Publications

26 Apr 2023
In Practice

Is AI Coming for Your Job?

users may have additional knowledge or context that the AI doesn’t (e.g. that the AI hasn’t been trained on, propriety knowledge, a better understanding of the specific task at hand, etc.). Another risk with these generative AI models is... View Details

Keywords: by Kristen Senz; Technology

Web

Behavioral Finance & Financial Stability

about how market participants form expectations? The authors study the rationality of individual and consensus forecasts of macroeconomic and financial variables. They use a diagnostic expectations version of a dispersed information... View Details

26 Apr 2016
First Look

April 26

Case 216-023 Models of Endowment Management: King's College, Cambridge One of the University of Cambridge's Colleges evaluates different asset management options for its endowment fund. Purchase this case:... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

29 Aug 2006
First Look

First Look: August 29, 2006

Anton and Dennis A. Yao Periodical:Journal of Law, Economics and Organization (forthcoming) Abstract We examine the impact of patent infringement damages in an equilibrium oligopoly model of process innovation where the choice to infringe... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

2023
Working Paper

Evaluation and Learning in R&D Investment

By: Alexander P. Frankel, Joshua L. Krieger, Danielle Li and Dimitris Papanikolaou

We examine the role of spillover learning in shaping the value of exploratory versus incremental R&D. Using data from drug development, we show that novel drug candidates generate more knowledge spillovers than incremental ones. Despite being less likely to reach... View Details

Keywords: Research and Development; Forecasting and Prediction; Valuation; Pharmaceutical Industry

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21 Aug 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, August 21, 2018

We implement a variety of machine learning methods to forecast daily sales. We find that using social media information results in statistically significant improvements in the out-of-sample accuracy of the forecasts, with relative... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

Web

Technology & Operations Management - Faculty & Research

beliefs in settings where output quantities and input prices are unobservable, and we use it to evaluate allocative efficiency in the market for science. Our model of researchers’ labor supply shows that their willingness to pay for their... View Details

November 1999 (Revised July 2003)
Case

Pre-Paid Legal Services, Inc.

By: Paul M. Healy and Jacob Cohen

Pre-Paid Legal Services' business model reveals two key issues--managing the sales force and sales growth and managing claims. Students analyze the economics of the business and consider how to measure firm performance, how to evaluate and reward the sales force, and... View Details

Keywords: Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Salesforce Management; Marketing Strategy; Accrual Accounting; Business Cycles; Forecasting and Prediction; Insurance; Business Growth and Maturation; Insurance Industry

Educators

Web

Podcast - Business & Environment

Addict TuneIn Pandora Audacy Deezer JioSaavn 02 Jul 2025 Climate Rising Forecasting Climate Risk with Geospatial AI: Sarah Russell of X , the Moonshot Factory at Alphabet This episode, part of the Climate Rising series on climate... View Details

Article

Earnings Dynamics and Measurement Error in Matched Survey and Administrative Data

By: Dean Hyslop and Wilbur Townsend

This article analyzes earnings dynamics and measurement error using a matched longitudinal sample of individuals’ survey and administrative earnings. In line with previous literature, the reported differences are characterized by both persistent and transitory factors.... View Details

Keywords: Earnings Dynamics; Measurement Error; Panel Data; Validation Study; Business Earnings; Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction

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October–December 2022
Article

Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem

By: Mochen Yang, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch and Gediminas Adomavicius

Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data, followed... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Econometric Analysis; Instrumental Variable; Random Forest; Causal Inference; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction

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2023
Working Paper

'De Gustibus' and Disputes about Reference Dependence

By: Thomas Graeber, Pol Campos-Mercade, Lorenz Goette, Alexandre Kellogg and Charles Sprenger

Existing tests of reference-dependent preferences assume universal loss aversion. This paper examines the implications of heterogeneity in gain-loss attitudes for such tests. In experiments on labor supply and exchange behavior we measure gain-loss attitudes and then... View Details

Keywords: Behavioral Economics; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction

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Article

Competition for Scarce Resources

By: Peter Eso, Volker Nocke and Lucy White

We model a downstream industry where firms compete to buy capacity in an upstream market that allocates capacity efficiently. Although downstream firms have symmetric production technologies, we show that industry structure is symmetric only if capacity is sufficiently... View Details

Keywords: Competitive Strategy; Natural Environment; Technology; Production; Business Cycles; Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Demand and Consumers; Industry Structures; Performance Capacity

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20 Mar 2007
First Look

First Look: March 20, 2007

sales, inventory, and gross margin. We show that our model can be used to benchmark retailers' performance in sales, inventory, and gross margin simultaneously. Finally, we show that our model can be used to... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

01 Dec 2023
News

Thinking Ahead

As we wind down 2023, there’s talk everywhere of generative AI and how it will fundamentally alter the world as we know it; but how does that translate for your corner of the business world? Is TikTok something you need to take seriously? (Is it time to dance?) We... View Details

Keywords: Julia Hanna; Illustrations by Chris Gash; News, Library, Internet, and Other Services; Information

Web

Business & Environment - Faculty & Research

Responsible Investments That Make Firms More Profitable By: George Serafeim Article Transition to Clean Technology By: Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit, Douglas Hanley and William R. Kerr We develop a microeconomic model of endogenous growth... View Details

18 Jul 2023
Research & Ideas

Will Global Demand for Oil Peak This Decade?

Is the globe’s thirst for oil finally topping out? A major international energy watcher says yes, predicting last month that demand for global oil for transport will peak around 2026, plateau for all uses by 2028, and possibly hit a zenith by the end of the decade.... View Details

Keywords: by Alvin Powell, Harvard Gazette; Energy; Industrial Products; Auto; Green Technology

11 Dec 2007
First Look

First Look: December 11, 2007

stock prices had been reached. Despite Fisher's poor prediction on that occasion, he played a neglected, but significant role in the growth of the forecasting industry and in the rise of a class of early business analysts. An... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

April 2025 (Revised May 2025)
Background Note

Customer Acquisition and the Cash Flow Trap

By: E. Ofek, Barak Libai and Eitan Muller

Startups as well as existing firms recognize the need to invest in order to acquire customers for their new ventures. And as each customer is expected at some point to have generated sufficient gross margins to cover their CAC, management expects that, soon enough, the... View Details

Keywords: Business Model; Customers; Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Business or Company Management

Educators