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Publications

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    • Faculty Publications  (188)

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    • All HBS Web  (1,127)
      • Faculty Publications  (188)

      Lay Decision TheoryRemove Lay Decision Theory →

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      • August 2006
      • Article

      Investor Sentiment and the Cross Section of Stock Returns

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
      We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by... View Details
      Keywords: Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction; Motivation and Incentives; Risk and Uncertainty; Volatility
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross Section of Stock Returns." Journal of Finance 61, no. 4 (August 2006): 1645–1680.
      • 2006
      • Chapter

      A Decision Perspective on Organizations: Social Cognition, Behavioral Decision Theory and the Psychological Links to Micro and Macro Organizational Behaviour

      By: M. A. Neale, A. E. Tenbrunsel, T. Galvin and M. H. Bazerman
      Keywords: Decision Making; Perspective; Behavior; Cognition and Thinking; Organizations; Mathematical Methods
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      Neale, M. A., A. E. Tenbrunsel, T. Galvin, and M. H. Bazerman. "A Decision Perspective on Organizations: Social Cognition, Behavioral Decision Theory and the Psychological Links to Micro and Macro Organizational Behaviour." In The SAGE Handbook of Organization Studies. 2nd ed. Edited by Stewart R. Clegg, Cynthia Hardy, Thomas Lawrence, and Walter Nord. Sage Publications, 2006.
      • April 2006
      • Module Note

      Asset Allocation: A Half-Course Module Note

      By: Luis M. Viceira
      Provides an overview of the main ideas and structure of a 15-session module on long-term asset allocation designed for MBA graduate students and investment professionals. This module is taught as part of a full-length, 30-session elective class on investment management... View Details
      Keywords: Asset Management; Investment; Decisions; Management; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Teaching; Theory
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      Viceira, Luis M. "Asset Allocation: A Half-Course Module Note." Harvard Business School Module Note 206-133, April 2006.
      • April 2006
      • Teaching Note

      The Capital Structure Decision - Underlying Theory (TN)

      By: William E. Fruhan Jr.
      Keywords: Capital Structure
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      Fruhan, William E., Jr. "The Capital Structure Decision - Underlying Theory (TN)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 206-136, April 2006.
      • January 2006
      • Article

      Lay Theories about Racists: What Constitutes Racism (and What Doesn't).

      By: Samuel R. Sommers and Michael I. Norton
      Keywords: Theory; Attitudes
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      Sommers, Samuel R., and Michael I. Norton. "Lay Theories about Racists: What Constitutes Racism (and What Doesn't)." Group Processes & Intergroup Relations 9, no. 1 (January 2006): 117–138.
      • 2006
      • Conference Paper

      Modeling Repeated Play of the Prisoners' Dilemma with Reinforcement Learning over an Enriched Strategy Set

      By: A. E. Roth and Ido Erev
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Strategy; Game Theory; Learning
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      Roth, A. E., and Ido Erev. "Modeling Repeated Play of the Prisoners' Dilemma with Reinforcement Learning over an Enriched Strategy Set." 2006. (Presented at the Dahlem Workshop on Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox.)
      • 2006
      • Working Paper

      The Limits of Authority: Motivation versus Coordination

      By: Eric J. Van den Steen

      This paper studies the effects of open disagreement on motivation and coordination. It shows how, in the presence of differing priors, motivation and coordination impose conflicting demands on the allocation of authority, leading to a trade-off between the... View Details

      Keywords: Decisions; Governance Controls; Organizational Culture; Agency Theory; Conflict and Resolution; Motivation and Incentives
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      Van den Steen, Eric J. "The Limits of Authority: Motivation versus Coordination." Sloan School of Management Working Paper, No. 4626-06, January 2006. (Available at SSRN.)
      • 2005
      • Working Paper

      Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
      We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by studying... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Return; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Theory; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns." NBER Working Paper Series, No. w10449, April 2005. (First draft in 2003.)
      • March 2005
      • Article

      Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage

      By: Robin Greenwood
      I develop a framework to analyze demand curves for multiple risky securities at extended horizons in a setting with limits-to-arbitrage. Following an unexpected change in uninformed investor demand for several assets, I predict returns of each security to be... View Details
      Keywords: Limits To Arbitrage; Event Studies; Demand Curves; Portfolio Choice; Framework; Demand and Consumers; Change; Risk and Uncertainty; Debt Securities; Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Assets; Investment Portfolio; System Shocks; Price; Japan
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      Greenwood, Robin. "Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage." Journal of Financial Economics 75, no. 3 (March 2005): 607–649.
      • February 2005 (Revised November 2016)
      • Background Note

      Forecasting the Adoption of a New Product

      By: Elie Ofek
      Provides tools and methodologies that allow forecasting demand for innovative new products. Highlights the Bass model—the theory behind it and ways to determine its parameters. Provides a detailed example of how to use the Bass model to forecast demand for satellite... View Details
      Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Mathematical Methods; Competition
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      Ofek, Elie. "Forecasting the Adoption of a New Product." Harvard Business School Background Note 505-062, February 2005. (Revised November 2016.)
      • September 2004
      • Article

      Trust in Agency

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell
      Existing models of the principal-agent relationship assume the agent works only under extrinsic incentives. However, many observed agency contracts take the form of a fixed payment. For such contracts to succeed, the principal must trust the agent to work in the... View Details
      Keywords: Trust; Agency Theory; Relationships; Behavior; Motivation and Incentives; Contracts; Business Model; Emotions; Forecasting and Prediction; Ethics; Standards; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon. "Trust in Agency." Journal of Economics & Management Strategy 13, no. 3 (September 2004): 375–404.
      • June 2004
      • Article

      A Catering Theory of Dividends

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
      We propose that the decision to pay dividends is driven by prevailing investor demand for dividend payers. Managers cater to investors by paying dividends when investors put a stock price premium on payers, and by not paying when investors prefer nonpayers. To test... View Details
      Keywords: Dividends; Catering; Financial Instruments; Investment Return; Business and Shareholder Relations
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "A Catering Theory of Dividends." Journal of Finance 59, no. 3 (June 2004): 1125–1165.
      • February 2004 (Revised April 2005)
      • Exercise

      Necessary Evils: A Diagnostic Exercise

      By: Joshua D. Margolis and Andrew Molinsky
      Central to the work of leaders and professionals are tasks that entail harming one party to deliver benefits or advance valued and worthy goals. Sometimes a person must, as part of his or her job, perform an act that causes emotional, material, or physical harm to... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Leadership; Problems and Challenges; Ethics; Management Skills
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      Margolis, Joshua D., and Andrew Molinsky. "Necessary Evils: A Diagnostic Exercise." Harvard Business School Exercise 404-027, February 2004. (Revised April 2005.)
      • October 2003 (Revised April 2006)
      • Background Note

      Moral Reasoning: A Practical Guide for Leaders

      By: Sandra J. Sucher
      We encounter moral or ethical challenges in our professional lives, in our close relationships, and as members of the broader communities that we are part of. This methodology demonstrates how moral reasoning works and how it can be integrated into a problem-solving... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Making; Moral Sensibility; Management Systems; Problems and Challenges; Civil Society or Community
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      Sucher, Sandra J. "Moral Reasoning: A Practical Guide for Leaders." Harvard Business School Background Note 604-054, October 2003. (Revised April 2006.)
      • 2003
      • Other Unpublished Work

      Compensatory Transfers in Two-Player Decision Problems

      By: Jerry R. Green
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Game Theory
      Citation
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      Green, Jerry R. "Compensatory Transfers in Two-Player Decision Problems." February 2003.
      • 2002
      • Other Unpublished Work

      Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator

      By: Malcolm Baker and Jeremy Stein
      We build a model that helps to explain why increases in liquidity—such as lower bid–ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher turnover—predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational... View Details
      Keywords: Price; Financial Liquidity; Trade; Valuation; Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Equity; Stock Shares; Investment Return
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Jeremy Stein. "Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator." NBER Working Paper Series, 2002. (First draft in 2001.)
      • May 2000
      • Article

      Maxmin Expected Utility over Savage Acts with a Set of Priors

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell, Peter Klibanoff and Emre Ozdenoren
      This paper provides an axiomatic foundation for a maxmin expected utility over a set of priors (MMEU) decision rule in an environment where the elements of choice are Savage acts. This characterization complements the original axiomatizations of MMEU developed in a... View Details
      Keywords: Uncertainty Aversion; Ambiguity; Expected Utility; Set Of Priors; Knightian Uncertainty; Decision Making; Game Theory; Risk and Uncertainty; Mathematical Methods
      Citation
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon, Peter Klibanoff, and Emre Ozdenoren. "Maxmin Expected Utility over Savage Acts with a Set of Priors." Journal of Economic Theory 92, no. 1 (May 2000): 35–65.
      • June 1999
      • Article

      Projections onto Efficient Frontiers: Theoretical and Computational Extensions to DEA

      By: F. Frei and P. Harker
      Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction; Theory
      Citation
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      Frei, F., and P. Harker. "Projections onto Efficient Frontiers: Theoretical and Computational Extensions to DEA." Journal of Productivity Analysis 11, no. 3 (June 1999): 275–300.
      • January 1999 (Revised July 2003)
      • Case

      Shady Trail

      By: Arthur I Segel
      Holt Lunsford was intrigued by the packet of papers that lay in front of him. The papers comprised a brochure that Lonestar Bank had put together in an effort to sell the Shady Trail Distribution Center in Dallas, Texas. Shady Hill was a five-year-old,... View Details
      Keywords: Investment; Acquisition; Buildings and Facilities; Property; Partners and Partnerships; Decision Choices and Conditions; Distribution Industry; Real Estate Industry; Texas
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      Segel, Arthur I. "Shady Trail." Harvard Business School Case 899-143, January 1999. (Revised July 2003.)
      • July 1998
      • Teaching Note

      Hawthorne Plastics, Inc. TN

      By: Paul W. Marshall, John S. Hammond and William L Berry
      Teaching Note for (9-171-004). View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Production; Cost; Quality; Theory; Management Practices and Processes; Decisions
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      Marshall, Paul W., John S. Hammond, and William L Berry. "Hawthorne Plastics, Inc. TN." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 399-004, July 1998.
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