Publications

Research Summary

Financial Risk Management

By: Richard F. Meyer

Richard F. Meyer is exploring the theory and practice of financial risk management in corporations worldwide. Three primary objectives of his research are: to understand the underlying sources of risk and corporations' exposure to them; to identify appropriate,... View Details

2024
Conference Paper

Quantifying Uncertainty in Natural Language Explanations of Large Language Models

By: Himabindu Lakkaraju, Sree Harsha Tanneru and Chirag Agarwal

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used as powerful tools for several high-stakes natural language processing (NLP) applications. Recent prompting works claim to elicit intermediate reasoning steps and key tokens that serve as proxy explanations for LLM... View Details

Keywords: Large Language Model; AI and Machine Learning

Article

Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability

By: Dylan Slack, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh and Himabindu Lakkaraju

As black box explanations are increasingly being employed to establish model credibility in high stakes settings, it is important to ensure that these explanations are accurate and reliable. However, prior work demonstrates that explanations generated by... View Details

Keywords: Black Box Explanations; Bayesian Modeling; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; Information Technology

21 Aug 2015
Working Paper Summaries

Banks’ Risk Exposures

Keywords: by Juliane Begenau; Accounting; Banking; Financial Services

January 2014
Article

Self-reported Ethical Risk Taking Tendencies Predict Actual Dishonesty

By: Liora Zimerman, Shaul Shalvi and Yoella Bereby-Meyer

Are people honest about the extent to which they engage in unethical behaviors? We report an experiment examining the relation between self-reported risky unethical tendencies and actual dishonest behavior. Participants’ self-reported risk taking tendencies were... View Details

Keywords: DOSPERT; Risk Taking; Honesty; Lying; Dishonesty; Unethical Behavior; Moral Sensibility; Cognition and Thinking

April 2024
Article

Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads

By: Samuel G. Hanson, Aytek Malkhozov and Gyuri Venter

We develop and test a model in which swap spreads are determined by end users' demand for and constrained intermediaries’ supply of long-term interest rate swaps. Swap spreads reflect compensation both for using scarce intermediary capital and for bearing convergence... View Details

Keywords: Swap Spreads; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Interest Rates; Risk and Uncertainty; Volatility

Research Summary

Risk Management Systems

By: Robert S. Kaplan

Along with Assistant Professor Anette Mikes and Associate Professor Dennis Campbell, Kaplan continues to explore how companies can implement risk management processes that reflect their strategies. The research involves case writing, teaching in executive program, and... View Details

March 2001
Background Note

Real Options Valuation when Multiple Sources of Uncertainty Exist

This case describes how multiple sources of uncertainty can be incorporated into a real-options-based analysis. It works through an example of a two-stage problem where a company has both an option to explore and an option to develop oil reserves. View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Opportunities; Valuation

Educators

Purchase

Research Summary

Measuring and Managing Risk in the Supply Chain

Understanding risk factors associated with supply chain decisions and how to appropriately model and quantify those factors. View Details

2009
Chapter

Government as Risk Manager

By: Tom Baker and David Moss

We explain the four basic ways to manage risk: prevention, risk shifting, risk spreading, and loss control. We set out five principles of effective government risk management gleaned from extensive historical study: (1) link responsibility and control, (2) manage moral... View Details

Keywords: Government and Politics; Risk Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Safety

2011
Article

Regulatory Uncertainty and Corporate Responses to Environmental Protection in China

By: Christopher Marquis, Jianjun Zhang and Yanhua Zhou

We develop a framework to analyze the closing gap between regulation and enforcement of environmental protection in China and present a number of resulting implications for doing business there. We identify three major dimensions that characterize change in regulatory... View Details

Keywords: Framework; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Law Enforcement; Growth and Development Strategy; Emerging Markets; Business Ventures; Alignment; Risk and Uncertainty; Natural Environment; Motivation and Incentives; Management Practices and Processes; Competitive Strategy; China

2009
Working Paper

Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect

By: Amir E. Khandani, Andrew W. Lo and Robert C. Merton

The confluence of three trends in the U.S. residential housing market—rising home prices, declining interest rates, and near-frictionless refinancing opportunities—led to vastly increased systemic risk in the financial system. Individually, each of these trends is... View Details

Keywords: Housing; Mortgages; Risk and Uncertainty; Value; Mathematical Methods; Real Estate Industry; United States

03 Jun 2016
Working Paper Summaries

The Risk Anomaly Tradeoff of Leverage

Keywords: by Malcolm Baker, Mathias F. Hoeyer, and Jeffrey Wurgler

January 1991 (Revised June 1993)
Case

Decision Analysis and the Risk Profile

By: Paul A. Vatter

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Decision Making

2009
Working Paper

Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect

By: Amir E. Khandani, Andrew W. Lo and Robert C. Merton

The confluence of three trends in the U.S. residential housing market-rising home prices, declining interest rates, and near-frictionless refinancing opportunities-led to vastly increased systemic risk in the financial system. Individually, each of these trends is... View Details

Keywords: Equity; Mortgages; Interest Rates; Price; Housing; Risk and Uncertainty; United States

Article

Risk and the Value Line Contest

By: Robert S. Kaplan and Roman L. Weil

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Value

April 2006
Background Note

Legal Aspects of Management: Anticipating and Managing Risk

Describes the sixth and final module of the Harvard Business School MBA second-year elective course Legal Aspects of Management. This module deals with the way firms should approach business risks in order to avoid legal liability and how firms can use contracts to... View Details

Keywords: Risk Management; Contracts; Legal Liability