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(2,894)
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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(2,894)
- News (481)
- Research (2,217)
- Events (43)
- Multimedia (16)
- Faculty Publications (1,434)
- 1998
- Book
Forecasting Methods and Applications
By: S. Makridakis, S. Wheelwright, R. Hyndman and Y. Chang
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
Makridakis, S., S. Wheelwright, R. Hyndman, and Y. Chang. Forecasting Methods and Applications. 3rd ed. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1998.
- January 1982 (Revised May 1983)
- Case
Unitrode Corp. (B): Short Term Forecasting and Major Procurements
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Unitrode Corp. (B): Short Term Forecasting and Major Procurements." Harvard Business School Case 182-179, January 1982. (Revised May 1983.)
- January 1982
- Case
Unitrode Corp. (C): Sales Forecasting of Major Procurements
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Unitrode Corp. (C): Sales Forecasting of Major Procurements." Harvard Business School Case 182-180, January 1982.
- January 1972
- Background Note
Note on Forecasting
By: Paul W. Marshall
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
Marshall, Paul W. "Note on Forecasting." Harvard Business School Background Note 172-218, January 1972.
- July 1985
- Background Note
Measuring Forecast Accuracy
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Measuring Forecast Accuracy." Harvard Business School Background Note 186-027, July 1985.
- Article
Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?
By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Robert L. Winkler
We consider two ways to aggregate expert opinions using simple averages: averaging probabilities and averaging quantiles. We examine analytical properties of these forecasts and compare their ability to harness the wisdom of the crowd. In terms of location, the two... View Details
Keywords: Probability Forecasts; Quantile Forecasts; Expert Combination; Linear Opinion Pooling; Forecasting and Prediction
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Robert L. Winkler. "Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?" Management Science 59, no. 7 (July 2013): 1594–1611.
- Article
The Wisdom of Competitive Crowds
By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Phillip E. Pfeifer
When several individuals are asked to forecast an uncertain quantity, they often face implicit or explicit incentives to be the most accurate. Despite the desire to elicit honest forecasts, such competition induces forecasters to report strategically and nontruthfully.... View Details
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Phillip E. Pfeifer. "The Wisdom of Competitive Crowds." Operations Research 61, no. 6 (November–December 2013): 1383–1398. (*Finalist in the Decision Analysis Society Publication Award, 2015.)
- October 1982
- Case
Data Resources, Inc.: The Tire-Production Forecast
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Data Resources, Inc.: The Tire-Production Forecast." Harvard Business School Case 183-096, October 1982.
- 1979
- Book
Energy: The Next Twenty Years
By: Robert B. Stobaugh
Stobaugh, Robert B. Energy: The Next Twenty Years. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing Company, 1979. (Report by a Study Group Sponsored by the Ford Foundation and Administered by Resources for the Future.)
- February 1982 (Revised June 1994)
- Case
Boston Gas Co.: Winter 1980-81
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Boston Gas Co.: Winter 1980-81." Harvard Business School Case 182-196, February 1982. (Revised June 1994.)
- December 1988 (Revised May 1989)
- Background Note
PROFORMA: An Aid for Analyzing Accounting Statements for the Purposes of Constructing Proformas and Forecasting
By: John E. Bishop
Bishop, John E. "PROFORMA: An Aid for Analyzing Accounting Statements for the Purposes of Constructing Proformas and Forecasting." Harvard Business School Background Note 189-108, December 1988. (Revised May 1989.)
- Article
Foreseeing Marketing
By: R. Deshpande
Deshpande, R. "Foreseeing Marketing." Journal of Marketing 63, no. 4 Special (October 1999): 164–167.
- January 1982 (Revised June 1983)
- Case
Unitrode Corp. (D): Longer-Range Forecasting and Planning
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Unitrode Corp. (D): Longer-Range Forecasting and Planning." Harvard Business School Case 182-181, January 1982. (Revised June 1983.)
- Article
Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem
By: Victor Richmond R. Jose, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
We introduce an alternative to the popular linear opinion pool for combining individual probability forecasts. One of the well-known problems with the linear opinion pool is that it can be poorly calibrated. It tends toward underconfidence as the crowd's diversity... View Details
Jose, Victor Richmond R., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl. "Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem." Management Science 60, no. 2 (February 2014): 463–475.
- 2016
- Working Paper
Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?
By: Jeffrey A. Frankel and Jesse Schreger
Government forecasts of GDP growth and budget balances are generally more over optimistic than private sector forecasts. When official forecasts are especially optimistic relative to private forecasts ex ante, they are more likely also to be over optimistic relative to... View Details
Frankel, Jeffrey A., and Jesse Schreger. "Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?" NBER Working Paper Series, No. 22349, June 2016.
- January 1978
- Background Note
Regression and Forecasting Using the AQD Package
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Regression and Forecasting Using the AQD Package." Harvard Business School Background Note 178-095, January 1978.
- 1979
- Book
Energy Future: Report of the Energy Project at the Harvard Business School
By: Robert B. Stobaugh and Daniel Yergin
Stobaugh, Robert B. and Daniel Yergin, eds. Energy Future: Report of the Energy Project at the Harvard Business School. New York: Random House, 1979. (1980, Ballantine Books; 1983, Vintage Books; also published in French, German, Japanese, Korean, Spanish; Bestseller list of NYT, Time Magazine, Publishers Weekly; for a report on this book, see front page NYT, July 12, 1979.)
- January 1982
- Case
New York Telephone Co.: The 1975 Revenue Forecast
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "New York Telephone Co.: The 1975 Revenue Forecast." Harvard Business School Case 182-060, January 1982.
- June 2013
- Teaching Note
Bonne Chance
By: Jim Sharpe and Ian Cornell
This is a teaching note related to HBS Case 813049. View Details
- January 1977 (Revised July 1985)
- Case
Perkin-Elmer Instrument Division: Plans and Forecasts (Revised)
Wheelwright, Steven C. "Perkin-Elmer Instrument Division: Plans and Forecasts (Revised)." Harvard Business School Case 677-150, January 1977. (Revised July 1985.)