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  • August 2020 (Revised September 2020)
  • Technical Note

Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models

By: Michael W. Toffel, Natalie Epstein, Kris Ferreira and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
The note introduces a variety of methods to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models. The note begins by briefly introducing machine learning, overfitting, training versus test datasets, and cross validation. The following accuracy metrics and tools... View Details
Keywords: Machine Learning; Statistics; Econometric Analyses; Experimental Methods; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Mathematical Methods
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Toffel, Michael W., Natalie Epstein, Kris Ferreira, and Yael Grushka-Cockayne. "Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models." Harvard Business School Technical Note 621-045, August 2020. (Revised September 2020.)
  • Article

Crowdsourcing City Government: Using Tournaments to Improve Inspection Accuracy

By: Edward Glaeser, Andrew Hillis, Scott Duke Kominers and Michael Luca
The proliferation of big data makes it possible to better target city services like hygiene inspections, but city governments rarely have the in-house talent needed for developing prediction algorithms. Cities could hire consultants, but a cheaper alternative is to... View Details
Keywords: User-generated Content; Operations; Tournaments; Policy-making; Machine Learning; Online Platforms; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods; City; Infrastructure; Business Processes; Government and Politics
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Glaeser, Edward, Andrew Hillis, Scott Duke Kominers, and Michael Luca. "Crowdsourcing City Government: Using Tournaments to Improve Inspection Accuracy." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 106, no. 5 (May 2016): 114–118.
  • Article

How Elastic Are Preferences for Redistribution? Evidence from Randomized Survey Experiments

By: Ilyana Kuziemko, Michael I. Norton, Emmanuel Saez and Stefanie Stantcheva
We analyze randomized online survey experiments providing interactive, customized information on U.S. income inequality, the link between top income tax rates and economic growth, and the estate tax. The treatment has large effects on views about inequality but only... View Details
Keywords: Income; Taxation; Economic Growth; United States
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Kuziemko, Ilyana, Michael I. Norton, Emmanuel Saez, and Stefanie Stantcheva. "How Elastic Are Preferences for Redistribution? Evidence from Randomized Survey Experiments." American Economic Review 105, no. 4 (April 2015): 1478–1508.
  • 31 May 2016
  • First Look

May 31, 2016

have a higher probability of walking by the clinic for reasons other than vaccination. Method: We obtained data from an employer with a free workplace influenza vaccination clinic. Using each employee’s building entry/exit swipe card... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 10 Apr 2012
  • First Look

First Look: April 10

Corstjens and Rajiv Lal Publication:Harvard Business Review 90, no. 4 (April 2012) Abstract Most companies assume that the easiest way to grow is by investing overseas and that the developing world offers the best opportunities for... View Details
Keywords: Carmen Nobel
  • 28 May 2008
  • First Look

First Look: May 28, 2008

the paper: http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/08-096.pdf Shamed and Able: How Firms Respond to Being Rated (Revised May 2008) Authors:Aaron K. Chatterji and Michael W. Toffel Abstract We examine how firms respond to third-party ratings of... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 2008
  • Working Paper

Wellsprings of Creation: How Perturbation Sustains Exploration in Mature Organizations

By: David James Brunner, Bradley R. Staats, Michael L. Tushman and David M. Upton
Organizations struggle to balance simultaneous imperatives to exploit and explore, yet theorists differ as to whether exploitation undermines or enhances exploration. The debate reflects a gap: the missing mechanism by which organizations break free of old routines and... View Details
Keywords: Disruption; Innovation and Management; Business Processes; Opportunities; Creativity
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Brunner, David James, Bradley R. Staats, Michael L. Tushman, and David M. Upton. "Wellsprings of Creation: How Perturbation Sustains Exploration in Mature Organizations." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 09-011, July 2008. (Revised June 2009, September 2010.)
  • February 2020
  • Supplement

Indigo Agriculture: Harnessing Nature

By: Michael W. Toffel and James Barnett
Indigo Agriculture used a digital-enabled research and development (R&D) process to launch its initial product, microbial coatings for agricultural seeds, which increase crop yields while reducing the need for fertilizers. In doing so, the company developed direct... View Details
Keywords: Operations; Supply Chain; Social Enterprise; Product Development; Distribution Channels; Business Strategy; Digital Platforms; Environmental Sustainability; Science-Based Business; Climate Change; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Green Technology Industry; United States; Massachusetts
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Toffel, Michael W., and James Barnett. "Indigo Agriculture: Harnessing Nature." Harvard Business School PowerPoint Supplement 620-110, February 2020.
  • Fall 2016
  • Article

The Integrity of Private Third-party Compliance Monitoring

By: Jodi L. Short and Michael W. Toffel
Government agencies are increasingly turning to private, third-party monitors to inspect and assess regulated entities’ compliance with law. The integrity of these regulatory regimes rests on the validity of the information third-party monitors provide to regulators.... View Details
Keywords: Regulation; Compliance; Compliance Policies; Conflict Of Interest; Independent Third Party; Inspection; Audit Quality; Auditor; Audit; Environment; Safety; Conflict of Interests; Working Conditions; Labor; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Governance Compliance; Accounting Audits
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Short, Jodi L., and Michael W. Toffel. "The Integrity of Private Third-party Compliance Monitoring." Administrative & Regulatory Law News 42, no. 1 (Fall 2016): 22–25.
  • 2015
  • Working Paper

The Integrity of Private Third-party Compliance Monitoring

By: Jodi L. Short and Michael W. Toffel
Government agencies are increasingly turning to private, third-party monitors to inspect and assess regulated entities’ compliance with law. The integrity of these regulatory regimes rests on the validity of the information third-party monitors provide to regulators.... View Details
Keywords: Regulation; Compliance; Compliance Policies; Conflict Of Interest; Independent Third Party; Inspection; Audit Quality; Auditor; Audit; Environment; Production; Supply Chain; Quality; Government Administration; Working Conditions; Safety; Labor; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Governance Compliance; Manufacturing Industry; Public Administration Industry; Accounting Industry; Service Industry; United States
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Short, Jodi L., and Michael W. Toffel. "The Integrity of Private Third-party Compliance Monitoring." Harvard Kennedy School Regulatory Policy Program Working Paper, No. RPP-2015-20, November 2015. (Revised December 2015.)
  • 2008
  • Working Paper

Variance-Seeking for Positive (and Variance-Aversion for Negative) Experiences: Risk-Seeking in the Domain of Gains?

By: Jolie Mae Martin, Gregory M. Barron and Michael I. Norton
In contrast to research which has conflated losses with negative experiences and gains with positive experiences, we argue that because reference points are set by memories of extremely good and bad experiences, most outcomes are seen as losses in positive domains and... View Details
Keywords: Change; Experience and Expertise; Marketing; Research; Risk and Uncertainty; Loss; Perspective
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Martin, Jolie Mae, Gregory M. Barron, and Michael I. Norton. "Variance-Seeking for Positive (and Variance-Aversion for Negative) Experiences: Risk-Seeking in the Domain of Gains?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-070, February 2008.
  • 22 Jun 2010
  • First Look

First Look: June 22

advertising market—one that suffers quite a different set of problems. Display advertising systems place ads-typically, rectangular "banners"—on the majority of popular web sites. Though display ads are widespread, they are also troubled—ignored View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 02 Apr 2019
  • First Look

New Research and Ideas, April 2, 2019

Frame Flexibility: The Role of Cognitive and Emotional Framing in Innovation Adoption by Incumbent Firms By: Raffaelli, Ryan, Mary Ann Glynn, and Michael Tushman Abstract—Why do incumbent firms frequently... View Details
Keywords: Dina Gerdeman
  • January 2021
  • Case

The FIRE Savings Calculator

By: Michael Parzen and Paul Hamilton
This case follows Carol Muñoz, a member of the Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) lifestyle movement. At the age of 45, Carol is considering retiring and living off the $1 million she has accumulated. Using Monte Carlo simulation, Carol forecasts the... View Details
Keywords: Analysis; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Strategy; Investment Portfolio; Investment Return; Personal Finance; Saving; Risk and Uncertainty; Diversification; Theory; Personal Development and Career; Financial Services Industry
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Parzen, Michael, and Paul Hamilton. "The FIRE Savings Calculator." Harvard Business School Case 621-087, January 2021.
  • November 2024
  • Case

Dr. Bombay Ice Cream

By: William R. Kerr, Alexis Brownell and Michael Liu
This case examines the creation, launch, and rapid growth of Dr. Bombay Ice Cream, a joint venture between Happi Co., a consumer packaged goods incubator, and entertainment mogul Snoop Dogg, with his son, Cordell Broadus. The brand was inspired by a Bored Ape Yacht... View Details
Keywords: Joint Ventures; Growth Management; Brands and Branding; Product Launch; Product Positioning; Market Entry and Exit; Distribution Channels; Food and Beverage Industry; United States
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Kerr, William R., Alexis Brownell, and Michael Liu. "Dr. Bombay Ice Cream." Harvard Business School Case 825-090, November 2024.
  • February 2018 (Revised June 2018)
  • Case

Uruguay: Facing the 21st Century

By: Sophus A. Reinert, Michael Chu and Carin-Isabel Knoop
In the fall of 2017, self-made business leader Edgardo Novick pondered his campaign to be elected President of Uruguay, “the Switzerland of Latin America.” Inspired by populist revolts against the status quo observable worldwide, Novick hoped he could ride popular... View Details
Keywords: Uruguay; Edgardo Novick; Business Cycles; Macroeconomics; Geographic Location; Government and Politics; Wealth and Poverty; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Globalization; Pulp and Paper Industry; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Uruguay
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Reinert, Sophus A., Michael Chu, and Carin-Isabel Knoop. "Uruguay: Facing the 21st Century." Harvard Business School Case 318-019, February 2018. (Revised June 2018.)
  • 2003
  • Article

Developing a Management Systems Approach to Sustainability at BMW Group

By: Michael W. Toffel, Natalie Hill and Kellie McElhaney
This article describes how Designworks/USA, a subsidiary of BMW Group, developed a Sustainability Management System (SMS) by integrating the management of environmental, social, and traditional business issues. After several months of deploying the SMS throughout its... View Details
Keywords: Environmental Sustainability; Management Systems; Standards; Operations; Auto Industry
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Toffel, Michael W., Natalie Hill, and Kellie McElhaney. "Developing a Management Systems Approach to Sustainability at BMW Group." Corporate Environmental Strategy 10, no. 2 (2003).
  • September 2016
  • Article

Communicating Value in Healthcare Using Radar Charts: A Case Study of Prostate Cancer

By: Nikhil G. Thaker, Tariq N. Ali, Michael E. Porter, Thomas W. Feeley, Robert S. Kaplan and Steven J. Frank
Question: Can we create a value-based tool to visualize the outcomes and cost of various treatments that could facilitate patient-centered decision making?

Summary Answer: We developed a standardized value framework by using radar charts to visualize and... View Details
Keywords: Decision Making; Health Care and Treatment; Health Industry
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Thaker, Nikhil G., Tariq N. Ali, Michael E. Porter, Thomas W. Feeley, Robert S. Kaplan, and Steven J. Frank. "Communicating Value in Healthcare Using Radar Charts: A Case Study of Prostate Cancer." Journal of Oncology Practice 12, no. 9 (September 2016): 813–820.
  • 08 Oct 2013
  • First Look

First Look: October 8

differentiate "quality FDI" in several different ways. First, we look at the possibility that the effects of FDI differ by sector. Second, we differentiate FDI based on objective qualitative industry characteristics including... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • July 1976 (Revised April 1983)
  • Case

Corning Glass Works: The Electronic Products Division (A)

By: Michael Beer
Describes a division of Corning Glass Works that finds itself with deep financial and organizational problems. Severe conflict and lack of coordination exist between functional groups. Employees do not have a sense of direction and morale is low. Provides sufficient... View Details
Keywords: Business Divisions; Change Management; Transformation; Employees; Working Conditions; Business or Company Management; Organizational Change and Adaptation
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Beer, Michael. "Corning Glass Works: The Electronic Products Division (A)." Harvard Business School Case 477-024, July 1976. (Revised April 1983.)
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