Publications

April 2005
Case

Merrill Lynch in 2003: Sunny Skies Ahead?

By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and David Kiron

Merrill Lynch (ML) is at a crossroads. Stan O'Neal became its CEO and implemented a radical cost-cutting program. In addition, the company dot-com continues to recover from the fallout from the Enron and dot-com scandals. What are the future prospects for ML? Can the... View Details

Keywords: Management Teams; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Condition; Investment; Financial Services Industry; Insurance Industry; United States

Educators

January 1992 (Revised March 1993)
Case

Maison Bouygues

By: John A. Quelch

The vice president of marketing is reviewing the 1991 marketing plan and budget for Maison Bouygues, the leading builder of new single family homes in France. Due to recession, the company's sales are forecast to be flat and adjustments may need to be made in the... View Details

Keywords: Housing; Marketing Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Brands and Branding; Construction Industry; France

Educators

2023
Working Paper

Evaluation and Learning in R&D Investment

By: Alexander P. Frankel, Joshua L. Krieger, Danielle Li and Dimitris Papanikolaou

We examine the role of spillover learning in shaping the value of exploratory versus incremental R&D. Using data from drug development, we show that novel drug candidates generate more knowledge spillovers than incremental ones. Despite being less likely to reach... View Details

Keywords: Research and Development; Forecasting and Prediction; Valuation; Pharmaceutical Industry

Article

Cultural Diversity on Wall Street: Evidence from Consensus Earnings Forecasts

By: Kenneth Merkley, Roni Michaely and Joseph Pacelli

We examine how cultural differences among agents influence the aggregate outcome of a common forecasting task. Using both exogenous shocks to sell-side analyst diversity and panel regression methods, we find that increases in analyst cultural diversity positively... View Details

Keywords: Culture; Forecasting; Sell-side Analysts; Information Aggregation; Diversity; Forecasting and Prediction; Information; Performance Improvement

July 1981
Article

On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part I: An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts

By: Robert C. Merton

Keywords: Investment; Performance; Theory; Value; Forecasting and Prediction; Markets

September 2008 (Revised September 2010)
Exercise

Exercise on Estimation

By: Jason Riis and John T. Gourville

This exercise is meant to assess students' level of confidence around everyday business and general knowledge questions, for the purpose of identifying where they are overconfident and underconfident. View Details

Keywords: Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Personal Characteristics

winter 1996
Article

The Market Pricing of Cash Flow Forecasts: Discounted Cash Flow vs. the Method of Comparables

By: S. N. Kaplan and R. S. Ruback

Keywords: Price; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction

15 May 2007
First Look

First Look: May 15, 2007

economic models predict that they do not systematically differ. With online grocery data, we show that people are decreasingly impatient the further in the future their choices will take effect. In general, as the delay between order... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

July 2010
Teaching Note

Monmouth, Inc. (Brief Case)

By: Thomas R. Piper and Heide Abelli

Teaching Note for 4226. View Details

Keywords: Competitive Bidding; Forecasting; Stock Offerings; Mergers ＆ Acquisitions; Valuation, Margins; Stocks; Valuation; Mergers and Acquisitions; Forecasting and Prediction; Bids and Bidding

October 1990 (Revised May 1994)
Case

Confederated Pulp & Paper

By: David E. Bell

A rewritten version of an old case that updates the dates and prices and simplifies the economics. The issue is still one of determining a suitable inventory of wood for the mill to last through the winter. View Details

Keywords: History; Supply Chain Management; Spending; Forecasting and Prediction; Economic Growth; Information Management; Pulp and Paper Industry

Educators

01 Mar 2016
First Look

March 1, 2016

their demand for a risky asset by weighing two signals: an average of the asset’s past price changes and the asset’s degree of overvaluation. The two signals are in conflict, and investors “waver” over time in the relative weight they put on them. The model View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

Fast Answer

Sustainability in Waste Management

management. What a Waste 2.0: A Global Snapshot of Solid Waste Management to 2050 This report aggregates solid waste data at the national and urban level and predicts waste generation to 2030 and 2050. In addition to the waste... View Details

01 Dec 2014
News

Making Big Data Fashionable

jeans, for instance, will get more eyes on social media. For brands like red-carpet favorite Marchesa, it’s a useful new tool in that never-ending quest to predict what consumers want next week, next month, next season. It turns out... View Details

Keywords: Christine Lejeune; fashion; Market Research, Photo, Translation, Veterinary and Other Services; Professional Services

04 Jul 2016
Research & Ideas

Is Your Org Chart Stuck in a Rut? Try a Scientific Experiment

Christensen. “But if data is only available about the past, we’re essentially teaching our students only to take action when the game is over. A better way to think about the problem is to be able to look into the future and predict... View Details

Keywords: by Carmen Nobel

15 Sep 2015
First Look

September 15, 2015

pricing decisions on a daily basis. Rue La La is in the online fashion sample sales industry, where they offer extremely limited-time discounts on designer apparel and accessories. One of the retailer's main challenges is pricing and View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

1972
Chapter

Optimal Utilization of Market Forecasts and the Evaluation of Portfolio Performance

By: Michael Jensen

Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation

SSRN

October 2024
Article

Canary Categories

By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester

Past customer spending in a category is generally a positive signal of future customer spending. We show that there exist “canary categories” for which the reverse is true. Purchases in these categories are a signal that customers are less likely to return to that... View Details

Keywords: Churn; Churn Management; Churn/retention; Assortment Planning; Retail; Retailing; Retailing Industry; Preference Heterogeneity; Assortment Optimization; Customers; Retention; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Retail Industry

January 2021
Article

Using Models to Persuade

By: Joshua Schwartzstein and Adi Sunderam

We present a framework where "model persuaders" influence receivers’ beliefs by proposing models that organize past data to make predictions. Receivers are assumed to find models more compelling when they better explain the data, fixing receivers’ prior beliefs. Model... View Details

Keywords: Model Persuasion; Analytics and Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods; Framework

2018
Working Paper

Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing.

By: Xiaojia Guo, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. and Yael Grushka-Cockayne

We introduce an exponential smoothing model that a manager can use to forecast the demand of a new product or service. The model has five features that make it suitable for accurately forecasting product life cycles at scale. First, the trend in our model follows the... View Details

Keywords: New Product Development; Demand Forecasting; Product Adoption; Innovation Diffusion; Product Development; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Adoption

SSRN