Publications

2009
Working Paper

Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect

By: Amir E. Khandani, Andrew W. Lo and Robert C. Merton

The confluence of three trends in the U.S. residential housing market-rising home prices, declining interest rates, and near-frictionless refinancing opportunities-led to vastly increased systemic risk in the financial system. Individually, each of these trends is... View Details

Keywords: Equity; Mortgages; Interest Rates; Price; Housing; Risk and Uncertainty; United States

January 2006
Teaching Note

Foreign Exchange Hedging Strategies at General Motors: Transactional and Translational Exposures (TN)

By: Mihir A. Desai and Kathleen Luchs

Keywords: Currency Exchange Rate; Investment Funds; Auto Industry

27 May 2011
Working Paper Summaries

An Empirical Decomposition of Risk and Liquidity in Nominal and Inflation-Indexed Government Bonds

Keywords: by Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira

2004
Working Paper

Contract Rights and Risk Aversion: Foreign Banks and the Mexican Economy, 1997-2004

By: Stephen Haber and Aldo Musacchio

In 1997 Mexico allowed foreign banks unrestricted entry to the market. What impact did foreign mergers and acquisitions have on Mexico's banks? We find that all banks in Mexico have become increasingly risk averse, and that foreign banks are even more so. Foreign banks... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Contracts; Market Entry and Exit; Globalization; Microeconomics; Banks and Banking; Banking Industry; Mexico

January 2025
Technical Note

AI vs Human: Analyzing Acceptable Error Rates Using the Confusion Matrix

By: Tsedal Neeley and Tim Englehart

This technical note introduces the confusion matrix as a foundational tool in artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) for assessing the performance of classification models, focusing on their reliability for decision-making. A confusion matrix... View Details

Keywords: Reliability; Confusion Matrix; AI and Machine Learning; Decision Making; Measurement and Metrics; Performance

March 2014 (Revised June 2015)
Case

Can Mexico Make Democracy Work?

By: Gunnar Trumbull and Jonathan Schlefer

Enrique Peña Nieto, the presidential candidate of the old Mexican ruling party elected in 2012, passed the most fundamental reforms in at least two decades. They included allowing private competition in the energy sector, including with the state-owned oil company,... View Details

Keywords: Democratization; Economic Development; Competition Policy; Exchange Rates; Comparative Advantage; Growth and Development; Government Legislation; Political Elections; Economic Growth; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Energy Industry; Communications Industry; Banking Industry; Latin America; Mexico

10 Dec 2021
Research & Ideas

Truth Be Told: Unpacking the Risks of Whistleblowing

In 2018, HBS associate professors Aiyesha Dey and Jonas Heese wrote a case about a whistleblower at a multi-national gambling company who exposed financial misstatements, first to his manager and later to the US Securities and Exchange... View Details

Keywords: by April White

15 May 2009
Working Paper Summaries

Barriers to Household Risk Management: Evidence from India

Keywords: by Shawn Cole, Xavier Giné, Jeremy Tobacman, Petia Topalova, Robert Townsend & James Vickery

January 2004 (Revised April 2011)
Teaching Note

Farmington Industries,Inc.: Managing Currency Exposure Risk (TN)

By: David F. Hawkins and Jacob Cohen

Teaching Note to 104053. View Details

Keywords: Currency Exchange Rate; Electronics Industry; Mexico

09 May 2005
Research & Ideas

Hold or Fold? Sizing Up Business Risk

column, "want other things." When you put these three dimensions together, you get a simple matrix that looks like this. We've included a line for you to add your rationale or thinking for the initial ratings you make on each of... View Details

Keywords: by Eileen C. Shapiro & Howard H. Stevenson

17 Oct 2024
Research & Ideas

The Reputation Risks of Sharing Fake News

Policies on Trade.” The researchers asked participants what they thought the consequences would be for their reputations within their own social circles if they shared these headlines. The participants also rated the accuracy of the... View Details

Keywords: by Avery Forman

2017
Article

Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds

By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira

The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of... View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Bonds; Interest Rates; Investment Return; Risk Management

16 Sep 2019
Research & Ideas

Crowdsourcing Is Helping Hollywood Reduce the Risk of Movie-Making

is ready for audiences, making them risky and expensive propositions. “Each one is a huge project, and the success rate is quite low,” says Hong Luo, the James Dinan and Elizabeth Miller Associate Professor of Business Administration in... View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding; Motion Pictures & Video

January 2024 (Revised May 2024)
Case

PortageBay and ESG Analytics

By: Vikram S. Gandhi and Radhika Kak

In 2023, sustainable investors faced several challenges. The first was the lack of access to standardized and vetted environmental, social, and governance (ESG) data, and equally, the interpretation of this data into investment-useful insights. Reducing reliance on... View Details

Keywords: ESG Ratings; Investment Funds; Governance; Environmental Sustainability; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact

2013
Working Paper

Do Strict Capital Requirements Raise the Cost of Capital? Banking Regulation and the Low Risk Anomaly

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

Minimum capital requirements are a central tool of banking regulation. Setting them balances a number of factors, including any effects on the cost of capital and in turn the rates available to borrowers. Standard theory predicts that, in perfect and efficient capital... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Cost of Capital; Capital Markets; Banks and Banking; Banking Industry; United States

06 Jun 2013
Working Paper Summaries

Do Strict Capital Requirements Raise the Cost of Capital? Banking Regulation and the Low Risk Anomaly

Keywords: by Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler; Banking; Financial Services

Article

Do Strict Capital Requirements Raise the Cost of Capital? Bank Regulation, Capital Structure and the Low Risk Anomaly

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

Traditional capital structure theory predicts that reducing banks' leverage reduces the risk and cost of equity but does not change the weighted average cost of capital, and thus the rates for borrowers. We confirm that the equity of better-capitalized banks has lower... View Details

Keywords: Capital Structure; Banks and Banking; Banking Industry

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