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  • All HBS Web  (2,886)
    • News  (476)
    • Research  (2,213)
    • Events  (43)
    • Multimedia  (14)
  • Faculty Publications  (1,429)

Show Results For

  • All HBS Web  (2,886)
    • News  (476)
    • Research  (2,213)
    • Events  (43)
    • Multimedia  (14)
  • Faculty Publications  (1,429)
← Page 85 of 2,886 Results →
  • 1972
  • Chapter

Optimal Utilization of Market Forecasts and the Evaluation of Portfolio Performance

By: Michael Jensen
Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation
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Jensen, Michael. "Optimal Utilization of Market Forecasts and the Evaluation of Portfolio Performance." In Mathematical Methods in Finance, edited by G. P. Szego and Karl Shell. North-Holland Publishing Company, 1972.
  • October 2024
  • Article

Canary Categories

By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester
Past customer spending in a category is generally a positive signal of future customer spending. We show that there exist “canary categories” for which the reverse is true. Purchases in these categories are a signal that customers are less likely to return to that... View Details
Keywords: Churn; Churn Management; Churn/retention; Assortment Planning; Retail; Retailing; Retailing Industry; Preference Heterogeneity; Assortment Optimization; Customers; Retention; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Retail Industry
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Anderson, Eric, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli, and Duncan Simester. "Canary Categories." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 61, no. 5 (October 2024): 872–890.
  • January 2021
  • Article

Using Models to Persuade

By: Joshua Schwartzstein and Adi Sunderam
We present a framework where "model persuaders" influence receivers’ beliefs by proposing models that organize past data to make predictions. Receivers are assumed to find models more compelling when they better explain the data, fixing receivers’ prior beliefs. Model... View Details
Keywords: Model Persuasion; Analytics and Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods; Framework
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Schwartzstein, Joshua, and Adi Sunderam. "Using Models to Persuade." American Economic Review 111, no. 1 (January 2021): 276–323.
  • 2018
  • Working Paper

Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing.

By: Xiaojia Guo, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
We introduce an exponential smoothing model that a manager can use to forecast the demand of a new product or service. The model has five features that make it suitable for accurately forecasting product life cycles at scale. First, the trend in our model follows the... View Details
Keywords: New Product Development; Demand Forecasting; Product Adoption; Innovation Diffusion; Product Development; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Adoption
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Guo, Xiaojia, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., and Yael Grushka-Cockayne. "Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-038, October 2018. (Darden Business School Working Paper, No. 2805244, July 2016.)
  • 17 Oct 2018
  • Working Paper Summaries

Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing

Keywords: by Xiaojia Guo, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
  • April 2010
  • Supplement

Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug, Faculty Spreadsheet (Brief Case)

By: John A. Quelch and Heather Beckham
Keywords: Return On Investment; Forecasting; Pricing Policies; Demand Planning; Demand and Consumers; Price; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return
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Quelch, John A., and Heather Beckham. "Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug, Faculty Spreadsheet (Brief Case)." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 104-187, April 2010.
  • November 1990
  • Case

Chemplan Corp.: Paint-Rite Division

By: Paul A. Vatter
An exercise with data that allows a discussion of regression analysis as a tool for forecasting and understanding structure. View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Framework; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods
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Vatter, Paul A. "Chemplan Corp.: Paint-Rite Division." Harvard Business School Case 191-090, November 1990.
  • 14 Mar 2016
  • Research & Ideas

The Surprising Connection between 1930s Weather and Today's Labor Unions

unionization In setting out to explain the differences in unionization rates by location, the researchers noticed that state-to-state union levels differed before and after the 1930s. Whether a state had a percentage of unionized employees in 1929 did not View Details
Keywords: by Carmen Nobel
  • 2016
  • Working Paper

Private Networks of Managers and Financial Analysts and Their Externality on a Firm's Information Environment

By: Zengquan Li, T.J. Wong and Gwen Yu
When emerging market firms raise external capital, they face a tradeoff where greater transparency may lead to a lower cost of capital but at the cost of revealing proprietary information in their relational business practices. We find that firms overcome this... View Details
Keywords: Emerging Market; Financial Analysts; Information; Emerging Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Corporate Governance
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Li, Zengquan, T.J. Wong, and Gwen Yu. "Private Networks of Managers and Financial Analysts and Their Externality on a Firm's Information Environment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-135, June 2016. (Revised October 2016.)
  • Article

The Valuation of Cash Flow Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis

By: S. N. Kaplan and R. S. Ruback
Keywords: Valuation; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction; Theory
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Kaplan, S. N., and R. S. Ruback. "The Valuation of Cash Flow Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis." Journal of Finance 50, no. 4 (September 1995).
  • June 2013
  • Article

Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns

By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the... View Details
Keywords: Quality; Bonds; Forecasting and Prediction; Credit
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Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel G. Hanson. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns." Review of Financial Studies 26, no. 6 (June 2013): 1483–1525. (Internet Appendix Here.)
  • September 2010
  • Supplement

New Heritage Doll Company, Faculty Spreadsheet Supplement (Brief Case)

By: Timothy A. Luehrman and Heide Abelli
Keywords: Forecasting; Resource Management; Resource Allocation; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Budgeting
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Luehrman, Timothy A., and Heide Abelli. "New Heritage Doll Company, Faculty Spreadsheet Supplement (Brief Case)." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 104-216, September 2010.
  • February 2011 (Revised February 2011)
  • Supplement

The Auction for Burger King (A) (CW)

By: Malcolm P. Baker and David Lane
The courseware contains information on comparable firms and transactions as well as a forecasting model using the case data. View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Auctions; Market Transactions; Valuation; Service Industry
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Baker, Malcolm P., and David Lane. "The Auction for Burger King (A) (CW)." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 211-712, February 2011. (Revised February 2011.)
  • 09 Jan 2014
  • Research & Ideas

Excerpt: ’Fortune Tellers’

early twentieth century. It is a story, in part, about how fortune telling was professionalized. Unlike Adams, whose insights into the future rested on her purported ability to read the stars, the entrepreneurs profiled here were statisticians and economists who based... View Details
Keywords: by Walter A. Friedman
  • 08 Aug 2006
  • First Look

First Look: August 8, 2006

recency) but are more cautious (positive recency). Paper not available Learning and Equilibrium As Useful Approximations: Accuracy of Prediction on Randomly Selected Constant Sum Games Author:Ido Erev, Alvin E. Roth, Robert L. Slonim, and... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 01 Jan 2006
  • News

Who Has the D

Keywords: Paul Rogers, Marcia Blenko
  • December 2007
  • Article

The Roles of Task-Specific Experience and Innate Ability in Understanding Analyst Performance

By: Michael B. Clement, Lisa Koonce and Thomas Lopez
Considerable debate exists about what analyst experience measures and whether analysts learn from their experiences. Extant research has argued that once innate ability is considered, analysts’ general and firm-specific experiences are not relevant to understanding... View Details
Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Learning; Performance Evaluation; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Services Industry
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Clement, Michael B., Lisa Koonce, and Thomas Lopez. "The Roles of Task-Specific Experience and Innate Ability in Understanding Analyst Performance." Journal of Accounting & Economics 44, no. 3 (December 2007): 378–398.
  • September 2009 (Revised November 2010)
  • Case

Marquee: The Business of Nightlife

By: Anita Elberse, Ryan Barlow and Sheldon Wong
In December 2008, nightlife impresario Noah Tepperberg celebrated the fifth anniversary of his New York City nightclub Marquee. While most clubs are over within their first one-and-a-half years, Tepperberg has succeeded in keeping Marquee one of NYC's hottest clubs for... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cost Management; Marketing Strategy; Competitive Strategy
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Elberse, Anita, Ryan Barlow, and Sheldon Wong. "Marquee: The Business of Nightlife." Harvard Business School Multimedia/Video Case 510-702, September 2009. (Revised November 2010.)
  • 28 Jan 2014
  • News

When Rising Revenue Spells Trouble

Keywords: disruption; innovation; change management
  • 12 Dec 2019
  • Research & Ideas

How to Turn Down the Boil on Group Conflict

organizations predict how people outside of the organization perceive it, and how they might get that judgment wrong,” Lees says. “It didn’t take me long to realize how that sort of judgment applies in other contexts.” He teamed up with... View Details
Keywords: by Michael Blanding
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