Publications

April 2021 (Revised August 2021)
Case

Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI (A)

By: Navid Mojir and Gamze Yucaoglu

Borusan Cat is an international distributor of Caterpillar heavy machines. Esra Durgun (Director of Strategy, Digitization, and Innovation) and Ozgur Gunaydin (CEO) seem to have bet their careers on developing Muneccim, a new predictive technology that is designed to... View Details

Keywords: Monetization Strategy; Artificial Intelligence; AI; Forecasting and Prediction; Applications and Software; Technological Innovation; Marketing; Segmentation; AI and Machine Learning; Construction Industry; Turkey

02 Feb 2009
Research & Ideas

The Success of Persistent Entrepreneurs

When it comes to entrepreneurship, nothing says success like a track record of previous wins. Entrepreneurs with a history of success are much more likely to succeed in new ventures than first-timers or those who failed previously, new research from Harvard Business... View Details

Keywords: by Sarah Jane Gilbert

11 Dec 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, December 11, 2018

Sports Betting By: Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon, and Neil Campbell Abstract—We examine two episodes of strategic interaction in the U.K. betting industry: (i) Betfair (an entrant multi-sided platform or MSP)... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

11 Sep 2006
Research & Ideas

Negotiating When the Rules Suddenly Change

success. Translated to the negotiation arena, creating a bump plan means ultimately making an informed bet on how you expect things to unfold, while also contemplating what you'll do if events go the other way. A hockey general manager... View Details

Keywords: by Michael Wheeler; Sports

2022
Working Paper

Confidence, Self-Selection and Bias in the Aggregate

By: Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber and Ryan Oprea

The influence of behavioral biases on aggregate outcomes like prices and allocations depends in part on self-selection: whether rational people opt more strongly into aggregate interactions than biased individuals. We conduct a series of betting market, auction and... View Details

Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Cognition and Thinking; Markets; Price

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Research Summary

Implications of Limits of Arbitrage (with James Choi)

In this project we investigate the relationship between limits to arbitrage facing mutual fund managers and asset pricing anomalies. We measure changes in the limits to arbitrage by computing the average of slopes on current and past returns in quarterly... View Details

April 2023
Article

Are Intermediary Constraints Priced?

By: Wenxin Du, Benjamin Hebert and Amy Wang Huber

Violations of no-arbitrage conditions measure the shadow cost of intermediary constraints. Intermediary asset pricing and intertemporal hedging together imply that the risk of these constraints tightening is priced. We describe a “forward CIP trading strategy” that... View Details

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; International Finance

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Article

Can Big-Box Retailers Provide Local Health Care?

By: Robert S. Huckman

National retailers, most notably Walmart and Best Buy, are making big bets on their ability to fill this need for local health care. At first glance, these moves are a bit surprising given that these companies have not traditionally been focused on health care... View Details

Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Service Delivery; Local Range; Retail Industry; Health Industry

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31 Oct 2014
News

Silicon valley: start-up founders under pressure

October 2016 (Revised February 2020)
Case

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

By: Anita Elberse

In June 2016, Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson is planning for the upcoming launch of an endeavor that is a first for a Hollywood actor with superstar status—a digital channel. The channel (named “Seven Bucks Digital Studios”) will be a new part of film and television... View Details

June 2025
Supplement

Transforming a Titan (C)

By: George Serafeim and Lena Duchene

Three years in his tenure as CEO, Cobuz must decide whether to launch a more than €500 million carbon-capture-and-storage facility. The project—Europe’s largest planned CCS installation—would cut almost 20 % of group emissions and unlock a €234 million EU Innovation... View Details

Keywords: CEO; Family

January 2002 (Revised October 2007)
Case

Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co., 2001

By: Joshua Musher and Andre F. Perold

Asset manager GMO underperforms the market during the 1996-2000 stock market bubble because of the focus on absolute risk. After suffering significant client withdrawals, performance again shines when the bubble collapses. Did they win the battle only to lose the war?... View Details

Keywords: Customers; Asset Management; Stocks; Investment; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods; Risk and Uncertainty

April 1990 (Revised November 1991)
Case

Frost, Inc. (A)

In many ways Frost is an archetypal, small, dying manufacturing firm. With profits gone in a no-growth business and unable to diversify, Charles Frost bets the company on computer numerically controlled (CNC) equipment to replace the existing 1940s era screw machines.... View Details

Keywords: Small Business; Diversification; Business Exit or Shutdown; Manufacturing Industry

11 Oct 2016
News

Capitalism Behaving Badly

July 2025
Case

Elon Musk, 2025: The Master of Big Bets?

By: David B. Yoffie

This case explores Elon Musk’s influence across business and politics in 2025, as he navigates the challenges of simultaneously leading multiple companies, such as Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, while briefly serving in the U.S. government. It examines Musk’s high-stakes bets... View Details

Keywords: Strategy; Strategy And Leadership; Technological Innovation; Politics; Auto Industry

May 2011
Article

The Power of Small Wins

By: Teresa M. Amabile and Steven J. Kramer

What is the best way to motivate employees to do creative work? Help them take a step forward every day. In an analysis of knowledge workers' diaries, the authors found that nothing contributed more to a positive inner work life (the mix of emotions, motivations, and... View Details

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February 1992 (Revised September 1995)
Case

Goldman, Sachs & Co.: Nikkei Put Warrants--1989

By: Peter Tufano

Japanese financial institutions' willingness to sell put options on the Nikkei Stock Average provides investment banks with the raw material from which to create a security that would allow U.S. investors to bet on falls in the Japanese Stock Market. The investment... View Details

Keywords: Debt Securities; Investment Banking; Product Design; Globalized Markets and Industries; Japan; United States

2008
Working Paper

The Small World of Investing: Board Connections and Mutual Fund Returns

By: Lauren Cohen, Andrea Frazzini and Christopher J. Malloy

This paper uses social networks to identify information transfer in security markets. We focus on connections between mutual fund managers and corporate board members via shared education networks. We find that portfolio managers place larger bets on firms they are... View Details

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Investment Portfolio; Governing and Advisory Boards; Knowledge Sharing; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Social and Collaborative Networks; Financial Services Industry

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January 2023
Teaching Note

Duolingo: Teaching Languages to the Masses

By: Youngme Moon

Teaching Note for HBS Case 323-016. At the time the case is written, Duolingo is the most popular language learning service in the world. The company has more than 40 million monthly active users, and the company’s total annual revenue has reached $250 million a year.... View Details

Keywords: Marketing; Marketing Strategy; Customer Relationship Management; Acquisition; Retention; Innovation and Invention