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      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time

      By: Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland and Peter K. Schott
      We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict U.S. stock returns, in real time. Parameter estimates indicate that an unanticipated doubling (halving) of projected infections forecasts next-day decreases (increases) in aggregate U.S.... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Stock Returns; Health Pandemics; Stocks; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Alfaro, Laura, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland, and Peter K. Schott. "Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 26950, April 2020. (Revised May 2020.)
      • March 2020
      • Supplement

      People Analytics at Teach For America (B)

      By: Jeffrey T. Polzer and Julia Kelley
      This is a supplement to the People Analytics at Teach For America (A) case. In this supplement, situated one year after the A case, Managing Director Michael Metzger must decide how to apply his team's predictive models generated from the previous year’s data. View Details
      Keywords: Analytics; Human Resource Management; Data; Workforce; Hiring; Talent Management; Forecasting; Predictive Analytics; Organizational Behavior; Recruiting; Analytics and Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Recruitment; Selection and Staffing; Talent and Talent Management
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      Polzer, Jeffrey T., and Julia Kelley. "People Analytics at Teach For America (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 420-086, March 2020.
      • December 2019
      • Case

      Forecasting ClimaCell

      By: Joshua Lev Krieger, Christopher Stanton and James Barnett
      A weather technology startup, ClimaCell considers the R&D trade-offs and financing implications of pursuing a proposed contract with a major automobile maker, rather than continuing its focus on building a scalable, all-purpose weather prediction engine. View Details
      Keywords: Weather; Forecasting and Prediction; Technological Innovation; Research and Development; Finance; Cost vs Benefits; Decision Making; Strategy
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      Krieger, Joshua Lev, Christopher Stanton, and James Barnett. "Forecasting ClimaCell." Harvard Business School Case 820-044, December 2019.
      • October 2019
      • Case

      GRIT Fitness

      By: Lynda M. Applegate and Olivia Hull
      In December 2018, GRIT Fitness was a growing chain of boutique fitness studios offering a variety of workout classes, including weightlifting, high intensity interval training, and cardio dance. With 400 members and three Dallas studios, CEO Brittani Rettig believed... View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Business Startups; Mission and Purpose; Corporate Strategy; Customer Focus and Relationships; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Plan; Trends; Experience and Expertise; Talent and Talent Management; Training; Health; Selection and Staffing; Leadership Style; Leadership Development; Management Style; Management Teams; Brands and Branding; Organizational Culture; Organizational Structure; Motivation and Incentives; Sports; Competition; Diversification; Expansion; Value Creation; Health Industry; Sports Industry; Texas
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      Applegate, Lynda M., and Olivia Hull. "GRIT Fitness." Harvard Business School Case 820-016, October 2019.
      • October 2019 (Revised August 2020)
      • Case

      Souqalmal: The Choice Is Yours (A)

      By: V.G. Narayanan and Alpana Thapar
      This case describes how Ambareen Musa, Founder and CEO of Souqalmal, a Dubai-based online comparison aggregator of banking and insurance products launched her business in 2011 and rapidly grew it over next couple of years. However, by 2017, the Mauritian entrepreneur... View Details
      Keywords: Unit Economics; Finance; Accounting; Competitive Strategy; Financial Statements; Insurance Industry; Middle East
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      Narayanan, V.G., and Alpana Thapar. "Souqalmal: The Choice Is Yours (A)." Harvard Business School Case 120-028, October 2019. (Revised August 2020.)
      • August 28, 2019
      • Article

      How to Make Your Sales Forecasts More Accurate

      By: Lou Shipley
      Companies need consistently accurate sales forecasts — but unfortunately they are rare. That’s because many companies fail to align their sales and marketing departments, and that alignment is a prerequisite for forecast accuracy. Companies can achieve better alignment... View Details
      Keywords: Sales; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing; Alignment; Technology
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      Shipley, Lou. "How to Make Your Sales Forecasts More Accurate." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (August 28, 2019).
      • July 2019
      • Case

      Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2019)

      By: John Gourville
      One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details
      Keywords: Diffusion Processes; Product Adoption; Marketing; Forecasting and Prediction; Demand and Consumers; Product; Adoption; Product Launch
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      Gourville, John. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2019)." Harvard Business School Case 520-012, July 2019.
      • July 2019
      • Teaching Note

      Miroglio Fashion

      By: Sunil Gupta
      Teaching Note for HBS Nos. 519-053, 519-070, and 519-072. View Details
      Keywords: Inventory Management; Demand Forecasting; Artificial Intelligence; Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Operations; Management; Decision Making; Marketing; AI and Machine Learning; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Fashion Industry
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      Gupta, Sunil. "Miroglio Fashion." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 520-007, July 2019.
      • May 2019
      • Supplement

      Ride-Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber's Growth

      By: E. Ofek, Eitan Muller and Barak Libai
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      Ofek, E., Eitan Muller, and Barak Libai. "Ride-Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber's Growth." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 519-706, May 2019.
      • May 2019
      • Case

      Ride-Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber's Growth

      By: Elie Ofek, Eitan Muller and Barak Libai
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      Ofek, Elie, Eitan Muller, and Barak Libai. "Ride-Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber's Growth." Harvard Business School Case 519-097, May 2019.
      • March 2019 (Revised May 2019)
      • Case

      Growth Investing at Totem Point

      By: Suraj Srinivasan, Charles C.Y. Wang and Jonah Goldberg
      The case describes the investment of hedge fund, Totem Point Management in Analog Semiconductors (ADI) as a way to discuss forecasting and valuation in growth companies. In June 2016, hedge fund Totem Point invested in ADI at around $55 a share. In general, Totem Point... View Details
      Keywords: Growth Investing; Investment; Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Valuation
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      Srinivasan, Suraj, Charles C.Y. Wang, and Jonah Goldberg. "Growth Investing at Totem Point." Harvard Business School Case 119-091, March 2019. (Revised May 2019.)
      • February 2019
      • Case

      Miroglio Fashion (A)

      By: Sunil Gupta and David Lane
      Francesco Cavarero, chief information officer of Miroglio Fashion, Italy’s third-largest retailer of women’s apparel, was trying to bring analytical rigor to the company’s forecasting and inventory management decisions. But fashion is inherently hard to predict. Can... View Details
      Keywords: Inventory Management; Demand Forecasting; Artificial Intelligence; Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Operations; Management; Decision Making; AI and Machine Learning; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Fashion Industry
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      Gupta, Sunil, and David Lane. "Miroglio Fashion (A)." Harvard Business School Case 519-053, February 2019.
      • Article

      Corporate Culture and Analyst Catering

      By: Joseph Pacelli
      This study examines the relation between financial institutions’ corporate culture and the quality of analysts’ research services. Using data collected from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, I measure the weakness of financial institutions’ corporate culture... View Details
      Keywords: Analysts; Corporate Culture; Global Settlement; Financial Institutions; Organizational Culture; Conflict of Interests; Performance; Quality
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      Pacelli, Joseph. "Corporate Culture and Analyst Catering." Journal of Accounting & Economics 67, no. 1 (February 2019): 120–143.
      • January 2019
      • Article

      Bubbles for Fama

      By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You
      We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio... View Details
      Keywords: Bubble; Market Efficiency; Predictability; Price Bubble; Stocks; Price; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Greenwood, Robin, Andrei Shleifer, and Yang You. "Bubbles for Fama." Journal of Financial Economics 131, no. 1 (January 2019): 20–43. (Internet Appendix Here.)
      • 2019
      • Book

      The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: The Fight for a Human Future at the New Frontier of Power

      By: Shoshana Zuboff
      In this masterwork of original thinking and research, Shoshana Zuboff provides startling insights into the phenomenon that she has named surveillance capitalism. The stakes could not be higher: a global architecture of behavior modification threatens human nature in... View Details
      Keywords: Consumer Profiling; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Information Technology; Power and Influence; Ethics; Society; Transformation
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      Zuboff, Shoshana. The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: The Fight for a Human Future at the New Frontier of Power. New York: PublicAffairs, 2019.
      • November 2018
      • Case

      Komatsu Komtrax: Asset Tracking Meets Demand Forecasting

      By: Willy Shih, Paul Hong and YoungWon Park
      Komatsu's Komtrax system started as a way of remotely monitoring and tracking equipment for the purpose of improving operational efficiency. This case follows its evolution towards other uses including demand forecasting for its sales, marketing, and production... View Details
      Keywords: Big Data; Manufacturing; Manufacturing Industry; Data Strategy; Internet Of Things; Construction; Production; Analytics and Data Science; Strategy; Performance Efficiency; Forecasting and Prediction; Industrial Products Industry; Construction Industry; Japan
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      Shih, Willy, Paul Hong, and YoungWon Park. "Komatsu Komtrax: Asset Tracking Meets Demand Forecasting." Harvard Business School Case 619-022, November 2018.
      • October 2018
      • Article

      The Operational Value of Social Media Information

      By: Ruomeng Cui, Santiago Gallino, Antonio Moreno and Dennis J. Zhang
      While the value of using social media information has been established in multiple business contexts, the field of operations and supply chain management have not yet explored the possibilities it offers in improving firms' operational decisions. This study attempts to... View Details
      Keywords: Machine Learning; Information; Sales; Forecasting and Prediction; Social Media
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      Cui, Ruomeng, Santiago Gallino, Antonio Moreno, and Dennis J. Zhang. "The Operational Value of Social Media Information." Special Issue on Big Data in Supply Chain Management. Production and Operations Management 27, no. 10 (October 2018): 1749–1774.
      • Article

      The Critical Role of Second-order Normative Beliefs in Predicting Energy Conservation

      By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Oliver P. Hauser, Julia D. O'Brien, Erin Sherman and Adam D. Galinsky
      Sustaining large-scale public goods requires individuals to make environmentally friendly decisions today to benefit future generations. Recent research suggests that second-order normative beliefs are more powerful predictors of behaviour than first-order personal... View Details
      Keywords: Climate Change; Energy; Environmental Sustainability; Household; Behavior; Values and Beliefs; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Jachimowicz, Jon M., Oliver P. Hauser, Julia D. O'Brien, Erin Sherman, and Adam D. Galinsky. "The Critical Role of Second-order Normative Beliefs in Predicting Energy Conservation." Nature Human Behaviour 2, no. 10 (October 2018): 757–764.
      • August 2018
      • Case

      Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2018)

      By: John Gourville
      One job of product managers, marketers, strategic planners, and other corporate executives is to predict what the demand will be for a new product. This task is easier for certain classes of new products than for others. For new consumer package goods, for instance,... View Details
      Keywords: Diffusion Processes; Product Adoption; Marketing; Forecasting and Prediction; Demand and Consumers; Adoption; Product Launch
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      Gourville, John. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2018)." Harvard Business School Case 519-018, August 2018.
      • August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
      • Case

      Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (A)

      By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
      This case follows VP of Marketing, Jill Wehunt, and analyst Mark Morse as they tackle a predictive analytics project to increase sales in the Mom & Baby unit of a nationally recognized retailer, PriceMart. Wehunt observed that in the midst of the chaos that surrounded... View Details
      Keywords: Data Science; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (A)." Harvard Business School Case 119-025, August 2018. (Revised September 2018.)
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