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- Faculty Publications (149)
Show Results For
- All HBS Web (385)
- Faculty Publications (149)
- January–February 2023
- Article
Data-Driven COVID-19 Vaccine Development for Janssen
By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Michael Lingzhi Li, Xinggang Liu, Jennings Xu and Najat Khan
The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred extensive vaccine research worldwide. One crucial part of vaccine development is the phase III clinical trial that assesses the vaccine for safety and efficacy in the prevention of COVID-19. In this work, we enumerate the first... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Health Testing and Trials; Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Research; Pharmaceutical Industry
Bertsimas, Dimitris, Michael Lingzhi Li, Xinggang Liu, Jennings Xu, and Najat Khan. "Data-Driven COVID-19 Vaccine Development for Janssen." INFORMS Journal on Applied Analytics 53, no. 1 (January–February 2023): 70–84.
- 26 Apr 2023
- In Practice
Is AI Coming for Your Job?
users may have additional knowledge or context that the AI doesn’t (e.g. that the AI hasn’t been trained on, propriety knowledge, a better understanding of the specific task at hand, etc.). Another risk with these generative AI models is... View Details
- 29 Aug 2006
- First Look
First Look: August 29, 2006
Anton and Dennis A. Yao Periodical:Journal of Law, Economics and Organization (forthcoming) Abstract We examine the impact of patent infringement damages in an equilibrium oligopoly model of process innovation where the choice to infringe... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- Web
Behavioral Finance & Financial Stability
about how market participants form expectations? The authors study the rationality of individual and consensus forecasts of macroeconomic and financial variables. They use a diagnostic expectations version of a dispersed information... View Details
- 26 Apr 2016
- First Look
April 26
Case 216-023 Models of Endowment Management: King's College, Cambridge One of the University of Cambridge's Colleges evaluates different asset management options for its endowment fund. Purchase this case:... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- 21 Aug 2018
- First Look
New Research and Ideas, August 21, 2018
We implement a variety of machine learning methods to forecast daily sales. We find that using social media information results in statistically significant improvements in the out-of-sample accuracy of the forecasts, with relative... View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
- November 1999 (Revised July 2003)
- Case
Pre-Paid Legal Services, Inc.
By: Paul M. Healy and Jacob Cohen
Pre-Paid Legal Services' business model reveals two key issues--managing the sales force and sales growth and managing claims. Students analyze the economics of the business and consider how to measure firm performance, how to evaluate and reward the sales force, and... View Details
Keywords: Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Salesforce Management; Marketing Strategy; Accrual Accounting; Business Cycles; Forecasting and Prediction; Insurance; Business Growth and Maturation; Insurance Industry
Healy, Paul M., and Jacob Cohen. "Pre-Paid Legal Services, Inc." Harvard Business School Case 100-037, November 1999. (Revised July 2003.)
- 2023
- Working Paper
Evaluation and Learning in R&D Investment
By: Alexander P. Frankel, Joshua L. Krieger, Danielle Li and Dimitris Papanikolaou
We examine the role of spillover learning in shaping the value of exploratory versus incremental
R&D. Using data from drug development, we show that novel drug candidates generate more
knowledge spillovers than incremental ones. Despite being less likely to reach... View Details
Frankel, Alexander P., Joshua L. Krieger, Danielle Li, and Dimitris Papanikolaou. "Evaluation and Learning in R&D Investment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-074, May 2023. (NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31290, May 2023.)
- Web
Technology & Operations Management - Faculty & Research
beliefs in settings where output quantities and input prices are unobservable, and we use it to evaluate allocative efficiency in the market for science. Our model of researchers’ labor supply shows that their willingness to pay for their... View Details
- Article
Earnings Dynamics and Measurement Error in Matched Survey and Administrative Data
By: Dean Hyslop and Wilbur Townsend
This article analyzes earnings dynamics and measurement error using a matched longitudinal sample of individuals’ survey and administrative earnings. In line with previous literature, the reported differences are characterized by both persistent and transitory factors.... View Details
Keywords: Earnings Dynamics; Measurement Error; Panel Data; Validation Study; Business Earnings; Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction
Hyslop, Dean, and Wilbur Townsend. "Earnings Dynamics and Measurement Error in Matched Survey and Administrative Data." Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 38, no. 2 (2020).
- Web
Podcast - Business & Environment
Addict TuneIn Pandora Audacy Deezer JioSaavn 02 Jul 2025 Climate Rising Forecasting Climate Risk with Geospatial AI: Sarah Russell of X , the Moonshot Factory at Alphabet This episode, part of the Climate Rising series on climate... View Details
- 20 Mar 2007
- First Look
First Look: March 20, 2007
sales, inventory, and gross margin. We show that our model can be used to benchmark retailers' performance in sales, inventory, and gross margin simultaneously. Finally, we show that our model can be used to... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
- 2023
- Working Paper
'De Gustibus' and Disputes about Reference Dependence
By: Thomas Graeber, Pol Campos-Mercade, Lorenz Goette, Alexandre Kellogg and Charles Sprenger
Existing tests of reference-dependent preferences assume universal loss aversion. This paper examines the implications of heterogeneity in gain-loss attitudes for such tests. In experiments on labor supply and exchange behavior we measure gain-loss attitudes and then... View Details
Graeber, Thomas, Pol Campos-Mercade, Lorenz Goette, Alexandre Kellogg, and Charles Sprenger. "'De Gustibus' and Disputes about Reference Dependence." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-046, January 2024.
- October–December 2022
- Article
Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem
By: Mochen Yang, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch and Gediminas Adomavicius
Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data, followed... View Details
Keywords: Machine Learning; Econometric Analysis; Instrumental Variable; Random Forest; Causal Inference; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction
Yang, Mochen, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch, and Gediminas Adomavicius. "Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem." INFORMS Journal on Data Science 1, no. 2 (October–December 2022): 138–155.
- Article
Competition for Scarce Resources
By: Peter Eso, Volker Nocke and Lucy White
We model a downstream industry where firms compete to buy capacity in an upstream market that allocates capacity efficiently. Although downstream firms have symmetric production technologies, we show that industry structure is symmetric only if capacity is sufficiently... View Details
Keywords: Competitive Strategy; Natural Environment; Technology; Production; Business Cycles; Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Demand and Consumers; Industry Structures; Performance Capacity
Eso, Peter, Volker Nocke, and Lucy White. "Competition for Scarce Resources." RAND Journal of Economics 41, no. 3 (Fall 2010): 524–548.
- Web
Business & Environment - Faculty & Research
Responsible Investments That Make Firms More Profitable By: George Serafeim Article Transition to Clean Technology By: Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit, Douglas Hanley and William R. Kerr We develop a microeconomic model of endogenous growth... View Details
- 01 Dec 2023
- News
Thinking Ahead
As we wind down 2023, there’s talk everywhere of generative AI and how it will fundamentally alter the world as we know it; but how does that translate for your corner of the business world? Is TikTok something you need to take seriously? (Is it time to dance?) We... View Details
- 11 Dec 2007
- First Look
First Look: December 11, 2007
stock prices had been reached. Despite Fisher's poor prediction on that occasion, he played a neglected, but significant role in the growth of the forecasting industry and in the rise of a class of early business analysts. An... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
- 18 Jul 2023
- Research & Ideas
Will Global Demand for Oil Peak This Decade?
Is the globe’s thirst for oil finally topping out? A major international energy watcher says yes, predicting last month that demand for global oil for transport will peak around 2026, plateau for all uses by 2028, and possibly hit a zenith by the end of the decade.... View Details
- April 2025 (Revised May 2025)
- Background Note
Customer Acquisition and the Cash Flow Trap
By: E. Ofek, Barak Libai and Eitan Muller
Startups as well as existing firms recognize the need to invest in order to acquire customers for their new ventures. And as each customer is expected at some point to have generated sufficient gross margins to cover their CAC, management expects that, soon enough, the... View Details
Keywords: Business Model; Customers; Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Business or Company Management
Ofek, E., Barak Libai, and Eitan Muller. "Customer Acquisition and the Cash Flow Trap." Harvard Business School Background Note 525-056, April 2025. (Revised May 2025.)