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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(3,383)
- News (517)
- Research (2,489)
- Events (43)
- Multimedia (18)
- Faculty Publications (1,610)
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- August 2014
- Case
Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2014)
By: John Gourville
An updated "Four Products" case. This 2014 version includes: raw lobster meat, electric-powered Formula One race cars, a 3D printer for cosmetics, and a "smart" tennis racket.
These four products form the basis to assess the drivers of new product adoption. In... View Details
- May 2019
- Supplement
Ride-Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber's Growth
By: E. Ofek, Eitan Muller and Barak Libai
- Article
Quantile Evaluation, Sensitivity to Bracketing, and Sharing Business Payoffs
By: Y. Grushka-Cockayne, K. C. Lichtendahl, V.R.R. Jose and R.L. Winkler
From forecasting competitions to conditional value-at-risk requirements, the use of multiple quantile assessments is growing in practice. To evaluate them, we use a rule from the general class of proper scoring rules for a forecaster’s multiple quantiles of a single... View Details
Grushka-Cockayne, Y., K. C. Lichtendahl, V.R.R. Jose, and R.L. Winkler. "Quantile Evaluation, Sensitivity to Bracketing, and Sharing Business Payoffs." Operations Research 65, no. 3 (May–June 2017): 712–728.
- 2013
- Working Paper
Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity
By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence... View Details
Keywords: Expectations Hypothesis; Term Structure; Real Interest Rate Risk; Inflation Risk; Inflation-Indexed Bonds; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Liquidity; Bonds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; United Kingdom; United States
Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-094, March 2011. (Revised September 2013.)
- December 2021
- Article
Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight
By: Aticus Peterson and Andy Wu
We study how learning by experience across projects affects an entrepreneur's strategic foresight. In a quantitative study of 314 entrepreneurs across 722 crowdfunded projects supplemented with a program of qualitative interviews, we counterintuitively find that... View Details
Keywords: Crowdfunding; Experience; Prediction; Timeline; Complexity; Entrepreneurship; Learning; Experience and Expertise; Forecasting and Prediction
Peterson, Aticus, and Andy Wu. "Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight." Art. 1. Strategic Management Journal 42, no. 13 (December 2021): 2357–2388. (Lead article.)
- April 1966
- Article
A Two-Stage Forecasting Model: Exponential Smoothing and Multiple Regression
By: D. B. Crane and James R. Crotty
Keywords: Mathematical Methods
Crane, D. B., and James R. Crotty. "A Two-Stage Forecasting Model: Exponential Smoothing and Multiple Regression." Management Science 13, no. 8 (April 1966).
- Editorial
The Power of Precise Predictions
By: Philip E. Tetlock and J. Peter Scoblic
Keywords: Politics; Foreign Policy; Forecasting and Prediction; Globalization; Policy; Government and Politics
Tetlock, Philip E., and J. Peter Scoblic. "The Power of Precise Predictions." New York Times (October 4, 2015), SR10.
- Article
Physical and Situational Inequality on Airplanes Predict Air Rage
By: K. A. DeCelles and Michael I. Norton
We posit that the modern airplane is a social microcosm of class-based society, and that the increasing incidence of “air rage” can be understood through the lens of inequality. Research on inequality typically examines the effects of relatively fixed, macrostructural... View Details
Keywords: Physical Inequality; Equality and Inequality; Behavior; Air Transportation; Situation or Environment
DeCelles, K. A., and Michael I. Norton. "Physical and Situational Inequality on Airplanes Predict Air Rage." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113, no. 20 (May 17, 2016): 5588–5591.
- 2005
- Article
Airline Security, the Failure of 9/11, and Predictable Surprises
By: M. Bazerman and M. Watkins
Bazerman, M., and M. Watkins. "Airline Security, the Failure of 9/11, and Predictable Surprises." International Public Management Journal 8, no. 3 (2005): 365–377.
- October 1982
- Case
Data Resources, Inc.: The Tire-Production Forecast
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Data Resources, Inc.: The Tire-Production Forecast." Harvard Business School Case 183-096, October 1982.
- May 2019
- Case
Ride-Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber's Growth
By: Elie Ofek, Eitan Muller and Barak Libai
Ofek, Elie, Eitan Muller, and Barak Libai. "Ride-Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber's Growth." Harvard Business School Case 519-097, May 2019.
- January 2014
- Article
Self-reported Ethical Risk Taking Tendencies Predict Actual Dishonesty
By: Liora Zimerman, Shaul Shalvi and Yoella Bereby-Meyer
Are people honest about the extent to which they engage in unethical behaviors? We report an experiment examining the relation between self-reported risky unethical tendencies and actual dishonest behavior. Participants’ self-reported risk taking tendencies were... View Details
Keywords: DOSPERT; Risk Taking; Honesty; Lying; Dishonesty; Unethical Behavior; Moral Sensibility; Cognition and Thinking
Zimerman, Liora, Shaul Shalvi, and Yoella Bereby-Meyer. "Self-reported Ethical Risk Taking Tendencies Predict Actual Dishonesty." Judgment and Decision Making 9, no. 1 (January 2014): 58–64.
- Article
Mining Big Data to Extract Patterns and Predict Real-Life Outcomes
By: Michal Kosinki, Yilun Wang, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Jure Leskovec
Kosinki, Michal, Yilun Wang, Himabindu Lakkaraju, and Jure Leskovec. "Mining Big Data to Extract Patterns and Predict Real-Life Outcomes." Psychological Methods 21, no. 4 (December 2016): 493–506.
- 24 Sep 2020
- Research & Ideas
Financial Meltdowns Are More Predictable Than We Thought
research by Harvard Business School Professors Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson begs to differ. Financial crises, even ones as calamitous as the 2007-2008 banking meltdown, are surprisingly predictable... View Details
- April 2010
- Teaching Note
Four Products (2008): Predicting Diffusion (TN)
Teaching Note for 508103. View Details
- Article
Political Forecasting as a Management Tool
By: James E. Austin and David Yoffie
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Government and Politics; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques
Austin, James E., and David Yoffie. "Political Forecasting as a Management Tool." Journal of Forecasting 3, no. 4 (October–December 1984).
- July– September 2002
- Article
Predictive Value and the Usefulness of Game Theoretic Models
By: Ido Erev, Alvin E. Roth, Robert L. Slonim and Greg Barron
Erev, Ido, Alvin E. Roth, Robert L. Slonim, and Greg Barron. "Predictive Value and the Usefulness of Game Theoretic Models." International Journal of Forecasting 18, no. 3 (July– September 2002): 359–368.
- October 2008
- Article
The Effect of Macro Information Environment Change on the Quality of Management Earnings Forecasts
The 1990s were characterized by substantial increases in the performance of and investor reliance on financial analysts. Because managers possess superior private information and issue forecasts to align investors' expectations with their own, we predict that... View Details
Keywords: Information; Performance Expectations; Earnings Management; Financial Reporting; Forecasting and Prediction
Baginski, Stephen P., John M. Hassell, and Michael D. Kimbrough. "The Effect of Macro Information Environment Change on the Quality of Management Earnings Forecasts." Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting 31, no. 3 (October 2008): 311–330.
- May 1981 (Revised June 1994)
- Case
Stride Rite: Demand Forecasting Process (A)
Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Stride Rite: Demand Forecasting Process (A)." Harvard Business School Case 181-122, May 1981. (Revised June 1994.)
- January 1996
- Article
Real Business Cycle Models and the Forecastable Movements in Output, Hours and Consumption
By: J. J. Rotemberg and Michael Woodford
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
Rotemberg, J. J., and Michael Woodford. "Real Business Cycle Models and the Forecastable Movements in Output, Hours and Consumption." American Economic Review 86, no. 1 (January 1996): 71–89.