Publications

February 2013
Article

Daily Horizons: Evidence of Narrow Bracketing in Judgments from 9,000 MBA Admission Interviews

By: U. Simonsohn and F. Gino

Many professionals, from auditors and lawyers, to clinical psychologists and journal editors, divide a continuous flow of judgments into subsets. College admissions interviewers, for instance, evaluate but a handful of applicants a day. We conjectured that in such... View Details

Keywords: Judgments; Forecasting and Prediction; Research

November 1990 (Revised August 1996)
Background Note

Sampling and Statistical Inference

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.

An introduction to sampling and statistical inference that covers the main concepts (confidence intervals, tests of statistical significance, choice of sample size) that are needed in making inferences about a population mean or percent. Includes discussion of problems... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics

June 1999
Article

Projections onto Efficient Frontiers: Theoretical and Computational Extensions to DEA

By: F. Frei and P. Harker

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction; Theory

May 1990
Background Note

Conjoint Analysis: A Manager's Guide

By: Robert J. Dolan

Presents a non-technical description of the conjoint analysis methodology. Discusses the process by which such a study is done and cites areas of application. View Details

Keywords: Marketing; Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction

01 Oct 1997
News

Theory & Practice

practices that will allow people to flourish - the key to organizational success. Do Lunch or Be Lunch by Howard H. Stevenson (Harvard Business School Press) According to HBS professor Howard Stevenson, most of human history and much of human behavior have been driven... View Details

February 2005
Article

Financial Analyst Characteristics and Herding Behavior in Forecasting

By: Michael B. Clement and Senyo Tse

This study classifies analysts' earnings forecasts as herding or bold and finds that (1) boldness likelihood increases with the analyst's prior accuracy, brokerage size, and experience and declines with the number of industries the analyst follows, consistent with... View Details

Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; Financial Services Industry

February 1997
Case

Arch Communications Group, Inc.

By: Krishna G. Palepu and Sarayu Srinivasan

The market values Arch differently from analysts' values. View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Framework; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Stocks

April 1998
Case

X-IT Products, LLC

By: Marco Iansiti, Myra M. Hart and Barbara Feinberg

Two entrepreneurs, Andrew Ive and Aldo DiBerlardino, are poised to launch their first product. The decisions they make will have a crucial impact on the future of their company. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Entrepreneurship; Product Launch; Outcome or Result

December 1995 (Revised March 1996)
Case

Nestle and the Twenty-First Century

By: Ray A. Goldberg and Elizabeth Ashcroft

A leading food company rethinks its future in the global food system by major geographical areas. View Details

Keywords: Change Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Geographic Location; Globalization; Strategy; System; Food and Beverage Industry

2013
Article

What Goes Up Must Come Down? Experimental Evidence on Intuitive Forecasting

By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, Andreas Fuster, David Laibson and Brigitte C. Madrian

Do laboratory subjects correctly perceive the dynamics of a mean-reverting time series? In our experiment, subjects receive historical data and make forecasts at different horizons. The time series process that we use features short-run momentum and long-run partial... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cognition and Thinking

Trained as an engineer, Sarnoff predicted that radio, and later, television, would transform the way people interacted with the world around them. Sarnoff lead RCA to become the leader in radio programming, offering services from news,... View Details

Keywords: Entertainment & Broadcast Media

Charles E. Merrill

the first established broker to predict the Great Crash of 1929 and the only one that liquidated his firm’s stock portfolio. At his death, his firm boasted 115 offices with 400,000 clients and had become the largest brokerage firm in the... View Details

Keywords: Finance

21 Jul 2020
Working Paper Summaries

Business Reopening Decisions and Demand Forecasts During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Keywords: by Dylan Balla-Elliott, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca, and Christopher Stanton

2011
Chapter

The Analyst Recommendation and Earnings Forecast Anomaly

By: George Serafeim

Keywords: Business Earnings; Forecasting and Prediction

November 2010 (Revised January 2011)
Teaching Note

Assessing a Company's Future Financial Health (TN)

By: Thomas R. Piper

Teaching Note for 911412. View Details

Keywords: Financial Condition; Forecasting and Prediction