Publications

2021
Working Paper

Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds

By: Mark Egan, Alexander J. MacKay and Hanbin Yang

We use a revealed-preference approach to estimate investor expectations of stock market returns. Using data on demand for index funds that follow the S&P 500, we develop and estimate a model of investor choice to flexibly recover the time-varying distribution of... View Details

Keywords: Stock Market Expectations; Demand Estimation; Exchange-traded Funds (ETFs); Demand and Consumers; Investment; United States

SSRN

March 2008
Course Overview Note

Dynamic Markets

By: Joshua D. Coval and Erik Stafford

The Dynamic Markets course at Harvard Business School is organized around the hands-on application of financial decision making in a wide variety of capital market settings. The course relies heavily on in-class simulations of a range of market settings where students... View Details

Keywords: Value Creation; Decision Making; Capital Markets; Competitive Strategy; Profit; Applications and Software; Information; Strategy; Price; Outcome or Result; Curriculum and Courses; Theory

2025
Working Paper

Government-Brokerage Analysts and Market Stabilization: Evidence from China

By: Sheng Cao, Xianjie He, Charles C.Y. Wang and Huifang Yin

We show analysts at government-controlled brokerage firms serve as a market stabilization tool in China. Using earnings forecasts from 2005–2019, we find government-brokerage analysts issue relatively more optimistic—yet less accurate and timely—forecasts during... View Details

Keywords: Sell-side Analysts; Forecast Optimism; Forecast Accuracy; Government Incentives; Market Stabilization; Government Ownership; Coordinated Economies; Stocks; Forecasting and Prediction; Business and Government Relations; Emerging Markets

SSRN

31 Mar 2018
Working Paper Summaries

Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach

Keywords: by Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle, and Charles C.Y. Wang; Financial Services; Accounting

May 2007 (Revised August 2007)
Case

Prediction Markets at Google

By: Peter A. Coles, Karim R. Lakhani and Andrew P. McAfee

In its eight quarters of operation, Google's internally developed prediction market has delivered accurate and decisive predictions about future events of interest to the company. Google must now determine how to increase participation in the market, and how to best... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Sharing; Knowledge Use and Leverage; Market Participation; Information Technology

December 2004
Article

Market Valuation and Merger Waves

By: Matthew Rhodes-Kropf and S. Viswanathan

Does valuation affect mergers? Data suggest that periods of stock merger activity are correlated with high market valuations. The naïve explanation that overvalued bidders wish to use stock is incomplete because targets should not be eager to accept stock. However, we... View Details

Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Valuation; Market Transactions; Value; Cash; Stocks; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Bids and Bidding; Market Design; Stock Shares; Accounting Audits; Performance Evaluation

03 Feb 2024
News

What Walmart’s New Focus on Employee Stock Means for the Labor Market and Average American Household

January 1993 (Revised August 2003)
Case

Sally Jameson: Valuing Stock Options in a Compensation Package

By: Peter Tufano

Details a thinly disguised situation faced by a recent Harvard MBA graduate who was forced by a prospective employer to place a dollar value on a grant of stock options. There are two objectives: 1) Serves as an introduction to option valuation, in which students have... View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Stock Options; Compensation and Benefits

Research Summary

Strategic participation of social movement organizations

Social movements and related social movement organizations (SMOs) play an important role in the formation of new industries and market niches, as well as the emergence of new organizational forms. I argue that as SMOs become more sophisticated and... View Details

October 2000
Article

The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

The share of equity issues in total new equity and debt issues is a strong predictor of U.S. stock market returns between 1928 and 1997. In particular, firms issue more equity than debt just before periods of low market returns. The equity share in new issues has... View Details

Keywords: Equity; Borrowing and Debt; Stocks; Markets; Debt Securities; Forecasting and Prediction; Accounting Industry; United States

Article

Risk and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

By: Mark Seasholes, Radu Burlacu, Patrice Fontaine and Sonia Jimenez-Garces

This paper mathematically transforms unobservable rational expectation equilibrium model parameters (information precision and supply uncertainty) into a single variable that is correlated with expected returns and that can be estimated with recently observed data. Our... View Details

Keywords: Risk Premiums; Cross-sectional Asset Pricing; REE Models; Risk and Uncertainty; Asset Pricing; Investment Return

18 Jun 2014
News

Winning An Insiders' Game In Stocks

Keywords: Securities, Commodities, and Other Financial Investments; Finance

December 2000
Background Note

Online Market Makers

By: Thomas R. Eisenmann and Chris Hackett

Describes the business model for online market makers, firms that use the Internet to organize a marketplace, providing participants with a virtual "place" to trade, rules to govern their exchanges, and infrastructure to support trading. First it proposes a definition... View Details

Keywords: Business Model; Web Services Industry

February 2010
Supplement

Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Market Size and Market Share Analysis (CW)

By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Jill Avery

This Excel worksheet contains sample problems, prebuilt Excel models to run market sizing and market share analyses, and charts and graphs which help visualize the results. It is designed to accompany Marketing Analysis Tookit: Market Size and Market Share Analysis.... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Marketing Strategy; Decisions; Strategic Planning; Market Participation; Sales; Forecasting and Prediction; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques

September 2023
Article

Stock Price Reactions to ESG News: The Role of ESG Ratings and Disagreement

By: George Serafeim and Aaron Yoon

We investigate whether ESG ratings predict future ESG news and the associated market reactions. We find that the consensus rating predicts future news, but its predictive ability diminishes for firms with large disagreement between raters. Relation between news and... View Details

SSRN

February 2011 (Revised June 2011)
Case

Stock Reform of Shenzhen Development Bank

By: Li Jin, Li Liao, Aldo Sesia and Jianyi Wu

Shenzhen Development Bank, China's first publicly traded company, was undergoing the non-tradable share reform. Its current controlling shareholder, private equity firm Newbridge Capital LLC, needs to negotiate with its diverse minority shareholders to find a... View Details

Keywords: Capital; Private Equity; Investment; Corporate Governance; Managerial Roles; Emerging Markets; Negotiation; Business and Shareholder Relations; Conflict of Interests; Banking Industry; China