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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(1,291)
- News (115)
- Research (1,048)
- Events (3)
- Multimedia (6)
- Faculty Publications (802)
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- Article
On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part II: Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills
By: Robert C. Merton and Roy D. Henriksson
Merton, Robert C., and Roy D. Henriksson. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part II: Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills." Journal of Business 54, no. 4 (October 1981): 513–533.
- August 2010
- Case
Flash Memory, Inc.
By: William E. Fruhan and Craig Stephenson
The CFO of Flash Memory, Inc. prepares the company's investing and financing plans for the next three years. Flash Memory is a small firm that specializes in the design and manufacture of solid state drives (SSDs) and memory modules for the computer and electronics... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting; Financial Management; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Budgeting; Computer Industry; Electronics Industry; United States
Fruhan, William E., and Craig Stephenson. "Flash Memory, Inc." Harvard Business School Brief Case 104-230, August 2010.
- Article
Scenario Generation for Long Run Interest Rate Risk Assessment
By: Robert F. Engle, Guillaume Roussellet and Emil N. Siriwardane
We propose a statistical model of the term structure of U.S. treasury yields tailored for long-term probability-based scenario generation and forecasts. Our model is easy to estimate and is able to simultaneously reproduce the positivity, persistence, and factor... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting; Stress Testing; Interest Rates; Forecasting and Prediction; Risk Management; United States
Engle, Robert F., Guillaume Roussellet, and Emil N. Siriwardane. "Scenario Generation for Long Run Interest Rate Risk Assessment." Special Issue on Theoretical and Financial Econometrics: Essays in Honor of C. Gourieroux. Journal of Econometrics 201, no. 2 (December 2017): 333–347.
- July 1981
- Article
On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part I: An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts
By: Robert C. Merton
Merton, Robert C. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance Part I: An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts." Journal of Business 54, no. 3 (July 1981): 363–406.
- December 1988 (Revised May 1989)
- Background Note
PROFORMA: An Aid for Analyzing Accounting Statements for the Purposes of Constructing Proformas and Forecasting
By: John E. Bishop
Bishop, John E. "PROFORMA: An Aid for Analyzing Accounting Statements for the Purposes of Constructing Proformas and Forecasting." Harvard Business School Background Note 189-108, December 1988. (Revised May 1989.)
- August 2010
- Supplement
Flash Memory, Inc., Faculty Spreadsheet Supplement (Brief Case)
By: William E. Fruhan Jr. and Craig Stephenson
- April 2010
- Case
Jones Electrical Distribution
By: Thomas R. Piper and Jeffrey DeVolder
Jones Electrical Distribution is faced with a need for increased bank financing due to its rapid sales growth. Students must determine the reasons for the rising bank borrowing, estimate the amount of borrowing needed and assess the attractiveness of the loan to the... View Details
Keywords: Financial Analysis; Forecasting; Financing; Bank Loans; Growth Management; Cash Flow; Financing and Loans; Forecasting and Prediction; Distribution Industry
Piper, Thomas R., and Jeffrey DeVolder. "Jones Electrical Distribution." Harvard Business School Brief Case 104-179, April 2010.
- October 2014 (Revised August 2018)
- Case
Caesars Entertainment
By: Janice H. Hammond and Aldo Sesia
This case describes the introduction of a regression analysis model for forecasting guest arrivals to Caesars Palace hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada. The company will use the forecast to staff the front desk in the hotel. The staff is unionized and the company has little... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting; Staffing; Gaming; Gaming Industry; Hotel Industry; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Human Resources; Selection and Staffing; Entertainment; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Operations; Service Delivery; Service Operations; Accommodations Industry; Travel Industry; Tourism Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Las Vegas
Hammond, Janice H., and Aldo Sesia. "Caesars Entertainment." Harvard Business School Case 615-031, October 2014. (Revised August 2018.)
- Article
End the Mythmaking and Return to True Analysis
By: Joseph B. Fuller
Fuller, Joseph B. "End the Mythmaking and Return to True Analysis." Financial Times (January 22, 2002).
- December 2023
- Article
Brokerage Relationships and Analyst Forecasts: Evidence from the Protocol for Broker Recruiting
By: Braiden Coleman, Michael Drake, Joseph Pacelli and Brady Twedt
In this study, we offer novel evidence on how the nature of brokerage-client relationships can influence the quality of equity research. We exploit a unique setting provided by the Protocol for Broker Recruiting to examine whether relaxed broker non-compete agreement... View Details
Keywords: Brokers; Analysts; Forecasts; Bias; Protocol; Investment; Research; Forecasting and Prediction
Coleman, Braiden, Michael Drake, Joseph Pacelli, and Brady Twedt. "Brokerage Relationships and Analyst Forecasts: Evidence from the Protocol for Broker Recruiting." Review of Accounting Studies 28, no. 4 (December 2023): 2075–2103.
- 1997
- Chapter
On the Dynamics of Forecasting in Technologically Complex Environments: The Unexpectedly Long Old Age of Optical Lithography
Keywords: History; Information Technology; Situation or Environment; Complexity; Forecasting and Prediction; Technology Industry
Henderson, Rebecca M. "On the Dynamics of Forecasting in Technologically Complex Environments: The Unexpectedly Long Old Age of Optical Lithography." In Technological Innovation: Oversights and Foresights, edited by Raghu Garud, Praveen Rattan Nayyar, and Zur Baruch Shapira. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997.
- September 2010
- Teaching Note
New Heritage Doll Company (Brief Case)
By: Timothy A. Luehrman and Heide Abelli
Teaching Note for 4212. View Details
- June 2009 (Revised March 2010)
- Supplement
Hansson Private Label, Inc.: Evaluating an Investment in Expansion, Student Spreadsheet (Brief Case)
By: Erik Stafford and Joel L. Heilprin
- September 2010
- Case
New Heritage Doll Company
By: Timothy A. Luehrman and Heide Abelli
A manufacturer and retailer of specialty doll products must decide which of two projects to fund. The decision requires the student to compute cash flows for the 2 projects, discount values to the present and compare and contrast different project performance measures. View Details
Keywords: Forecasting; Resource Management; Resource Allocation; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Budgeting; Manufacturing Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Retail Industry
Luehrman, Timothy A., and Heide Abelli. "New Heritage Doll Company." Harvard Business School Brief Case 104-212, September 2010.
- June 18, 2014
- Blog Post
How to Kill Quarterly Earnings Guidance
By: Gabriel Karageorgiou, Daniela Saltzman and George Serafeim
Karageorgiou, Gabriel, Daniela Saltzman, and George Serafeim. "How to Kill Quarterly Earnings Guidance." HBR Blog Network (June 18, 2014). http://blogs.hbr.org/2014/06/how-to-kill-quarterly-earnings-guidance/.
- 2018
- Working Paper
Algorithm Appreciation: People Prefer Algorithmic to Human Judgment
By: Jennifer M. Logg, Julia A. Minson and Don A. Moore
Even though computational algorithms often outperform human judgment, received wisdom suggests that people may be skeptical of relying on them (Dawes, 1979). Counter to this notion, results from six experiments show that lay people adhere more to advice when they think... View Details
Keywords: Algorithms; Accuracy; Advice Taking; Forecasting; Theory Of Machine; Mathematical Methods; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Trust
Logg, Jennifer M., Julia A. Minson, and Don A. Moore. "Algorithm Appreciation: People Prefer Algorithmic to Human Judgment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 17-086, March 2017. (Revised April 2018.)
- 2018
- Working Paper
Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts: When Is It Appropriate to Extremize or Anti-Extremize?
By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Victor Richmond R. Jose and Robert L. Winkler
Many organizations face critical decisions that rely on forecasts of binary events. In these situations, organizations often gather forecasts from multiple experts or models and average those forecasts to produce a single aggregate forecast. Because the average... View Details
Keywords: Forecast Aggregation; Linear Opinion Pool; Generalized Additive Model; Generalized Linear Model; Stacking.; Forecasting and Prediction
Lichtendahl, Kenneth C., Jr., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Victor Richmond R. Jose, and Robert L. Winkler. "Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts: When Is It Appropriate to Extremize or Anti-Extremize?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 19-041, October 2018.
- February 2019
- Case
Miroglio Fashion (A)
By: Sunil Gupta and David Lane
Francesco Cavarero, chief information officer of Miroglio Fashion, Italy’s third-largest retailer of women’s apparel, was trying to bring analytical rigor to the company’s forecasting and inventory management decisions. But fashion is inherently hard to predict. Can... View Details
Keywords: Inventory Management; Demand Forecasting; Artificial Intelligence; Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Operations; Management; Decision Making; AI and Machine Learning; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Fashion Industry
Gupta, Sunil, and David Lane. "Miroglio Fashion (A)." Harvard Business School Case 519-053, February 2019.
- September 2010
- Supplement
New Heritage Doll Company, Faculty Spreadsheet Supplement (Brief Case)
By: Timothy A. Luehrman and Heide Abelli
- Article
Can Analysts Assess Fundamental Risk and Valuation Uncertainty? An Empirical Analysis of Scenario-Based Value Estimates
By: Peter R. Joos, Joseph D. Piotroski and Suraj Srinivasan
We use a dataset of sell-side analysts' scenario-based valuation estimates to examine whether analysts reliably assess the risk surrounding a firm's fundamental value. We find that the spread in analysts' state-side contingent valuations captures the riskiness of... View Details
Keywords: Analyst Forecasts; Scenarios; Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction
Joos, Peter R., Joseph D. Piotroski, and Suraj Srinivasan. "Can Analysts Assess Fundamental Risk and Valuation Uncertainty? An Empirical Analysis of Scenario-Based Value Estimates." Journal of Financial Economics 121, no. 3 (September 2016): 645–663.