Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research

01 Oct 1997
News

High Fives

many stocks in a lot of countries and weighting the countries more or less equally. It's simply too difficult to predict which market's going to be down 67 percent and which one's going to be up 102 percent in any given year.” Biggest... View Details

01 Mar 2018
News

Every Trick in the Book

’80s—moving it from the city streets to the suburban shopping center, standardizing the book-buying experience, and starting the familiar race to big, bigger, and biggest, and cheap, cheaper, and cheapest. By 1980, analysts were View Details

Keywords: April White

25 Aug 2022
News

Up on the Corner

issues in West Baltimore that fall at the intersection of architecture, politics, and social justice. “Housing supply has not kept up with soaring demand and with the World Bank predicting that by 2030, three billion people, or 40 percent... View Details

Keywords: Alexander Gelfand; photographed by Melissa Golden; Real Estate

18 Oct 2013
Working Paper Summaries

Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks

Keywords: by John Y. Campbell, Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira

22 Jul 2019
Book

How to Be a Digital Platform Leader

All of the most valuable firms in the world today are platforms, starting with Apple, Microsoft, Google and Amazon. But platforms do not evolve in predictable ways, and there is a lot that managers and entrepreneurs can learn about past,... View Details

Keywords: by Martha Lagace

Research Summary

Overview

By: Iavor I. Bojinov

Over the last decade, technology companies like Amazon, Google, and Netflix have pioneered data-driven research and development processes centered on massive experimentation. However, as companies increase the breadth and scale of their experiments to millions of... View Details

Research Summary

Overview

Grant uses a combination of laboratory and field experiments to harness consumers' cognitive and affective resources to increase their well-being. Consumers make countless daily decisions in the pursuit of happiness -- whether and how to spend or save their money, what... View Details

Keywords: Well-being; Judgment And Decision Making; Health; Prosocial Behavior

Research Summary

Overview

Over the last decade, technology companies like Amazon, Google, and Netflix have pioneered data-driven research and development processes centered on massive experimentation. However, as companies increase the breadth and scale of their experiments to millions of... View Details

04 May 2020
Research & Ideas

Predictions, Prophets, and Restarting Your Business

“Predictions are risky, especially about the future,” according to a popular expression. Still, business is inescapably about the future—that’s what managers’ decisions are about. In the current crisis, we have daily grand predictions... View Details

Keywords: by Frank V. Cespedes

11 Mar 2020
News

Making It Rain

companies to turn their sensors into weather data and created an app that can send alerts to people in flood-prone areas. Last year, ClimaCell predicted major floods in India—in Assam, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Gujarat, and... View Details

Keywords: Lisa Scanlon Mogolov

01 Mar 2011
News

Faculty Research Online

The valuation of forecasted cash flows can be an inaccurate process, especially when the forecasts are created by optimists who neglect to consider worst-case scenarios. In this working paper, Willard Prescott Smith Professor of Corporate Finance Richard Ruback lays... View Details

Keywords: Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools; Educational Services

19 Jan 2022
In Practice

7 Trends to Watch in 2022

As 2022 gets underway we asked our faculty to highlight some trends worth watching in the coming year. Ariel Stern: A new future for digital health care While 2020 and 2021 were years of rapid innovation and deployment of new health care technologies and delivery... View Details

Keywords: by HBS News

January 1972
Background Note

Note on Forecasting

By: Paul W. Marshall

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction

Citation

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July 1985
Background Note

Measuring Forecast Accuracy

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction

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Article

Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?

By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Robert L. Winkler

We consider two ways to aggregate expert opinions using simple averages: averaging probabilities and averaging quantiles. We examine analytical properties of these forecasts and compare their ability to harness the wisdom of the crowd. In terms of location, the two... View Details

Keywords: Probability Forecasts; Quantile Forecasts; Expert Combination; Linear Opinion Pooling; Forecasting and Prediction

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Article

The Wisdom of Competitive Crowds

By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Phillip E. Pfeifer

When several individuals are asked to forecast an uncertain quantity, they often face implicit or explicit incentives to be the most accurate. Despite the desire to elicit honest forecasts, such competition induces forecasters to report strategically and nontruthfully.... View Details

Keywords: Forecast; Forecasting and Prediction

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