Publications

March 2022 (Revised January 2025)
Technical Note

Prediction & Machine Learning

By: Iavor I. Bojinov, Michael Parzen and Paul Hamilton

This note provides an introduction to machine learning for an introductory data science course. The note begins with a description of supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning. Then, the note provides a brief explanation of the difference between traditional... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Data Science; Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Performance Evaluation; AI and Machine Learning

26 Nov 2019
News

Predicting Financial Market Bubbles and Crises in Real-time

turnover, age of the firm, and the percentage of firms that issued stock during a run-up, among other factors. Greenwood found that, while Fama was correct in asserting that sharp price increases do not View Details

Keywords: Securities, Commodities, and Other Financial Investments; Securities, Commodities, and Other Financial Investments

22 Jan 2025
News

11 Predictions for Work and Leadership in 2025

06 May 2015
What Do You Think?

Are You Ready for Personalized Predictive Analytics?

amounts of inventory that ensure an in-stock position when an order is received. An argument can be made that any forecast and inventory is based on predictive analytics. But... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett

June 2020
Teaching Note

Ride-Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber's Growth

By: Elie Ofek, Barak Libai and Eitan Muller

Teaching Note for HBS No. 519-097. View Details

August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
Case

Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (A)

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler

This case follows VP of Marketing, Jill Wehunt, and analyst Mark Morse as they tackle a predictive analytics project to increase sales in the Mom & Baby unit of a nationally recognized retailer, PriceMart. Wehunt observed that in the midst of the chaos that surrounded... View Details

Keywords: Data Science; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction

April 2008
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2008)

By: John T. Gourville

An updated "Four Products" case. This 2008 version includes: sliced peanut butter, foldable bicycle tires, high-end wooden puzzles, and artificial dirt for thoroughbred race tracks. These four products form the basis to assess the drivers of new product adoption. In... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Adoption

May 1981 (Revised June 1994)
Case

Stride Rite: Demand Forecasting Process (A)

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.

Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Apparel and Accessories Industry

Article

Buying (Quality) Time Predicts Relationship Satisfaction

By: A.V. Whillans, Jessie Pow and Joe J. Gladstone

Seven studies examine the association between time-saving purchases (e.g., housecleaning and meal delivery services) and relationship satisfaction. Study 1 uses an eleven-year longitudinal panel survey to show that increases in time-saving purchases predict long-term... View Details

Keywords: Personal Finance; Family and Family Relationships; Satisfaction; Well-being

January 1986 (Revised April 1987)
Background Note

Models for Updating Demand Forecasts

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction

07 Oct 2024
Research & Ideas

Election 2024: Why Demographics Won't Predict the Next President

Pundits love a political horse race, parsing the latest polls to predict who might win an election. And in the final runup to the US presidential contest, these forecasts can... View Details

Keywords: by Jay Fitzgerald

Article

Beyond Individualized Recourse: Interpretable and Interactive Summaries of Actionable Recourses

By: Kaivalya Rawal and Himabindu Lakkaraju

As predictive models are increasingly being deployed in high-stakes decision-making, there has been a lot of interest in developing algorithms which can provide recourses to affected individuals. While developing such tools is important, it is even more critical to... View Details

Keywords: Predictive Models; Decision Making; Framework; Mathematical Methods

July–August 1995
Article

The Power of Predictability

By: H. H. Stevenson and M. C. Moldoveanu

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction

2013
Working Paper

Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity

By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira

Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence... View Details

Keywords: Expectations Hypothesis; Term Structure; Real Interest Rate Risk; Inflation Risk; Inflation-Indexed Bonds; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Liquidity; Bonds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; United Kingdom; United States

SSRN

October 1982
Case

Data Resources, Inc.: The Tire-Production Forecast

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction

April 1966
Article

A Two-Stage Forecasting Model: Exponential Smoothing and Multiple Regression

By: D. B. Crane and James R. Crotty

Keywords: Mathematical Methods

20 Jun 2016
Research & Ideas

When Predicting Other People's Preferences, You're Probably Wrong

implications for anyone looking to impress others, for those who are tasked with forecasting consumer behavior, or for salespeople who consult with customers on prospective purchases. In short, it’s dangerous to View Details

Keywords: by Carmen Nobel; Retail

August 2014
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2014)

By: John Gourville

An updated "Four Products" case. This 2014 version includes: raw lobster meat, electric-powered Formula One race cars, a 3D printer for cosmetics, and a "smart" tennis racket. These four products form the basis to assess the drivers of new product adoption. In... View Details

Keywords: Product Diffusion; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Technology Adoption