Publications

SSRN

Read Now

February 2006 (Revised August 2006)
Case

Kevin McCarthy and Westlake Chemical Corporation (A)

Examines forecasting earnings/performance for a commodity chemical firm during a period of high uncertainty, highlighting the combined effects of input process (natural gas), industry capacity/utilization, and cyclicality. Assuming the role of Kevin McCarthy (the top... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Futures and Commodity Futures; Forecasting and Prediction; Chemicals; Chemical Industry

Educators

08 Aug 2006
First Look

First Look: August 8, 2006

recency) but are more cautious (positive recency). Paper not available Learning and Equilibrium As Useful Approximations: Accuracy of Prediction on Randomly Selected Constant Sum Games Author:Ido Erev, Alvin E. Roth, Robert L. Slonim, and... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

Web

Global Industry Bubble Watch - Behavioral Finance & Financial Stability

Data Global Industry Bubble Watch Download Data Set in Excel View Sector: Consumer Discretionary Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Healthcare Industrials Information Technology Materials Real Estate Telecommunication Services Utilities Sector:... View Details

2010
Working Paper

Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

By: Eric Van den Steen

This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Game Theory; Forecasting and Prediction

Read Now

June 1998
Supplement

MBA Integrative Exercise: General Management, April 1998

By: Carin-Isabel Knoop

Drummond Paris, Regional Pharma Head, Asia/Pacific Novartis AG, discusses the company situation in Indonesia: joint ventures, budget, keeping track, and the prognosis for the future. View Details

Keywords: Business or Company Management; Joint Ventures; Forecasting and Prediction; Pharmaceutical Industry; Indonesia

Article

Political Forecasting as a Management Tool

By: James E. Austin and David Yoffie

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Government and Politics; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques

12 Dec 2019
Research & Ideas

How to Turn Down the Boil on Group Conflict

organizations predict how people outside of the organization perceive it, and how they might get that judgment wrong,” Lees says. “It didn’t take me long to realize how that sort of judgment applies in other contexts.” He teamed up with... View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding

02 Jun 2010
First Look

First Look: June 2

stick with practicing medicine. This essay argues that physicians currently in practice could be equipped over time with the management skill necessary to develop and implement new models of primary care. A Choice Prediction Competition... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

27 Jan 2016
Research & Ideas

A Politician's Investment Portfolio Might Tip Off Corruption Potential

result of circumstance and situation. Minor disagrees. “That’s the distinction I was trying to make here--that it is some type of individual characteristic that will predict not only productivity and some of these other behaviors, but... View Details

Keywords: by Roberta Holland

Article

The Allure of Unknown Outcomes: Exploring the Role of Uncertainty in the Preference for Potential

By: Daniella Kupor, Zakary L. Tormala and Michael I. Norton

Influence practitioners often highlight a target's achievements (e.g., "she is the city's top-rated chef"), but recent research reveals that highlighting a target's potential (e.g., "she could become the city's top-rated chef") can be more effective. We examine whether... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation

Read Now

fall 2007
Article

Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts

By: Vishal Gaur, Saravanan Kesavan, Ananth Raman and Marshall L. Fisher

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Judgments; Forecasting and Prediction

01 Jan 1977
Conference Presentation

Short Term Natural Gas Consumption Forecasts: Optimal Use of National Weather Service Data

By: James K. Sebenius and Richard Lehman

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Research; Business and Government Relations; Energy Industry

1989
Chapter

The Future Evolution of the Central Office Switching Industry

By: Jerry A. Hausman and Elon Kohlberg

Keywords: Innovation and Invention; Communication Technology; Forecasting and Prediction; Telecommunications Industry

2003
Article

Confirming Management Earnings Forecasts, Earnings Uncertainty, and Stock Returns

By: Michael B. Clement, Richard Frankel and Jeffrey Miller

In this study we examine the association among confirming management forecasts, stock prices, and analyst expectations. Confirming management forecasts are voluntary disclosures by management that corroborate existing market expectations about future earnings. This... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Corporate Disclosure; Price; Stocks; Investment Return

May 2021
Case

Roku 2021

By: David B. Yoffie and Daniel Fisher

This case is used to explore the strategic concept of "look forward, reason back." Roku in 2021 is trying to figure out the future of television and streaming media. Students are asked to provide a vision for television and streaming media (that is, Look Forward) by... View Details

Keywords: Television Entertainment; Forecasting and Prediction; Decision Choices and Conditions; Strategy; Strategic Planning; Media and Broadcasting Industry

Educators