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- Faculty Publications (193)
- 2007
- Working Paper
A Taste For Obscurity: An Individual-Level Examination of 'Long Tail' Consumption
By: Anita Elberse
Because online retailers are often able to provide products in a more cost-efficient manner than bricks-and-mortar stores, online channels are characterized by a vast assortment of products. Proponents of the "long tail" principle recently argued that the demand for... View Details
- 2007
- Working Paper
Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
Real investors and markets are too complicated to be neatly summarized by a few selected biases and trading frictions. The "top down" approach to behavioral finance focuses on the measurement of reduced form, aggregate sentiment and traces its effects to stock returns.... View Details
- 2006
- Chapter
Taxation and the Evolution of Aggregate Corporate Ownership Concentration
By: Mihir A. Desai, Dhammika Dharmapala and Winnie Fung
Desai, Mihir A., Dhammika Dharmapala, and Winnie Fung. "Taxation and the Evolution of Aggregate Corporate Ownership Concentration." In Taxing Corporate Income in the 21st Century, edited by Alan Auerbach, James R. Hines Jr., and Joel Slemrod. Cambridge University Press, 2006.
- August 2006
- Article
Predicting Returns with Managerial Decision Variables: Is There a Small-Sample Bias?
By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Jeffrey Wurgler
Many studies find that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these findings may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's (2003, Journal of Finance... View Details
Keywords: Prejudice and Bias; Fairness; Managerial Roles; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Equity; Bonds; Financial Markets; Investment; Capital Markets; Borrowing and Debt; Investment Return
Baker, Malcolm, Ryan Taliaferro, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Predicting Returns with Managerial Decision Variables: Is There a Small-Sample Bias?" Journal of Finance 61, no. 4 (August 2006): 1711–1730. (Section V of "Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions, NBER Working Paper Series, No. 10823, contains additional analyses.)
- 2005
- Working Paper
Taxation and the Evolution of Aggregate Corporate Ownership Concentration
By: Mihir A. Desai, Dhammika Dharmapala and Winnie Fung
Desai, Mihir A., Dhammika Dharmapala, and Winnie Fung. "Taxation and the Evolution of Aggregate Corporate Ownership Concentration." NBER Working Paper Series, No. w11469, July 2005.
- 2005
- Working Paper
Aggregate Corporate Liquidity and Stock Returns
By: Robin Greenwood
Aggregate investment in cash and liquid assets as a share of total corporate investment is negatively related to subsequent U.S. stock market returns between 1947 and 2003. The share of cash in total investment is a more stable predictor of returns than scaled price... View Details
- 2005
- Working Paper
Money Illusion in the Stock Market: The Modigliani-Cohn Hypothesis
By: Randolph B. Cohen, Christopher Polk and Tuomo Vuolteenaho
Modigliani and Cohn [1979] hypothesize that the stock market suffers from money illusion, discounting real cash flows at nominal discount rates. While previous research has focused on the pricing of the aggregate stock market relative to Treasury bills, the... View Details
Cohen, Randolph B., Christopher Polk, and Tuomo Vuolteenaho. "Money Illusion in the Stock Market: The Modigliani-Cohn Hypothesis." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 11018, January 2005.
- 2005
- Working Paper
Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions
By: Malcolm Baker, Ryan Taliaferro and Jeffrey Wurgler
A number of studies claim that aggregate managerial decision variables, such as aggregate equity issuance, have power to predict stock or bond market returns. Recent research argues that these results may be driven by an aggregate time-series version of Schultz's... View Details
Keywords: Managerial Roles; Equity; Market Timing; Financial Instruments; Investment Return; Mathematical Methods
Baker, Malcolm, Ryan Taliaferro, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 10823, January 2005. (First Draft in 2004.)
- June 2004
- Article
Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeremy Stein
We build a model that helps to explain why increases in liquidity-such as lower bid-ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher turnover-predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational... View Details
Keywords: Markets; Financial Liquidity; Price; Trade; Sales; Equity; Information; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Accounting Industry
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeremy Stein. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator." Journal of Financial Markets 7, no. 3 (June 2004): 271–299.
- July 2003
- Article
The Effects of Monetary Magnitude and Level of Aggregation on the Temporal Framing of Price
Keywords: Price
Gourville, John T. "The Effects of Monetary Magnitude and Level of Aggregation on the Temporal Framing of Price." Marketing Letters 14, no. 2 (July 2003): 125–135.
- March 2003 (Revised January 2008)
- Case
Northrop versus TRW
By: Carliss Y. Baldwin and James Quinn
TRW, a leading supplier of advanced technology products for the auto, defense, and aerospace markets, receives an unexpected stock-for-stock offer from defense company Northrop Grumman Corp. The $11.4 billion aggregate offer, which represents a 22% premium over the... View Details
Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Decision Choices and Conditions; Governing and Advisory Boards; Laws and Statutes; Negotiation Tactics; Valuation; Aerospace Industry; Auto Industry; Ohio
Baldwin, Carliss Y., and James Quinn. "Northrop versus TRW." Harvard Business School Case 903-115, March 2003. (Revised January 2008.)
- November 2002
- Background Note
Strategy and Sources of Motion Picture Finance, The
By: Mihir A. Desai, Gabriel J. Loeb and Mark Veblen
This case considers the alternative financing mechanisms for film financing, the evolution of film finance in the United States, and the nature of tax-motivated film financing in the United States and around the world. It develops the strategy driving motion picture... View Details
Keywords: Film Entertainment; Financial Instruments; Financial Strategy; Financing and Loans; Globalized Markets and Industries; Taxation; Motivation and Incentives; Competitive Strategy; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; United States
Desai, Mihir A., Gabriel J. Loeb, and Mark Veblen. "Strategy and Sources of Motion Picture Finance, The." Harvard Business School Background Note 203-007, November 2002.
- 2002
- Other Unpublished Work
Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeremy Stein
We build a model that helps to explain why increases in liquidity—such as lower bid–ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher turnover—predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational... View Details
Keywords: Price; Financial Liquidity; Trade; Valuation; Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Equity; Stock Shares; Investment Return
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeremy Stein. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator." NBER Working Paper Series, 2002. (First draft in 2001.)
- May 2001 (Revised January 2003)
- Case
Calpine Corporation: The Evolution from Project to Corporate Finance
By: Benjamin C. Esty and Michael Kane
In early 1999, Calpine Corp.'s CEO Pete Cartwright adopted an aggressive growth strategy with the goal of increasing the company's aggregate generating capacity from approximately 3,000 to 15,000 megawatts (MW) by 2004. He believed there was a fleeting opportunity to... View Details
Keywords: Information Technology; Cost of Capital; Project Finance; Adaptation; Profit; Financial Strategy; Corporate Finance; Energy Industry; United States
Esty, Benjamin C., and Michael Kane. "Calpine Corporation: The Evolution from Project to Corporate Finance." Harvard Business School Case 201-098, May 2001. (Revised January 2003.)
- October 2000
- Article
The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
The share of equity issues in total new equity and debt issues is a strong predictor of U.S. stock market returns between 1928 and 1997. In particular, firms issue more equity than debt just before periods of low market returns. The equity share in new issues has... View Details
Keywords: Equity; Borrowing and Debt; Stocks; Markets; Debt Securities; Forecasting and Prediction; Accounting Industry; United States
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns." Journal of Finance 55, no. 5 (October 2000): 2219–57.
- January 2000 (Revised October 2002)
- Case
Cambridge Hospital Community Health Network - The Primary Care Unit
By: V.G. Narayanan, Lisa Brem and Ryan Moore
The Cambridge Hospital Community Health Network needed to gain a better understanding of its unit-of-service costs, which had been rising at a rate of 10% per year. The network's step-down costing system gave only aggregate costing information, and there was some... View Details
Keywords: Activity Based Costing and Management; Health Care and Treatment; Cost Accounting; Cost; Network Effects; Health Industry; Service Industry; Massachusetts
Narayanan, V.G., Lisa Brem, and Ryan Moore. "Cambridge Hospital Community Health Network - The Primary Care Unit." Harvard Business School Case 100-054, January 2000. (Revised October 2002.)
- 16 July 1999
- Article
Measuring Aggregate Process Performance Using AHP
By: Frances X. Frei and Patrick T. Harker
Frei, Frances X., and Patrick T. Harker. "Measuring Aggregate Process Performance Using AHP." European Journal of Operational Research 116, no. 2 (16 July 1999): 436–442.
- Article
How Much Does Industry Matter, Really?
By: A. M. McGahan and M. E. Porter
In this paper, we examine the importance of year, industry, corporate-parent, and business-specific effects on the profitability of U.S. public corporations within specific 4-digit SIC categories. Our results indicate that year, industry, corporate-parent, and... View Details
McGahan, A. M., and M. E. Porter. "How Much Does Industry Matter, Really?" Special Issue on Organizational and Competitive Influences on Strategy and Performance. Strategic Management Journal 18, no. S1 (July 1997): 15–30.
- 1996
- Article
Limits on Interest Rate Rules in the IS Model
By: William R. Kerr and Robert G. King
There has been a substantial amount of research on interest rate rules. This literature finds that the feasibility and desirability of interest rate rules depends on the structure of the model used to approximate macroeconomic reality. We employ a series of... View Details
Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Macroeconomics; Interest Rates; Price; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Performance Expectations
Kerr, William R., and Robert G. King. "Limits on Interest Rate Rules in the IS Model." Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly 82, no. 2 (1996): 47–75.
- December 1994
- Background Note
Cost System Analysis
By: Robert S. Kaplan
Describes six characteristics of cost systems: standard vs. actual costs; job-order vs. process costing; variable vs. full costs; disaggregate vs. aggregate cost accumulation; and specific vs. average rates for labor and overhead. A rewritten version of an earlier... View Details
Kaplan, Robert S. "Cost System Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 195-181, December 1994.