry or Wait: The Pros and Cons of Going Fast or Slow on Climate Change." Economists' Voice 12, no. 1 (August 2015): 19–24.
- January 1990 (Revised March 1994)
- Case
Royal Ahold NV
By: Richard F. Meyer
Contains a general description of a large international retailer. Focus is on the major financial risks facing the company: exchange rate risk and commodity price risk. This case is an introduction to financial risk management. It poses some of the major problem areas. View Details
Keywords: Risk Management; Currency Exchange Rate; Futures and Commodity Futures; Trade; Distribution; Financial Services Industry
Meyer, Richard F. "Royal Ahold NV." Harvard Business School Case 190-113, January 1990. (Revised March 1994.)
- Research Summary
Time Varying Expected Returns, Stochastic Dividend Yields, and Default Probabilities: Linking the Credit Risk and Equity Literature (with George Chacko and Jens Hilscher)
In standard structural bond pricing models, the firm defaults once the market value of assets has fallen below a threshold. Expected returns, or at least dividend yields, are assumed to be constant, which implies that any asset value movement is permanent and has the... View Details
- May 2011
- Article
Nonsimultaneous Chains and Dominos in Kidney Paired Donation—Revisited
By: Itai Ashlagi, Duncan S. Gilchrist, Alvin E. Roth and Michael A. Rees
Since 2008 kidney exchange in America has grown in part from the incorporation of non-directed donors in transplant chains rather than simple exchanges. It is controversial whether these chains should be performed simultaneously ("domino paired donation," DPD) or... View Details
Keywords: ABO Incompatibility; Allosensitization; Paired Kidney Exchange; Regional Sharing; Simulation Models; Transplantation Policy; Health Care and Treatment; Supply Chain; Risk and Uncertainty; Logistics; United States
Ashlagi, Itai, Duncan S. Gilchrist, Alvin E. Roth, and Michael A. Rees. "Nonsimultaneous Chains and Dominos in Kidney Paired Donation—Revisited." American Journal of Transplantation 11, no. 5 (May 2011): 984–994.
- 2020
- Working Paper
Corporate Leadership and Creditor Recovery Rates: Evidence from Executive Gender
By: Clarissa Hauptmann, Syrena Shirley and Anywhere Sikochi
We examine the relationship between the gender of executives and corporate creditor recovery rates. Using 2,288 defaulted debt instruments, we find that female executives are associated with higher creditor recovery rates. Our findings are robust to tests that correct... View Details
Keywords: Executive Gender; Default; Recovery Rates; Debt; Corporate Bonds; Conservatism; Leadership; Gender; Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Risk Management
Hauptmann, Clarissa, Syrena Shirley, and Anywhere Sikochi. "Corporate Leadership and Creditor Recovery Rates: Evidence from Executive Gender." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-087, February 2020.