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(2,886)
- News (476)
- Research (2,213)
- Events (43)
- Multimedia (14)
- Faculty Publications (1,429)
Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(2,886)
- News (476)
- Research (2,213)
- Events (43)
- Multimedia (14)
- Faculty Publications (1,429)
- 1972
- Chapter
Optimal Utilization of Market Forecasts and the Evaluation of Portfolio Performance
By: Michael Jensen
Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation
Jensen, Michael. "Optimal Utilization of Market Forecasts and the Evaluation of Portfolio Performance." In Mathematical Methods in Finance, edited by G. P. Szego and Karl Shell. North-Holland Publishing Company, 1972.
- October 2024
- Article
Canary Categories
By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester
Past customer spending in a category is generally a positive signal of future customer spending. We show that there exist “canary categories” for which the reverse is true. Purchases in these categories are a signal that customers are less likely to return to that... View Details
Keywords: Churn; Churn Management; Churn/retention; Assortment Planning; Retail; Retailing; Retailing Industry; Preference Heterogeneity; Assortment Optimization; Customers; Retention; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Retail Industry
Anderson, Eric, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli, and Duncan Simester. "Canary Categories." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 61, no. 5 (October 2024): 872–890.
- January 2021
- Article
Using Models to Persuade
By: Joshua Schwartzstein and Adi Sunderam
We present a framework where "model persuaders" influence receivers’ beliefs by proposing models that organize past data to make predictions. Receivers are assumed to find models more compelling when they better explain the data, fixing receivers’ prior beliefs. Model... View Details
Keywords: Model Persuasion; Analytics and Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods; Framework
Schwartzstein, Joshua, and Adi Sunderam. "Using Models to Persuade." American Economic Review 111, no. 1 (January 2021): 276–323.
- 2018
- Working Paper
Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing.
By: Xiaojia Guo, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
We introduce an exponential smoothing model that a manager can use to forecast the demand of a new product or service. The model has five features that make it suitable for accurately forecasting product life cycles at scale. First, the trend in our model follows the... View Details
Keywords: New Product Development; Demand Forecasting; Product Adoption; Innovation Diffusion; Product Development; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Adoption
Guo, Xiaojia, Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., and Yael Grushka-Cockayne. "Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-038, October 2018. (Darden Business School Working Paper, No. 2805244, July 2016.)
- 17 Oct 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Quantile Forecasts of Product Life Cycles Using Exponential Smoothing
- April 2010
- Supplement
Metabical: Pricing, Packaging, and Demand Forecasting Recommendations for a New Weight Loss Drug, Faculty Spreadsheet (Brief Case)
By: John A. Quelch and Heather Beckham
- November 1990
- Case
Chemplan Corp.: Paint-Rite Division
By: Paul A. Vatter
An exercise with data that allows a discussion of regression analysis as a tool for forecasting and understanding structure. View Details
Vatter, Paul A. "Chemplan Corp.: Paint-Rite Division." Harvard Business School Case 191-090, November 1990.
- 14 Mar 2016
- Research & Ideas
The Surprising Connection between 1930s Weather and Today's Labor Unions
unionization In setting out to explain the differences in unionization rates by location, the researchers noticed that state-to-state union levels differed before and after the 1930s. Whether a state had a percentage of unionized employees in 1929 did not View Details
Keywords: by Carmen Nobel
- 2016
- Working Paper
Private Networks of Managers and Financial Analysts and Their Externality on a Firm's Information Environment
By: Zengquan Li, T.J. Wong and Gwen Yu
When emerging market firms raise external capital, they face a tradeoff where greater transparency may lead to a lower cost of capital but at the cost of revealing proprietary information in their relational business practices. We find that firms overcome this... View Details
Keywords: Emerging Market; Financial Analysts; Information; Emerging Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Corporate Governance
Li, Zengquan, T.J. Wong, and Gwen Yu. "Private Networks of Managers and Financial Analysts and Their Externality on a Firm's Information Environment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-135, June 2016. (Revised October 2016.)
- Article
The Valuation of Cash Flow Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis
By: S. N. Kaplan and R. S. Ruback
Kaplan, S. N., and R. S. Ruback. "The Valuation of Cash Flow Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis." Journal of Finance 50, no. 4 (September 1995).
- June 2013
- Article
Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns
By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the... View Details
Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel G. Hanson. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns." Review of Financial Studies 26, no. 6 (June 2013): 1483–1525. (Internet Appendix Here.)
- September 2010
- Supplement
New Heritage Doll Company, Faculty Spreadsheet Supplement (Brief Case)
By: Timothy A. Luehrman and Heide Abelli
- February 2011 (Revised February 2011)
- Supplement
The Auction for Burger King (A) (CW)
By: Malcolm P. Baker and David Lane
The courseware contains information on comparable firms and transactions as well as a forecasting model using the case data. View Details
- 09 Jan 2014
- Research & Ideas
Excerpt: ’Fortune Tellers’
early twentieth century. It is a story, in part, about how fortune telling was professionalized. Unlike Adams, whose insights into the future rested on her purported ability to read the stars, the entrepreneurs profiled here were statisticians and economists who based... View Details
Keywords: by Walter A. Friedman
- 08 Aug 2006
- First Look
First Look: August 8, 2006
recency) but are more cautious (positive recency). Paper not available Learning and Equilibrium As Useful Approximations: Accuracy of Prediction on Randomly Selected Constant Sum Games Author:Ido Erev, Alvin E. Roth, Robert L. Slonim, and... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- December 2007
- Article
The Roles of Task-Specific Experience and Innate Ability in Understanding Analyst Performance
By: Michael B. Clement, Lisa Koonce and Thomas Lopez
Considerable debate exists about what analyst experience measures and whether analysts learn from their experiences. Extant research has argued that once innate ability is considered, analysts’ general and firm-specific experiences are not relevant to understanding... View Details
Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Learning; Performance Evaluation; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Services Industry
Clement, Michael B., Lisa Koonce, and Thomas Lopez. "The Roles of Task-Specific Experience and Innate Ability in Understanding Analyst Performance." Journal of Accounting & Economics 44, no. 3 (December 2007): 378–398.
- September 2009 (Revised November 2010)
- Case
Marquee: The Business of Nightlife
By: Anita Elberse, Ryan Barlow and Sheldon Wong
In December 2008, nightlife impresario Noah Tepperberg celebrated the fifth anniversary of his New York City nightclub Marquee. While most clubs are over within their first one-and-a-half years, Tepperberg has succeeded in keeping Marquee one of NYC's hottest clubs for... View Details
Elberse, Anita, Ryan Barlow, and Sheldon Wong. "Marquee: The Business of Nightlife." Harvard Business School Multimedia/Video Case 510-702, September 2009. (Revised November 2010.)
- 28 Jan 2014
- News
When Rising Revenue Spells Trouble
- 12 Dec 2019
- Research & Ideas
How to Turn Down the Boil on Group Conflict
organizations predict how people outside of the organization perceive it, and how they might get that judgment wrong,” Lees says. “It didn’t take me long to realize how that sort of judgment applies in other contexts.” He teamed up with... View Details
Keywords: by Michael Blanding