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Article

Earnings Dynamics and Measurement Error in Matched Survey and Administrative Data

By: Dean Hyslop and Wilbur Townsend

This article analyzes earnings dynamics and measurement error using a matched longitudinal sample of individuals’ survey and administrative earnings. In line with previous literature, the reported differences are characterized by both persistent and transitory factors.... View Details

Keywords: Earnings Dynamics; Measurement Error; Panel Data; Validation Study; Business Earnings; Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction

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Article

Scenario Generation for Long Run Interest Rate Risk Assessment

By: Robert F. Engle, Guillaume Roussellet and Emil N. Siriwardane

We propose a statistical model of the term structure of U.S. treasury yields tailored for long-term probability-based scenario generation and forecasts. Our model is easy to estimate and is able to simultaneously reproduce the positivity, persistence, and factor... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting; Stress Testing; Interest Rates; Forecasting and Prediction; Risk Management; United States

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Article

On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part II: Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills

By: Robert C. Merton and Roy D. Henriksson

Keywords: Investment; Performance; Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction

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12 Dec 2019
Research & Ideas

How to Turn Down the Boil on Group Conflict

organizations predict how people outside of the organization perceive it, and how they might get that judgment wrong,” Lees says. “It didn’t take me long to realize how that sort of judgment applies in other contexts.” He teamed up with... View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding

2015
Working Paper

The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications

By: Emil Siriwardane

I analyze a rare disasters economy that yields a measure of the risk neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster, p*t. A large panel of options data provides strong evidence that p*t is the single factor driving option-implied jump risk measures in the cross... View Details

Keywords: Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics

2013
Article

Boardroom Centrality and Firm Performance

By: David F. Larcker, Eric C. So and Charles C.Y. Wang

Firms with central or well-connected boards of directors earn superior risk-adjusted stock returns. Initiating a long position in the most central firms and a short position in the least central firms earns an average risk-adjusted return of 4.68% per year. Firms with... View Details

Keywords: Networks; Governing and Advisory Boards; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance

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June 2009 (Revised March 2010)
Supplement

Hansson Private Label, Inc.: Evaluating an Investment in Expansion, Student Spreadsheet (Brief Case)

By: Erik Stafford and Joel L. Heilprin

Keywords: Present Value; Forecasting; Expansion; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Budgeting

1997
Chapter

On the Dynamics of Forecasting in Technologically Complex Environments: The Unexpectedly Long Old Age of Optical Lithography

By: Rebecca M. Henderson

Keywords: History; Information Technology; Situation or Environment; Complexity; Forecasting and Prediction; Technology Industry

April 2008
Tutorial

Finance: An Introductory Online Course

By: Timothy A. Luehrman, Brenda W. Chia and Michelle Rendall

The Finance Online Course provides a fundamental understanding of the principles, analytical tools, and knowledge needed to make good investment and financing decisions. The course introduces students to finance ratios, forecasting methods, capital structure theory,... View Details

Keywords: Financial Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Corporate Finance

June 2013
Teaching Note

Bonne Chance

By: Jim Sharpe and Ian Cornell

This is a teaching note related to HBS Case 813049. View Details

Keywords: Turnaround; Turnarounds; Bankruptcy; Bankruptcy Reorganization; Cash Flow; Cash; Forecasting; Bank Debt; Distressed Debt; Forecasting and Prediction; Entrepreneurship; Retail Industry; United States

January 1977 (Revised July 1985)
Case

Perkin-Elmer Instrument Division: Plans and Forecasts (Revised)

By: Steven C. Wheelwright

Keywords: Planning; Forecasting and Prediction

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Leonard Abramson

Abramson accurately predicted the need for prepaid medical plans to manage spiraling medical spending in the 60’s and 70’s and founded U. S. Healthcare to capitalize on this opportunity. Abramson built a fast-growing and extremely... View Details

Keywords: Healthcare

01 Sep 2016
News

Clay Christensen on Competing Against Luck

for readers? I hope readers will say to themselves, “Oh my gosh, I can predict whether this product is going to be successful in the market. It actually is not a crapshoot.” And if the theory helps you View Details

2010
Working Paper

Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

By: Eric Van den Steen

This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Game Theory; Forecasting and Prediction

June 1998
Supplement

MBA Integrative Exercise: General Management, April 1998

By: Carin-Isabel Knoop

Drummond Paris, Regional Pharma Head, Asia/Pacific Novartis AG, discusses the company situation in Indonesia: joint ventures, budget, keeping track, and the prognosis for the future. View Details

Keywords: Business or Company Management; Joint Ventures; Forecasting and Prediction; Pharmaceutical Industry; Indonesia

Article

Political Forecasting as a Management Tool

By: James E. Austin and David Yoffie

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Government and Politics; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques

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09 Aug 2011
First Look

First Look: August 9

clients. We stated that even honest auditors were incapable of independence within the current regulatory framework. We document the failure to make sufficient changes to our institutions, highlight the barriers to needed changes, and challenge society to act before... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

2023
Working Paper

Evaluation and Learning in R&D Investment

By: Alexander P. Frankel, Joshua L. Krieger, Danielle Li and Dimitris Papanikolaou

We examine the role of spillover learning in shaping the value of exploratory versus incremental R&D. Using data from drug development, we show that novel drug candidates generate more knowledge spillovers than incremental ones. Despite being less likely to reach... View Details

Keywords: Research and Development; Forecasting and Prediction; Valuation; Pharmaceutical Industry

Article

Cultural Diversity on Wall Street: Evidence from Consensus Earnings Forecasts

By: Kenneth Merkley, Roni Michaely and Joseph Pacelli

We examine how cultural differences among agents influence the aggregate outcome of a common forecasting task. Using both exogenous shocks to sell-side analyst diversity and panel regression methods, we find that increases in analyst cultural diversity positively... View Details

Keywords: Culture; Forecasting; Sell-side Analysts; Information Aggregation; Diversity; Forecasting and Prediction; Information; Performance Improvement

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July 1981
Article

On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part I: An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts

By: Robert C. Merton

Keywords: Investment; Performance; Theory; Value; Forecasting and Prediction; Markets

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