Publications

September 2023 (Revised October 2024)
Case

Forecasting Climate Risks: Aviva’s Climate Calculus

By: Mark Egan and Peter Tufano

In late 2021, Ben Carr, Director of Analytics and Capital Modeling at Aviva Plc (Aviva)—a leading insurer with core operations in the UK, Ireland and Canada,—was preparing for an upcoming presentation before the company's board which included its CEO, Amanda Blanc,... View Details

Keywords: Climate Risk; Climate Finance; Forecasting; Insurance; Risk Measurement; Climate Change; Risk Management; Forecasting and Prediction; Insurance Industry; United States

2021
Article

Does Fair Ranking Improve Minority Outcomes? Understanding the Interplay of Human and Algorithmic Biases in Online Hiring

By: Tom Sühr, Sophie Hilgard and Himabindu Lakkaraju

Ranking algorithms are being widely employed in various online hiring platforms including LinkedIn, TaskRabbit, and Fiverr. Prior research has demonstrated that ranking algorithms employed by these platforms are prone to a variety of undesirable biases, leading to the... View Details

13 Feb 2024
Research & Ideas

Breaking Through the Self-Doubt That Keeps Talented Women from Leading

women are more hesitant to dive in, a scenario that likely contributes to a gender gap in wages and positions that has persisted for decades. In 2023, the World Economic Forum declared that despite slow and steady gains in the proportion... View Details

Keywords: by Kara Baskin

March 2025
Article

Is Personal Identity Intransitive?

By: J. De Freitas and L. J. Rips

There has been a call for a potentially revolutionary change to our existing understanding of the psychological concept of personal identity. Apparently, people can psychologically represent people, including themselves, as multiple individuals at the same time. Here... View Details

Keywords: Identity; Judgments

Find at Harvard

2023
Working Paper

The Customer Journey as a Source of Information

By: Nicolas Padilla, Eva Ascarza and Oded Netzer

In the face of heightened data privacy concerns and diminishing third-party data access, firms are placing increased emphasis on first-party data (1PD) for marketing decisions. However, in environments with infrequent purchases, reliance on past purchases 1PD... View Details

Keywords: Customer Journey; Privacy; Consumer Behavior; Analytics and Data Science; AI and Machine Learning; Customer Focus and Relationships

2020
Working Paper

Strategic Foresight as Dynamic Capability: A New Lens on Knightian Uncertainty

By: J. Peter Scoblic

This paper proposes to treat strategic foresight as a dynamic capability, providing a new theoretical lens on managerial judgment. Formulating strategy under uncertainty is a central challenge facing the modern firm. Analogy is thought to help managers make sense of... View Details

Keywords: Foresight; Dynamic Capabilities; Managerial Judgment; Risk and Uncertainty; Management; Strategy

July 2014
Article

Diasporas and Outsourcing: Evidence from oDesk and India

By: Ejaz Ghani, William R. Kerr and Christopher Stanton

This study examines the role of the Indian diaspora in the outsourcing of work to India. Our data are taken from oDesk, the world's largest online platform for outsourced contracts, where India is the largest country in terms of contract volume. We use an ethnic name... View Details

Keywords: Diaspora; Outsourcing; oDesk; Networks; Job Cuts and Outsourcing; Diasporas; Internet and the Web; Ethnicity; Service Industry; South Asia; India

Article

Everybody Else Is Doing It: Exploring Social Transmission of Lying Behavior

By: Heather E. Mann, Ximena Garcia-Rada, Daniel Houser and Dan Ariely

Lying is a common occurrence in social interactions, but what predicts whether an individual will tell a lie? While previous studies have focused on personality factors, here we asked whether lying tendencies might be transmitted through social networks. Using an... View Details

Keywords: Behavior; Values and Beliefs; Social and Collaborative Networks

April 2012 (Revised August 2013)
Case

General Motors Technical Center India – Powertrain Engineering

By: Willy Shih, William Jurist, Brian McIntosh and Helen Wang

Prabjot Nanua was proud of the growing capabilities of the General Motors Technical Center India Powertrain Engineering group that he oversaw. Since 2003, engineers there had expanded the center's capabilities, developing a reputation within GM for completing... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Business Headquarters; Research and Development; Business Strategy; Manufacturing Industry; Auto Industry; India

June 2006
Case

Riding with the Blackhorse (A)

By: John R. Wells, Sean Hazlett and Niladri Mukhopadhyay

Colonel Moore reflects on his command of the 11th Armored Cavalry Regiment and its preparation of the United States Army for 21st century adversaries. During his command, Colonel Moore had transformed the regiment from a unit focused on providing conventional... View Details

Keywords: Transformation; Competency and Skills; Training; Strategic Planning; Adaptation; Alignment; Public Administration Industry; United States

April 2011 (Revised April 2011)
Exercise

Raptor Oil Company: An Exercise

The exercise, which adapts a famous experiment by experimental psychologist Thomas Gilovich, is designed to show both the ubiquity of analogy or associative thinking more generally and its potential perils. Students are presented with a scenario in which an oil company... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Cognition and Thinking; Prejudice and Bias; Strategy

Find at Harvard

08 Jun 2012
Working Paper Summaries

Location Choices Under Strategic Interactions

Keywords: by Juan Alcacer

April 2023
Article

Perceptions Related to Engaging in Non-driving Activities in an Automated Vehicle While Commuting: A Text Mining Approach

By: Yilun Xing, Linda Ng Boyle, Raffaella Sadun, John D. Lee, Orit Shaer and Andrew Kun

Automated vehicles (AVs) offer human operators the opportunity to participate in non-driving activities while on the move. In this study, we examined and compared drivers' perception of non-driving activities in two driving modes: highly AVs in the future and current... View Details

Keywords: Perception; Behavior; Surveys; Auto Industry

2011
Article

Scalable Detection of Anomalous Patterns With Connectivity Constraints

By: Skyler Speakman, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill

We present GraphScan, a novel method for detecting arbitrarily shaped connected clusters in graph or network data. Given a graph structure, data observed at each node, and a score function defining the anomalousness of a set of nodes, GraphScan can efficiently and... View Details

Keywords: Biosurveillance; Event Detection; Graph Mining; Scan Statistics; Spatial Scan Statistic

January 2015 (Revised October 2016)
Case

onefinestay: Building a Luxury Experience in the Sharing Economy

By: Jill Avery, Anat Keinan and Liz Kind

onefinestay was a two-sided marketplace that offered high-end home rentals to travelers who sought a more authentic and local experience than a typical upscale hotel might provide. After five years of rapid growth, it was time to do a comprehensive analysis of the... View Details

2023
Working Paper

Deglobalization and Entrepreneurial Investment: The Natural Experiment of Brexit

By: Elisa Alvarez-Garrido and Juan Alcácer

We seek to gain insight into the consequences of deglobalization on entrepreneurial investment by analyzing an instance of economic disintegration: the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union. Brexit is not only a unique empirical opportunity, a natural... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurial Finance; International Relations; Trade; Disruption; Globalized Economies and Regions; United Kingdom

2010
Working Paper

Substitution Patterns of the Random Coefficients Logit

By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Andrew Ainslie

Previous research suggests that the random coefficients logit is a highly flexible model that overcomes the problems of the homogeneous logit by allowing for differences in tastes across individuals. The purpose of this paper is to show that this is not true. We prove... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Mathematical Methods; Behavior; Prejudice and Bias

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