Publications

September – October 2007
Article

Trading Patterns and Excess Comovement of Stock Returns

By: Robin Greenwood and Nathan Sosner

n April 2000, 30 stocks were replaced in the Nikkei 225 Index. The unusually broad index redefinition allowed for a study of the effects of index-linked trading on the excess comovement of stock returns. A large increase occurred in the correlation of trading volume of... View Details

Keywords: Stocks; Investment Return; Market Transactions; Mathematical Methods

Research Summary

Analyst Disagreement, Forecast Bias and Stock Returns

We present evidence of inefficient information processing in equity markets by documenting that biases in analysts' earnings forecasts are reflected in stock prices. In particular, investors fail to account for analysts' tendency to withhold negative views and to issue... View Details

spring 2008
Article

Cost Reductions, Cost Padding and Stock Market Prices: The Chilean Experience with Price Cap Regulation

By: Rafael Di Tella and Alexander Dyck

Keywords: Cost; Price; Stocks; Markets; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Chile

09 Jun 2020
Working Paper Summaries

Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time

Keywords: by Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland, and Peter K. Schott

August 2007 (Revised June 2020)
Case

Trouble with a Bubble

By: Tom Nicholas

Examines technology, firm performance, and the stock market during the 1929 Great Crash and the Great Depression of the 1930s. The 1920s was an extraordinary period of technological progress marked by a strong run-up in stock market prices. Firms invested heavily in... View Details

Keywords: Bubble; Stock Market; Great Depression; Irving Fisher; Information Technology; Organizational Change and Adaptation; History; Financial Markets; Performance; Labor and Management Relations; Equity; Financial Crisis; Innovation and Invention; United States

2003
Article

Confirming Management Earnings Forecasts, Earnings Uncertainty, and Stock Returns

By: Michael B. Clement, Richard Frankel and Jeffrey Miller

In this study we examine the association among confirming management forecasts, stock prices, and analyst expectations. Confirming management forecasts are voluntary disclosures by management that corroborate existing market expectations about future earnings. This... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Corporate Disclosure; Price; Stocks; Investment Return

2021
Working Paper

Going by the Book: Valuation Ratios and Stock Returns

By: Ki-Soon Choi, Eric So and Charles C.Y. Wang

We study the use of firms’ book-to-market ratios (B/M) in value investing and its implications for comovements in firms’ stock returns and trading volumes. We show B/M has become increasingly detached from common alternative valuation ratios over time while also... View Details

Keywords: Valuation Ratios; Book-to-market Ratios; Investment Return; Investment; Decision Making

SSRN

2002
Working Paper

Cost Reductions, Cost Padding and Stock Market Prices: The Chilean Experience with Price Cap Regulation

By: Rafael Di Tella and Alexander Dyck

Video

What's Behind China's Wild Stock Ride?

October 2000
Article

The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

The share of equity issues in total new equity and debt issues is a strong predictor of U.S. stock market returns between 1928 and 1997. In particular, firms issue more equity than debt just before periods of low market returns. The equity share in new issues has... View Details

Keywords: Equity; Borrowing and Debt; Stocks; Markets; Debt Securities; Forecasting and Prediction; Accounting Industry; United States

2025
Working Paper

Government-Brokerage Analysts and Market Stabilization: Evidence from China

By: Sheng Cao, Xianjie He, Charles C.Y. Wang and Huifang Yin

We show analysts at government-controlled brokerage firms serve as a market stabilization tool in China. Using earnings forecasts from 2005–2019, we find government-brokerage analysts issue relatively more optimistic—yet less accurate and timely—forecasts during... View Details

Keywords: Sell-side Analysts; Forecast Optimism; Forecast Accuracy; Government Incentives; Market Stabilization; Government Ownership; Coordinated Economies; Stocks; Forecasting and Prediction; Business and Government Relations; Emerging Markets

SSRN

August 1987 (Revised December 1998)
Background Note

Capital Market Myopia

By: William A. Sahlman and Howard H. Stevenson

Focuses attention on a phenomenon we call capital market myopia, a situation in which participants in the capital markets ignore the logical implications of their individual investment decisions. Viewed in isolation, each decision seems to make sense. When taken... View Details

Keywords: Capital Markets

03 Feb 2024
News

What Walmart’s New Focus on Employee Stock Means for the Labor Market and Average American Household

31 Mar 2018
Working Paper Summaries

Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach

Keywords: by Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle, and Charles C.Y. Wang; Financial Services; Accounting

January 1993 (Revised August 2003)
Case

Sally Jameson: Valuing Stock Options in a Compensation Package

By: Peter Tufano

Details a thinly disguised situation faced by a recent Harvard MBA graduate who was forced by a prospective employer to place a dollar value on a grant of stock options. There are two objectives: 1) Serves as an introduction to option valuation, in which students have... View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Stock Options; Compensation and Benefits

December 2004
Article

Market Valuation and Merger Waves

By: Matthew Rhodes-Kropf and S. Viswanathan

Does valuation affect mergers? Data suggest that periods of stock merger activity are correlated with high market valuations. The naïve explanation that overvalued bidders wish to use stock is incomplete because targets should not be eager to accept stock. However, we... View Details

Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Valuation; Market Transactions; Value; Cash; Stocks; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Bids and Bidding; Market Design; Stock Shares; Accounting Audits; Performance Evaluation

Article

Risk and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

By: Mark Seasholes, Radu Burlacu, Patrice Fontaine and Sonia Jimenez-Garces

This paper mathematically transforms unobservable rational expectation equilibrium model parameters (information precision and supply uncertainty) into a single variable that is correlated with expected returns and that can be estimated with recently observed data. Our... View Details

Keywords: Risk Premiums; Cross-sectional Asset Pricing; REE Models; Risk and Uncertainty; Asset Pricing; Investment Return

April 2002
Case

Sally Jameson: Valuing Stock Options in a Compensation Package (Abridged)

By: Peter Tufano

Details a thinly disguised situation facing a recent Harvard MBA graduate who was forced by a prospective employer to place a dollar value on a grant of stock options. There are two objectives: 1) Serves as an introduction to option valuation, in which students have an... View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Stock Options; Compensation and Benefits