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(2,882)
- News (476)
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- Faculty Publications (1,425)
Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(2,882)
- News (476)
- Research (2,210)
- Events (43)
- Multimedia (14)
- Faculty Publications (1,425)
- 2015
- Working Paper
The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications
By: Emil Siriwardane
I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross... View Details
Siriwardane, Emil. "The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-061, November 2015.
- 2013
- Article
Boardroom Centrality and Firm Performance
By: David F. Larcker, Eric C. So and Charles C.Y. Wang
Firms with central or well-connected boards of directors earn superior risk-adjusted stock returns. Initiating a long position in the most central firms and a short position in the least central firms earns an average risk-adjusted return of 4.68% per year. Firms with... View Details
Larcker, David F., Eric C. So, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Boardroom Centrality and Firm Performance." Journal of Accounting & Economics 55, nos. 2-3 (April–May 2013): 225–250.
- June 2009 (Revised March 2010)
- Supplement
Hansson Private Label, Inc.: Evaluating an Investment in Expansion, Student Spreadsheet (Brief Case)
By: Erik Stafford and Joel L. Heilprin
- 1997
- Chapter
On the Dynamics of Forecasting in Technologically Complex Environments: The Unexpectedly Long Old Age of Optical Lithography
Keywords: History; Information Technology; Situation or Environment; Complexity; Forecasting and Prediction; Technology Industry
Henderson, Rebecca M. "On the Dynamics of Forecasting in Technologically Complex Environments: The Unexpectedly Long Old Age of Optical Lithography." In Technological Innovation: Oversights and Foresights, edited by Raghu Garud, Praveen Rattan Nayyar, and Zur Baruch Shapira. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997.
- April 2008
- Tutorial
Finance: An Introductory Online Course
By: Timothy A. Luehrman, Brenda W. Chia and Michelle Rendall
The Finance Online Course provides a fundamental understanding of the principles, analytical tools, and knowledge needed to make good investment and financing decisions. The course introduces students to finance ratios, forecasting methods, capital structure theory,... View Details
- 04 Sep 2019
- News
Impact: Where Science and Business Intersect
University. Indeed, HBS is catalyzing the development of discoveries and enterprises that will benefit society. Annual giving to the HBS Fund by alumni and friends makes this possible. Advancing Diagnostics that Can Save Lives Predicting... View Details
- November 2024
- Article
Perceptions About Monetary Policy
By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam
We estimate perceptions about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions varies substantially over time,... View Details
Bauer, Michael D., Carolin Pflueger, and Adi Sunderam. "Perceptions About Monetary Policy." Quarterly Journal of Economics 139, no. 4 (November 2024): 2227–2278.
- February 2011
- Article
Understanding Analysts’ Use and Under-use of Stock Returns and Other Analysts’ Forecasts when Forecasting Earnings
By: Michael B. Clement, Jeffrey Hales and Yanfeng Xue
We investigate analysts' use of stock returns and other analysts' forecast revisions in revising their own forecasts after an earnings announcement. We find that analysts respond more strongly to these signals when the signals are more informative about future earnings... View Details
Keywords: Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Financial Services Industry
Clement, Michael B., Jeffrey Hales, and Yanfeng Xue. "Understanding Analysts’ Use and Under-use of Stock Returns and Other Analysts’ Forecasts when Forecasting Earnings." Journal of Accounting & Economics 51, nos. 1-2 (February 2011): 279–299.
- February 2019
- Case
Miroglio Fashion (A)
By: Sunil Gupta and David Lane
Francesco Cavarero, chief information officer of Miroglio Fashion, Italy’s third-largest retailer of women’s apparel, was trying to bring analytical rigor to the company’s forecasting and inventory management decisions. But fashion is inherently hard to predict. Can... View Details
Keywords: Inventory Management; Demand Forecasting; Artificial Intelligence; Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Operations; Management; Decision Making; AI and Machine Learning; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Fashion Industry
Gupta, Sunil, and David Lane. "Miroglio Fashion (A)." Harvard Business School Case 519-053, February 2019.
- April 2010
- Supplement
Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug, Spreadsheet Supplement (Brief Case)
By: John A. Quelch and Heather Beckham
- May 2007
- Case
Demand and Supply Forecasting at Air Products - Electronics Specialty Materials
Explores the process and inputs behind financial and operational forecasting in the Electronic Specialty Materials unit at Air Products and Chemicals, a global chemical company. The protagonist, John Goldberg, grapples with how to better integrate the two forecasting... View Details
Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Operations; Forecasting and Prediction; Supply and Industry; Finance; Chemical Industry
Kulp, Susan L., Taylor Randall, Shoshanah Cohen, and Zahra Kanji. "Demand and Supply Forecasting at Air Products - Electronics Specialty Materials." Harvard Business School Case 107-018, May 2007.
- October 2005 (Revised February 2010)
- Background Note
Calculating Free Cash Flows
By: Robin Greenwood and David S. Scharfstein
Outlines the mechanics of calculating free cash flows from historical and proforma financial statements. Focuses on the mechanical process of transforming numbers from financial forecasts into cash flows. View Details
Greenwood, Robin, and David S. Scharfstein. "Calculating Free Cash Flows." Harvard Business School Background Note 206-028, October 2005. (Revised February 2010.)
- 29 May 2009
- Research Event
Business Summit: Introduction to the Future of Market Capitalism
research project exploring the views of global business leaders and HBS faculty on what might threaten the world's economic progress. The spread of market capitalism around the world over the past 100 years has lifted the prosperity of many nations and people. Research... View Details
Keywords: Re: Joseph L. Bower
- 10 Oct 2018
- News
Working with a Giver’s Spirit
percent. Give low- and middle-income customers access to low-interest-rate loans by using a predictive algorithm that uses nontraditional data to measures creditworthiness. “There’s a spectrum of behavior,” says Ayala. “On the one extreme... View Details
- 12 Feb 2007
- Lessons from the Classroom
‘UpTick’ Brings Wall Street Pressure to Students
situations in classroom discussion. It's not a bad way to learn, but Coval and colleague Erik Stafford felt the need for a classroom tool that would more effectively communicate the dynamic nature of their subject. The theory predicts the... View Details
- 19 Aug 2002
- Research & Ideas
Here Comes Internet2—Time to Shed Dot Vertigo
inroads in important ways in collaborative learning and R&D. When privatization and business applications start to enter the picture, which he predicted would happen by the year 2005, managers will have much to gain—or lose. Research... View Details
Keywords: by Martha Lagace
- April 2023
- Article
Performance on Patient Experience Measures of Former Chief Medical Residents as Physician Exemplars Chosen by the Profession
By: Lucy Chen and J. Michael McWilliams
OBJECTIVE To compare care for patients of primary care physicians (PCPs) who were former chiefs with care for patients of nonchief PCPs.
DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Using 2010 to 2018 Medicare Fee-For-Service Consumer Assessment of Healthcare... View Details
DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Using 2010 to 2018 Medicare Fee-For-Service Consumer Assessment of Healthcare... View Details
Keywords: Performance Evaluation; Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Competency and Skills; Surveys; Health Industry
Chen, Lucy, and J. Michael McWilliams. "Performance on Patient Experience Measures of Former Chief Medical Residents as Physician Exemplars Chosen by the Profession." JAMA Internal Medicine 183, no. 4 (April 2023): 350–359.
- 1972
- Chapter
Optimal Utilization of Market Forecasts and the Evaluation of Portfolio Performance
By: Michael Jensen
Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation
Jensen, Michael. "Optimal Utilization of Market Forecasts and the Evaluation of Portfolio Performance." In Mathematical Methods in Finance, edited by G. P. Szego and Karl Shell. North-Holland Publishing Company, 1972.
- October 2024
- Article
Canary Categories
By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester
Past customer spending in a category is generally a positive signal of future customer spending. We show that there exist “canary categories” for which the reverse is true. Purchases in these categories are a signal that customers are less likely to return to that... View Details
Keywords: Churn; Churn Management; Churn/retention; Assortment Planning; Retail; Retailing; Retailing Industry; Preference Heterogeneity; Assortment Optimization; Customers; Retention; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Retail Industry
Anderson, Eric, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli, and Duncan Simester. "Canary Categories." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 61, no. 5 (October 2024): 872–890.