Publications

October 2023
Teaching Note

Accounting for Loan Losses at JPMorgan Chase: Predicting Credit Costs

By: Jonas Heese and Jung Koo Kang

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 123-042. View Details

Purchase

November 2023
Article

Knowledge About the Source of Emotion Predicts Emotion-Regulation Attempts, Strategies, and Perceived Emotion-Regulation Success

By: Yael Millgram, Matthew K. Nock, David D. Bailey and Amit Goldenberg

People’s ability to regulate emotions is crucial to healthy emotional functioning. One overlooked aspect in emotion-regulation research is that knowledge about the source of emotions can vary across situations and individuals, which could impact people’s ability to... View Details

Keywords: Emotions; Personal Characteristics; Well-being

21 Oct 2015
Research & Ideas

How to Predict if a New Business Idea is Any Good

other once unlikely, now successful startups (LinkedIn similarly got more than 20 rejections back in 2003) seem to beg: How do you tell a good idea from a bad one? “With startups, especially high-growth startups, it’s extremely hard to View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding; Accommodations; Financial Services

2005
Article

Airline Security, the Failure of 9/11, and Predictable Surprises

By: M. Bazerman and M. Watkins

Keywords: National Security; Failure

fall 2004
Article

Predictable Negotiations: Should Have Seen This Coming (Book Excerpt)

By: M. Bazerman and Michael Watkins

Keywords: Negotiation; Books

2023
Working Paper

Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development

By: Daniel Yue, Paul Hamilton and Iavor Bojinov

Predictive model development is understudied despite its centrality in modern artificial intelligence and machine learning business applications. Although prior discussions highlight advances in methods (along the dimensions of data, computing power, and algorithms)... View Details

Keywords: Analytics and Data Science

SSRN

Predictive model development is understudied despite its importance to modern businesses. Although prior discussions highlight advances in methods (along the dimensions of data, computing power, and algorithms) as the primary driver of model quality, the value of... View Details

March 2013
Article

Misvaluing Innovation

By: Lauren Cohen, Karl Diether and Christopher Malloy

We demonstrate that a firm's ability to innovate is predictable, persistent, and relatively simple to compute, and yet the stock market ignores the implications of past successes when valuing future innovation. We show that two firms that invest the exact same in... View Details

Keywords: Innovation; Return Predictability; R＆D; Information; Forecasting and Prediction; Research and Development; Innovation and Invention

May 2018
Article

The Amount and Source of Millionaires' Wealth (Moderately) Predicts Their Happiness

By: Grant Edward Donnelly, Tianyi Zheng, Emily Haisley and Michael I. Norton

Two samples of more than 4,000 millionaires reveal two primary findings. First, only at high levels of wealth—in excess of $8 million (Study 1) and $10 million (Study 2)—are wealthier millionaires happier than millionaires with lower levels of wealth, though these... View Details

Keywords: Income; Well-being; Happiness; Wealth; Money; Attitudes; Situation or Environment

15 Aug 2016
Research & Ideas

Black Swans and Big Trends Can Ruin Anyone's Internet Prediction

investments are once again declining. Reasoning that today’s tech entrepreneurs and investors might value a history lesson, I’ve published Speed Trap as an ebook, which is downloadable for free in PDF format, and available in the iBooks Store for free and in the Kindle... View Details

Keywords: by Thomas R. Eisenmann; Technology

June 2023
Case

Accounting for Loan Losses at JPMorgan Chase: Predicting Credit Costs

By: Jonas Heese, Jung Koo Kang and James Weber

The case examines the accounting for loan losses at a large bank, how a bank sets its Allowance for Loan and Lease Losses (ALLL) on its financial statements. ALLL, and the rules that set them, determine when banks would and would not extend loans, which significantly... View Details

Keywords: Accounting Standards; Accrual Accounting; Financial Statements; Financial Reporting; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Banking Industry; United States

Educators

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1996
Other Unpublished Work

Testing for Structural Change in the Predictability of Asset Returns

By: Luis M. Viceira

10 Aug 2013 - 13 Aug 2013
Conference Presentation

Stock Market Prediction via Social Media: The Importance of Competitors

By: Frank Nagle

Karen Mills, the SBA Administrator under President Barack Obama, says the tea leaves suggest small business will be key to Biden’s economic agenda. View Details

22 Nov 2024
News

Will AI Kill Google? Past Predictions of Doom Were Totally Wrong.

August 2016
Article

The Role of (Dis)similarity in (Mis)predicting Others' Preferences

By: Kate Barasz, Tami Kim and Leslie K. John

Consumers readily indicate liking options that appear dissimilar—for example, enjoying both rustic lake vacations and chic city vacations or liking both scholarly documentary films and action-packed thrillers. However, when predicting other consumers’ tastes for the... View Details

Keywords: Perceived Similarity; Prediction Error; Preference Prediction; Self-other Difference; Social Inference; Cognition and Thinking; Perception; Forecasting and Prediction

2023
Chapter

Analyzing Human Decisions and Machine Predictions in Bail Decision Making

By: Jon Kleinberg, Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig and Sendhil Mullainathan

BOOK ABSTRACT: Oriented toward the introductory student, The Inequality Reader is the essential textbook for today's undergraduate courses. The editors have assembled the most important classic and contemporary readings about how poverty and inequality are... View Details

Keywords: Equality and Inequality

9 May 2013 - 11 May 2013
Conference Presentation

Stock Market Prediction via Social Media: The Importance of Competitors

By: Frank Nagle