Discounted Cash Flows - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2005
Working Paper

Money Illusion in the Stock Market: The Modigliani-Cohn Hypothesis

By: Randolph B. Cohen, Christopher Polk and Tuomo Vuolteenaho

Modigliani and Cohn [1979] hypothesize that the stock market suffers from money illusion, discounting real cash flows at nominal discount rates. While previous research has focused on the pricing of the aggregate stock market relative to Treasury bills, the... View Details

Keywords: Stocks; Price; Cash Flow

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July 2001
Technical Note

Technical Note on LBO Valuation (A): LBO Structure and the Target IRR Method of Valuation

By: Carliss Y. Baldwin

Explains the equity cash flow method of valuation as it applies to leveraged buyouts. Also explains: 1) earnings and cash flow forecasts, 2) debt structure and the cash sweep, 3) the cashing out horizon and terminal valuation, and 4) the target IRR method of valuation. View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Leveraged Buyouts; Capital Budgeting; Borrowing and Debt; Cash Flow; Equity; Profit; Price; Forecasting and Prediction

October 2000 (Revised April 2001)
Case

Cost of Capital at Ameritrade

By: Mark L. Mitchell and Erik Stafford

Ameritrade Holding Corp. is planning large marketing and technology investments to improve the company's competitive position in deep-discount brokerage by taking advantage of emerging economies of scale. In order to evaluate whether the strategy would generate... View Details

Keywords: Developing Countries and Economies; Asset Pricing; Cash Flow; Cost of Capital; Investment; Marketing; Mathematical Methods; Competition; Information Technology; Internet and the Web; Financial Services Industry

November 2020
Teaching Note

Valuing Celgene's CVR

By: Benjamin C. Esty and Daniel Fisher

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 221-031. When Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) acquired Celgene Corporation in November 2019, Celgene shareholders received cash, BMS stock, and a contingent value right (CVRs) that would pay $9 if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)... View Details

Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Valuation; Value; Judgments; Decision Making; Cash Flow; Financial Instruments; Cognition and Thinking; Pharmaceutical Industry; Biotechnology Industry; United States

March 1994 (Revised June 1999)
Background Note

Real Options: Valuing Managerial Flexibility

Provides a basic understanding of real options in corporate finance. Traditional discounted cash flow techniques (NPV) do not deal well with managerial flexibility or future response to uncertainty. The value of this flexibility can be significant and is handled well... View Details

Keywords: Strategy; Capital Budgeting; Corporate Finance

February 1991 (Revised November 1993)
Supplement

Investment Analysis and Lockheed Tri Star

A set of five exercises in capital budgeting. Student calculates and compares various decision criteria (including IRR and NPV) for capital investment projects. This is an introductory case, where relevant cash flows are provided, and the focus is on the discounting... View Details

Keywords: Capital Budgeting; Manufacturing Industry; Air Transportation Industry

January 1995 (Revised August 1997)
Background Note

Cross-Border Valuation

By: Kenneth A. Froot and W. Carl Kester

Provides a review of valuation techniques used to assess cross-border investments. Discusses the discounting of free cash flows with a weighted average cost of capital and the use of adjusted present value. Special concerns such as foreign-exchange risk, country risks,... View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues

January 1993 (Revised October 1994)
Background Note

Note on Adjusted Present Value

By: Timothy A. Luehrman

Describes the "adjusted present value" (APV) approach to discounted cash flow analysis. Much of the note is devoted to a critical comparison of APV and an approach based on the wrighted average cost of capital (WACC). Argues that APV is usually, if not always, simpler,... View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Cost of Capital

June 2017
Case

AT&T Versus Verizon: A Financial Comparison

By: V.G. Narayanan and Joel L. Heilprin

This case asks students to prepare a report comparing the financial and operating performance of AT&T and Verizon. Taking the perspective of a communications industry analyst, they must also consider the differences between and implications of the companies' business... View Details

Keywords: Financial Statements; Operations; Analysis; Business Model; Accounting; Performance Effectiveness; Telecommunications Industry

2023
Working Paper

The Optimal Stock Valuation Ratio

By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy

Trailing price ratios, such as the price-dividend and the price-earnings ratio, scale prices by trailing cash flow measures. They theoretically contain expected returns, yet, their performance in predicting stock market returns is poor. This is because of an omitted... View Details

Keywords: Price; Investment Return; AI and Machine Learning; Valuation; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction

2020
Working Paper

Short-Termism, Shareholder Payouts, and Investment in the EU

By: Jesse M. Fried and Charles C.Y. Wang

Investor-driven “short-termism” is said to harm EU public firms' ability to invest for the long term, prompting calls for the EU to better insulate managers from shareholder pressure. But the evidence offered—in the form of rising levels of repurchases and dividends—is... View Details

Keywords: Short-termism; Quarterly Capitalism; EU; Dividends; Equity Issuances; Equity Compensastion; Capital Flows; Capital Distribution; R＆D; Innovation; Investment; Corporate Governance; Investment Return; Acquisition; European Union

May 2000 (Revised January 2003)
Case

Health Development Corporation

By: Richard S. Ruback

Health Development Corp. (HDC) owns and operates health clubs in the Greater Boston area. HDC engaged a local investment banker to explore a sale of the company. The most likely buyer views HDC's prior purchase of real estate as a negative. HDC's management is... View Details

Keywords: Cash Flow; Property; Business Exit or Shutdown; Valuation; Value; Decisions; Health Industry; Boston

February 2001 (Revised April 2001)
Background Note

Note on Valuing Private Businesses

By: Dwight B. Crane and Indra Reinbergs

This case provides a brief overview of valuation for owners of closely held companies. The focus is on a comparable transactions approach, although rules of thumb and discounted cash flow are mentioned. Earnings multiples and their drivers are discussed. It uses... View Details

Keywords: Earnings Management; Finance; Cash Flow; Analytics and Data Science; Private Ownership; Valuation

2024
Working Paper

Economic Budgeting for Endowment-Dependent Universities

By: John Y. Campbell, Jeremy C. Stein and Alex A. Wu

To understand their financial position, universities need to understand the long-term implications of their operating revenues and costs in relation to the financial assets they have available. Standard budgeting procedures that focus on one or two years at a time and... View Details

Keywords: Budgets and Budgeting; Cash Flow; Cost; Revenue; Education Industry

1998
Article

Alternative Models of Uncertain Commodity Prices for Use with Modern Asset Pricing Methods

By: Malcolm Baker, E. S. Mayfield and John Parsons

This paper provides an introduction to alternative models of uncertain commodity prices. A model of commodity price movements is the engine around which any valuation methodology for commodity production projects is built, whether discounted cash flow (DCF) models or... View Details

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Goods and Commodities; Price; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Production; Projects; Cash Flow

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December 2012
Case

Coca-Cola: Residual Income Valuation

By: Suraj Srinivasan, Beiting Cheng and Edward J. Riedl

The case illustrates the use of the residual income (also known as the abnormal earnings) valuation approach. Students are asked to provide a valuation of Coca-Cola Company using the residual income valuation methodology and understand how it maps into the discounted... View Details

Keywords: Business Earnings; Valuation; Financial Statements; Equity; Food and Beverage Industry

April 2008
Supplement

ProfitLogic (CW)

By: Lynda M. Applegate, Richard G. Hamermesh and Michael J. Roberts

This interactive spreadsheet accompanies the ProfitLogic case (#802-110) to enable analysis of the cash flow implications of three business models that the company is considering. Students are able to change key assumptions and see the impact on cash flow. View Details

Keywords: Cash Flow; Business Model

October 2001 (Revised November 2001)
Case

Provident Life and Accident Insurance: The Acquisition of Paul Revere

By: Mihir A. Desai, Frank Williamson, Mark Veblen and Yuming Zou

Provident Life & Accident Insurance Co. has made an initial bid to acquire a primary competitor, Paul Revere, from conglomerate, Textron. The due diligence process uncovers a significant block of problematic disability insurance policies. Provident is forced to assess... View Details

Keywords: Insurance; Financial Management; Mergers and Acquisitions; Policy; Investment; Business Strategy; Cash Flow; Price; Bids and Bidding; Financial Reporting; Business Conglomerates; Insurance Industry; Service Industry

January 2005
Tutorial

Buying Time

By: Robert S. Kaplan

Managers must frequently make decisions involving trade-offs between cash flows to be paid or received at different points in time. Accountants, in turn, must describe transactions that involve the payment and/or receipt of cash far in the future. This interactive... View Details

Keywords: Cash Flow; Value; Interest Rates; Financial Statements

June 1992 (Revised June 1993)
Case

Crystal Meadows of Tahoe, Inc.

By: William J. Bruns Jr.

An introductory case in cash flow analysis and the preparation of statements of cash flows. Based on the 1991 income statement and balance sheet at a ski resort company, the case provides additional information which allows a student to prepare both a direct and an... View Details

Keywords: Cash Flow; Financial Statements

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