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- Faculty Publications (179)
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- 2011
- Working Paper
Do Powerful Politicians Cause Corporate Downsizing?
By: Lauren H. Cohen, Joshua D. Coval and Christopher J. Malloy
This paper employs a new empirical approach for identifying the impact of government spending on the private sector. Our key innovation is to use changes in congressional committee chairmanship as a source of exogenous variation in state-level federal expenditures. In... View Details
- 2012
- Working Paper
Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns
By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
We show that the credit quality of corporate debt issuers deteriorates during credit booms, and that this deterioration forecasts low excess returns to corporate bondholders. The key insight is that changes in the pricing of credit risk disproportionately affect the... View Details
- December 2010
- Article
Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race
By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
The main arguments in favor of and against nominal and indexed debt are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium... View Details
- September 2010
- Article
How Firms Respond to Being Rated
By: Aaron K. Chatterji and Michael W. Toffel
While many rating systems seek to help buyers overcome information asymmetries when making purchasing decisions, we investigate how these ratings also influence the companies being rated. We hypothesize that ratings are particularly likely to spur responses from firms... View Details
- 2014
- Working Paper
Financing Risk and Innovation
By: Ramana Nanda and Matthew Rhodes-Kropf
We provide a model of investment into new ventures that demonstrates why some places, times, and industries should be associated with a greater degree of experimentation by investors. Investors respond to financing risk―a forecast of limited future funding―by modifying... View Details
- June 2010
- Article
A Gap-Filling Theory of Corporate Debt Maturity Choice
By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Jeremy C. Stein
We argue that time-series variation in the maturity of aggregate corporate debt issues arises because firms behave as macro liquidity providers, absorbing the large supply shocks associated with changes in the maturity structure of government debt. We document that... View Details
- May 2010
- Article
Loan Syndication and Credit Cycles
By: Victoria Ivashina and David Scharfstein
Cyclicality in the supply of business credit has been the focus of a considerable amount of research. This cyclicality can stem from shocks to borrowers' collateral, which affect firms' ability to raise capital if agency and information problems are significant (Ben S.... View Details
- 2010
- Working Paper
The Economic Crisis and Medical Care Usage
By: Annamaria Lusardi, Daniel Schneider and Peter Tufano
We use a unique, nationally representative cross-national dataset to document the reduction in individuals' usage of routine non-emergency medical care in the midst of the economic crisis. A substantially larger fraction of Americans have reduced medical care than have... View Details
Keywords: Financial Crisis; Health Care and Treatment; France; Germany; Great Britain; Canada; United States
- 2010
- Chapter
Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability: A New Framework
By: Dale F. Gray, Robert C. Merton and Zvi Bodie
This paper proposes a new approach to improve the way central banks can analyze and manage the financial risks of a national economy. It is based on the modern theory and practice of contingent claims analysis (CCA), which is successfully used today at the level of... View Details
- 2010
- Chapter
Understanding and Coping with the Increasing Risk of System-Level Accidents
By: Dutch Leonard and Arnold M. Howitt
The world has seen a number of recent events in which major systems came to a standstill, not from one cause alone but from the interaction of a combination of causes. System-level accidents occur when anomalies or errors in different parts of an interconnected system... View Details
- October 2008 (Revised January 2010)
- Case
Airbus A380—Turbulence Ahead
By: Ananth Raman, William Schmidt and Vishal Gaur
Multiple delays of the Airbus A380 have shocked analysts and investors alike. What are the causes of these delays and how should investors respond to the signals they may be sending about the company's outlook? View Details
- July 2008
- Article
Crime and Punishment in the 'American Dream'
By: Rafael Di Tella and Juan Dubra
We observe that countries where belief in the "American dream" (i.e., effort pays) prevails also set harsher punishment for criminals. We know that beliefs are also correlated with several features of the economic system (taxation, social insurance, etc). Our objective... View Details
- June 2008
- Article
'Thar' She Blows: Can Bubbles Be Rekindled with Experienced Subjects?
By: Reshmaan Hussam, David Porter and Vernon Smith
We report 28 new experiment sessions consisting of up to three experience levels to examine the robustness of learning and “error” elimination among participants in a laboratory asset market and its effect on price bubbles. Our answer to the title question is: “yes.”... View Details
- April 2008 (Revised December 2008)
- Case
Leveraged Loans 2007
By: Andre F. Perold and Erik Stafford
The leveraged loan market was in a crisis during the summer of 2007, following many years of low realized volatility (less than 4% per annum), an index of leveraged loans had fallen over 5% in the month of July. A sudden drop in capital market prices for an asset class... View Details
- May 2008
- Article
Excess Comovement of Stock Returns: Evidence from Cross-sectional Variation in Nikkei 225 Weights
By: Robin Greenwood
In the presence of limits to arbitrage, cross-sectional variation in periodic investor demand should be related to the degree of comovement of returns. I exploit the unusual weighting system of the Nikkei 225 index in Japan to identify cross-sectional variation in... View Details
Keywords: Stocks; Investment; Investment Return; Market Transactions; Weight; Performance Expectations; Behavior; Japan
- December 2007 (Revised September 2009)
- Case
Wall Street's First Panic (A)
By: David A. Moss and Cole Bolton
In the early 1790s, a flood of newly issued public and private securities sparked an investment boom in the nascent United States. In New York, the bustling commercial district along Wall Street emerged as the center of the city's securities trade. One of the many... View Details
- December 2006
- Article
Europe vs America: Institutional Hysteresis in a Simple Normative Model
By: Rafael Di Tella and Robert MacCulloch
We show how the differences in US and European institutions can arise in a normative model. The paper focuses on the labor market and the government's decision to set unemployment benefits in response to an unemployment shock. The government balances insurance... View Details
- November 2006
- Case
Organics: Coming Center Stage?
By: James E. Austin and Reed Martin
The organics movement has certainly come a long way. From hippie farming communes and a scattering of natural food stores in the 1960s, organics outgrew its origins as a counterculture curiosity of the 1970s to become the fastest growing segment of the food industry in... View Details
- March 2005
- Article
Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage
By: Robin Greenwood
I develop a framework to analyze demand curves for multiple risky securities at extended horizons in a setting with limits-to-arbitrage. Following an unexpected change in uninformed investor demand for several assets, I predict returns of each security to be... View Details
- 2005
- Working Paper
Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race
By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
The main arguments in favor of and against nominal and indexed debt are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium... View Details