Publications

August 2020 (Revised September 2020)
Technical Note

Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models

By: Michael W. Toffel, Natalie Epstein, Kris Ferreira and Yael Grushka-Cockayne

The note introduces a variety of methods to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models. The note begins by briefly introducing machine learning, overfitting, training versus test datasets, and cross validation. The following accuracy metrics and tools... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Statistics; Econometric Analyses; Experimental Methods; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Mathematical Methods

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Article

Crowdsourcing City Government: Using Tournaments to Improve Inspection Accuracy

By: Edward Glaeser, Andrew Hillis, Scott Duke Kominers and Michael Luca

The proliferation of big data makes it possible to better target city services like hygiene inspections, but city governments rarely have the in-house talent needed for developing prediction algorithms. Cities could hire consultants, but a cheaper alternative is to... View Details

Keywords: User-generated Content; Operations; Tournaments; Policy-making; Machine Learning; Online Platforms; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods; City; Infrastructure; Business Processes; Government and Politics

Article

How Elastic Are Preferences for Redistribution? Evidence from Randomized Survey Experiments

By: Ilyana Kuziemko, Michael I. Norton, Emmanuel Saez and Stefanie Stantcheva

We analyze randomized online survey experiments providing interactive, customized information on U.S. income inequality, the link between top income tax rates and economic growth, and the estate tax. The treatment has large effects on views about inequality but only... View Details

Keywords: Income; Taxation; Economic Growth; United States

Fall 2016
Article

The Integrity of Private Third-party Compliance Monitoring

By: Jodi L. Short and Michael W. Toffel

Government agencies are increasingly turning to private, third-party monitors to inspect and assess regulated entities’ compliance with law. The integrity of these regulatory regimes rests on the validity of the information third-party monitors provide to regulators.... View Details

Keywords: Regulation; Compliance; Compliance Policies; Conflict Of Interest; Independent Third Party; Inspection; Audit Quality; Auditor; Audit; Environment; Safety; Conflict of Interests; Working Conditions; Labor; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Governance Compliance; Accounting Audits

2015
Working Paper

The Integrity of Private Third-party Compliance Monitoring

By: Jodi L. Short and Michael W. Toffel

Government agencies are increasingly turning to private, third-party monitors to inspect and assess regulated entities’ compliance with law. The integrity of these regulatory regimes rests on the validity of the information third-party monitors provide to regulators.... View Details

SSRN

2007
Report

Competitiveness at the Crossroads: Choosing the Future Direction of the Russian Economy

By: Michael E. Porter and Christian H.M. Ketels

The report synthesizes, interprets, and draws implications about Russia's economic progress, applying the Porter competitiveness framework. It is part of a Strategic Audit of the Russian Federation, a broader set of research activities coordinated by CSR to provide a... View Details

Keywords: Macroeconomics; Microeconomics; Globalized Economies and Regions; Policy; Business and Government Relations; Competitive Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Russia

18 Nov 2016
Conference Presentation

Rawlsian Fairness for Machine Learning

By: Matthew Joseph, Michael J. Kearns, Jamie Morgenstern, Seth Neel and Aaron Leon Roth

Motivated by concerns that automated decision-making procedures can unintentionally lead to discriminatory behavior, we study a technical definition of fairness modeled after John Rawls' notion of "fair equality of opportunity". In the context of a simple model of... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Algorithms; Fairness; Decision Making; Mathematical Methods

12 Jul 2016
First Look

July 12, 2016

on preventing them. She outlines five tactics that research has shown to be effective: encourage reciprocity. You can build trust and prompt other parties to disclose strategic information by sharing information yourself. Ask the right... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

January 2021
Case

The FIRE Savings Calculator

By: Michael Parzen and Paul Hamilton

This case follows Carol Muñoz, a member of the Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) lifestyle movement. At the age of 45, Carol is considering retiring and living off the $1 million she has accumulated. Using Monte Carlo simulation, Carol forecasts the... View Details

Keywords: Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Strategy; Investment Portfolio; Investment Return; Personal Finance; Saving; Risk and Uncertainty; Diversification; Theory; Personal Development and Career; Financial Services Industry

Article

Happiness Runs in a Circular Motion: Evidence for a Positive Feedback Loop between Prosocial Spending and Happiness

By: Lara B. Aknin, Elizabeth W. Dunn and Michael I. Norton

We examine whether a positive feedback loop exists between spending money on others (i.e. prosocial spending) and happiness. Participants recalled a previous purchase made for either themselves or someone else and then reported their happiness. Afterward, participants... View Details

Keywords: Prosocial Spending; Happiness; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving

February 2018 (Revised June 2018)
Case

Uruguay: Facing the 21st Century

By: Sophus A. Reinert, Michael Chu and Carin-Isabel Knoop

In the fall of 2017, self-made business leader Edgardo Novick pondered his campaign to be elected President of Uruguay, “the Switzerland of Latin America.” Inspired by populist revolts against the status quo observable worldwide, Novick hoped he could ride popular... View Details

Keywords: Uruguay; Edgardo Novick; Business Cycles; Macroeconomics; Geographic Location; Government and Politics; Wealth and Poverty; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Globalization; Pulp and Paper Industry; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Uruguay

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05 Apr 2011
First Look

First Look: April 5

case:http://cb.hbsp.harvard.edu/cb/product/709469-PDF-ENG Gilt Groupe Michael J. Roberts, William A. Sahlman, and Tamara ObradovHarvard Business School Case 811-049 The case explores decisions faced by Gilt... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

27 Aug 2013
First Look

First Look: August 27

Behavior & Organization What Makes a Critic Tick? Connected Authors and the Determinants of Book Reviews By: Dobrescu, Loretti I., Michael Luca, and Alberto Motta Abstract—This paper investigates the determinants of expert reviews in... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

07 Sep 2011
First Look

First Look: Sept. 7

limitations and constraints others have accepted, and set out to create new realities. This book is motivated by a simple observation: Leadership, innovation, entrepreneurship, creativity, problem solving, business growth-and even... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

02 Apr 2019
First Look

New Research and Ideas, April 2, 2019

Frame Flexibility: The Role of Cognitive and Emotional Framing in Innovation Adoption by Incumbent Firms By: Raffaelli, Ryan, Mary Ann Glynn, and Michael Tushman Abstract—Why do incumbent firms frequently... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

2014
Article

Rituals Alleviate Grieving for Loved Ones, Lovers, and Lotteries

By: Michael I. Norton and Francesca Gino

Three experiments explored the impact of mourning rituals after losses—of loved ones, lovers, and lotteries—on mitigating grief. Participants who were directed to reflect on past rituals or who were assigned to complete novel rituals after experiencing losses reported... View Details

Keywords: Loss; Practice; Emotions

December 2012
Article

Bolstering and Restoring Feelings of Competence via the IKEA Effect

By: Daniel Mochon, Michael I. Norton and Dan Ariely

We examine the underlying process behind the IKEA effect, which is defined as consumers' willingness to pay more for self-created products than for identical products made by others, and explore the factors that influence both consumers' willingness to engage in... View Details

Keywords: Value; Consumer Behavior; Attitudes