Risk and Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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May 2020 (Revised March 2022)
Case

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and the Global Economy (A)

By: Alberto Cavallo and Christian Godwin

In April 2020, the world struggled to contain the exponential escalation of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Dozens of countries had imposed restrictions on travel, work, and social gatherings. A large share of the global population was under lockdowns and... View Details

May 2020
Article

Ancient Origins of the Global Variation in Economic Preferences

By: Anke Becker, Benjamin Enke and Armin Falk

This paper shows that contemporary population-level heterogeneity in risk aversion, time preference, altruism, positive reciprocity, negative reciprocity, and trust partly traces back to the structure of the migration patterns of our very early ancestors. To document... View Details

Keywords: Migration Patterns; Behavioral Economics; Preferences; Microeconomics; Demography; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; History; Global Range

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2021
Working Paper

Elusive Safety: The New Geography of Capital Flows and Risk

By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia, Ruth Judson and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr

A confidential dataset with industry-level disaggregation of U.S. cross-border claims and liabilities, shows U.S. securities to be increasingly intermediated by tax-haven-financial-centers (THFC) and less regulated funds. These securities are risky, in... View Details

Keywords: Tax Havens; Financial Centers; Geography Of Flows; Profit Shifting; Tax Avoidance; Risk; Safe Assets; Hetergeneous Firms; Endogenous Entry; Endogenous Monitoring; Regulatory Arbitrage; Assets; Safety; Risk and Uncertainty; Capital; Global Range

February 2020
Article

Being 'Good' or 'Good Enough': Prosocial Risk and the Structure of Moral Self-regard

By: Julian Zlatev, Daniella M. Kupor, Kristin Laurin and Dale T. Miller

The motivation to feel moral powerfully guides people’s prosocial behavior. We propose that people’s efforts to preserve their moral self-regard conform to a moral threshold model. This model predicts that people are primarily concerned with whether their... View Details

Keywords: Prosocial Behavior; Moral Sensibility; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior; Perception

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January 2020
Background Note

Climate Change in 2020: Implications for Business

By: Rebecca M. Henderson, Sophus A. Reinert and Mariana Oseguera

This note provides general information about climate change and its implications for business. Included is an overview of climate change science and a number of its impacts, including rising sea levels, changing weather patterns and extreme weather, pressure on water... View Details

January 2020
Case

A Tough Call: SEAL Team Leader in Kandahar (A)

By: George A. Riedel

The case, which is a disguised version of real events, is set in Kandahar, Afghanistan (2013) during the long running Afghan war. Lt. Paul Rickson, a Navy SEAL Platoon Commander, is leading a team of 30 U.S. and Afghan soldiers on a mission to clear hostile forces in... View Details

Keywords: War; Leadership; Risk and Uncertainty; Safety; Decision Choices and Conditions; Afghanistan

December 2019
Case

CME Group in 2019

By: José B. Alvarez, Forest Reinhardt and Natalie Kindred

Chicago-based CME Group is the world’s largest futures and options marketplace, with annual trading volume of over 4.8 billion contracts in 2018. This case is set in late 2019, as heightened perceptions of risk stemming from the U.S.-China trade war are driving record... View Details

Keywords: Financial Markets; Risk Management; Futures and Commodity Futures; Trade; Price; Competition; Risk and Uncertainty; Competitive Strategy; United States; China; Brazil

2020
Working Paper

Capital Regulation and Product Market Outcomes

By: Ishita Sen and David Humphry

We present evidence of product market adjustments and asset reorganizations from the largest ever shift in risk regulation in a developed insurance market. Using proprietary data on insurance risk exposures from the Bank of England, we develop a measure of regulatory... View Details

Keywords: Non-traditional-non-insurance; Risk Regulation; Product Market Concentration; Small Vs. Large Insurers; Insurance Risk Exposure; Insurance; Risk and Uncertainty; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms

November 2019 (Revised January 2025)
Case

Russia: A Drama In Three Acts

By: Rawi Abdelal, Rafael Di Tella, Galit Goldstein, Sogomon Tarontsi and Lavinia Teodorescu

The collapse of central authority in the Soviet Union in 1991 ushered in a period of revolutionary transformations for the states that emerged in its wake. The leaders of Russia, the USSR's successor, struggled to reestablish central authority while also seeking to... View Details

November 2019
Case

Edita: Making Choices in Uncertain Times

By: Caroline M. Elkins, Juan Alcácer, Alpana Thapar and Youssef Abdel Aal

After 15 years of steady growth and expansion, Edita, a leading Egyptian snack producer, faced a series of challenges in the wake of the Arab Spring. In January 2011, the Egyptian Revolution sparked political and economic turmoil that reflected the waves of protest and... View Details

Keywords: Decision Making; Developing Countries and Economies; Economy; Business or Company Management; Price; Crisis Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Distribution; Risk and Uncertainty; Business Strategy; Expansion; Currency; Food and Beverage Industry; Egypt; Africa; Middle East

October 2019
Case

Feeling Machines: Emotion AI at Affectiva

By: Shane Greenstein and John Masko

In 2016, Affectiva—a Boston-based emotion AI software company with a long track record of building emotion-sensing software for market research—had attempted to expand into new verticals by releasing a mobile software development kit (SDK) that downloaders could adapt... View Details

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Market Research; Business Model; Finance; Revenue; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; Market Entry and Exit; Applications and Software; AI and Machine Learning; Information Technology Industry; Auto Industry; United States

October 2019 (Revised April 2020)
Background Note

Note on Funding Deep Tech Startups

By: Karim Lakhani, Peter Barrett and Noubar Afeyan

This Background Note provides essential information on funding deep technologies—those technologies that were inherently capital intensive, time consuming, risky, and potentially disruptive. Both dilutive and non-dilutive sources of investment are highlighted, along... View Details

2021
Working Paper

Shareholder Activism and Firms' Voluntary Disclosure of Climate Change Risks

By: Caroline Flammer, Michael W. Toffel and Kala Viswanathan

This paper examines whether—in the absence of mandated disclosure requirements—shareholder activism can elicit greater disclosure of firms’ exposure to climate change risks. We find that environmental shareholder activism increases the voluntary disclosure of climate... View Details

Keywords: Shareholder Activism; Climate Risk; Corporate Accountability; Climate Change; Corporate Disclosure; Corporate Governance; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Business and Shareholder Relations; Risk and Uncertainty; Natural Environment; Environmental Sustainability; Financial Services Industry; United States

October 2019
Article

Does Political Uncertainty Increase External Financing Costs? Measuring the Electoral Premium in Syndicated Lending

By: Olivia S. Kim

This article investigates the impact of political uncertainty on contractual lending terms using a large sample of syndicated loans and a within-firm estimation approach to achieve identification. Firms pay 7 basis points (bps) more on loans originated when their... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Political Elections; Financing and Loans; Developing Countries and Economies

Article

Risk Attitudes and Personality Traits of Entrepreneurs and Venture Team Members

By: Sari Pekkala Kerr, William R. Kerr and Margaret Dalton

Personality distinctions between entrepreneurs, nonfounder CEOs/leaders, and inventor employees have received limited attention, especially in innovative settings where they are working together. We surveyed these groups, along with other employees of innovative firms,... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurs; Inventors; Innovation; Risk; Personal Characteristics; Innovation and Invention; Risk and Uncertainty; Attitudes

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June 2019
Teaching Note

CEWD: Closing the Skills Gap

By: William R. Kerr and Ted Smalley Bowen

Teaching Note for HBS No. 818-081. The teaching note presents background, case details, and teaching strategies, along with board plans and supporting graphics. View Details

June 2019
Article

Fraud Allegations and Government Contracting

By: Jonas Heese and Gerardo Pérez Cavazos

This paper examines whether fraud allegations affect firms’ contracting with the government. Using a dataset of whistleblower allegations brought under the False Claims Act against firms accused of defrauding the government, we find that federal agencies do not reduce... View Details

Keywords: Whistleblower; Fraud Allegations; False Claims Act; Government Contracting; Risk Allocation; Government and Politics; Contracts; Crime and Corruption; Risk and Uncertainty; Business and Government Relations

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May 2019 (Revised April 2021)
Background Note

Managing Talent Pipelines in the Future of Work

By: William R. Kerr, Joseph B. Fuller, Manjari Raman and Carl Kreitzberg

In the face of a rapidly-changing economy, organizations that wish to compete in the future of work must develop strategies for acquiring, retaining, and developing talent for their organizations. This primer reviews the major trends shaping jobs, workplaces, and... View Details

Keywords: Future Of Work; Talent and Talent Management; Experience and Expertise; Demographics; Labor; Problems and Challenges; Risk and Uncertainty; Quality; Supply Chain

May 2019
Case

Elon Musk's Big Bets Update, 2019

By: David B. Yoffie and Daniel Fisher

This short case provides an update to Elon Musk's strategy and tactical moves with Tesla, Solar City, and SpaceX from 2016-2019. View Details

2010
Article

Fretting About Modest Risks Is a Mistake

By: Matthew Rabin and Max Bazerman

Managers often engage in risk-averse behavior, and economists, decision analysts, and managers treat risk aversion as a preference. In many cases, acting in a risk-averse manner is a mistake, but managers can correct this mistake with greater reflection. This article... View Details

Keywords: Decision Biases; Risk Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Decision Making

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