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Publications

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    • All HBS Web  (929)
      • Faculty Publications  (147)

      Risk MeasurementRemove Risk Measurement →

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      • 2008
      • Working Paper

      New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability

      By: Dale F. Gray, Robert C. Merton and Zvi Bodie
      This paper proposes a new approach to improve the way central banks can analyze and manage the financial risks of a national economy. It is based on the modern theory and practice of contingent claims analysis (CCA), which is successfully used today at the level of... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics; Central Banking; Risk Management
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      Gray, Dale F., Robert C. Merton, and Zvi Bodie. "New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 09-015, August 2008. (Revised.)
      • January 2008
      • Background Note

      Measuring Investment Performance

      By: Andre F. Perold and Kenneth A. Froot
      Examines various approaches to measuring investment performance. The approaches include the use of risk exposure and the Sharpe and Information Ratios. Applies the approaches to a variety of mutual funds to demonstrate the effect of using different metrics to measure... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Management; Investment; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Measurement and Metrics; Performance; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Perold, Andre F., and Kenneth A. Froot. "Measuring Investment Performance." Harvard Business School Background Note 208-110, January 2008.
      • 2007
      • Working Paper

      New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability

      By: Dale F. Gray, Robert C. Merton and Zvi Bodie
      This paper proposes a new approach to improve the way central banks can analyze and manage the financial risks of a national economy. It is based on the modern theory and practice of contingent claims analysis (CCA), which is successfully used today at the level of... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics; Central Banking; Risk Management
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      Gray, Dale F., Robert C. Merton, and Zvi Bodie. "New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 13607, November 2007.
      • Fourth Quarter 2007
      • Article

      Contingent Claims Approach to Measuring and Managing Sovereign Credit Risk

      By: Dale . F. Gray, Robert C. Merton and Zvi Bodie
      This paper proposes a new approach to measure, analyze, and manage sovereign risk based on the theory and practice of modern contingent claims analysis (CCA). The paper provides a new framework for adapting the CCA model to the sovereign balance sheet in a way that can... View Details
      Keywords: Credit; Investment; Sovereign Finance; Risk Management; Emerging Markets; Market Transactions; Mathematical Methods; Valuation
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      Gray, Dale . F., Robert C. Merton, and Zvi Bodie. "Contingent Claims Approach to Measuring and Managing Sovereign Credit Risk." Special Issue on Credit Analysis. Journal of Investment Management 5, no. 4 (Fourth Quarter 2007): 5–28.
      • February 2007 (Revised October 2007)
      • Case

      BASIX

      By: Shawn A. Cole and Peter Tufano
      BASIX, an Indian microfinance corporation, must decide whether to continue to sell weather insurance to its clients. A brand-new financial product, weather insurance pays if measured rainfall during the growing season falls below a pre-specified limit. Mr. Sattaiah,... View Details
      Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Microfinance; Insurance; Risk Management; Banking Industry; India
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      Cole, Shawn A., and Peter Tufano. "BASIX." Harvard Business School Case 207-099, February 2007. (Revised October 2007.)
      • June 2005 (Revised January 2007)
      • Case

      Equator Principles, The: An Industry Approach to Managing Environmental and Social Risks

      By: Benjamin C. Esty, Carin-Isabel Knoop and Aldo Sesia
      In June 2003, 10 leading international banks adopted new voluntary guidelines, called the Equator Principles, to promote sustainable development in project finance. In recent years, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) had raised issues about the lenders'... View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Competition; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Social Issues; Environmental Sustainability; Policy; Project Finance; Standards; Projects; Commercial Banking; Non-Governmental Organizations
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      Esty, Benjamin C., Carin-Isabel Knoop, and Aldo Sesia. "Equator Principles, The: An Industry Approach to Managing Environmental and Social Risks." Harvard Business School Case 205-114, June 2005. (Revised January 2007.)
      • January 2005 (Revised October 2005)
      • Background Note

      Standard & Poor's Sovereign Credit Ratings: Scales and Process

      By: Rawi E. Abdelal and Christopher Bruner
      Describes Standard & Poor's sovereign credit ratings scales and the credit rating process. In particular, describes the role and function of the rating committee and the analytical categories considered in arriving at a final sovereign credit rating. View Details
      Keywords: Financial Markets; Credit; Bonds; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Services Industry
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      Abdelal, Rawi E., and Christopher Bruner. "Standard & Poor's Sovereign Credit Ratings: Scales and Process." Harvard Business School Background Note 705-027, January 2005. (Revised October 2005.)
      • September 2004
      • Article

      Trust in Agency

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell
      Existing models of the principal-agent relationship assume the agent works only under extrinsic incentives. However, many observed agency contracts take the form of a fixed payment. For such contracts to succeed, the principal must trust the agent to work in the... View Details
      Keywords: Trust; Agency Theory; Relationships; Behavior; Motivation and Incentives; Contracts; Business Model; Emotions; Forecasting and Prediction; Ethics; Standards; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon. "Trust in Agency." Journal of Economics & Management Strategy 13, no. 3 (September 2004): 375–404.
      • March 2003
      • Case

      Insurer of Last Resort? The Federal Financial Response to September 11

      By: David A. Moss and Sarah A. Brennan
      Examines the federal financial response to September 11, 2001: the airline bailout, the victim compensation fund, emergency aid to New York and Washington, and terrorism reinsurance. Less than two weeks after the attacks, the government had committed almost $40 billion... View Details
      Keywords: Business and Government Relations; Insurance; Risk Management; United States
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      Moss, David A., and Sarah A. Brennan. "Insurer of Last Resort? The Federal Financial Response to September 11." Harvard Business School Case 703-041, March 2003.
      • December 2002 (Revised January 2004)
      • Case

      Basel II: Assessing the Default and Loss Characteristics of Project Finance Loans (A)

      By: Benjamin C. Esty and Aldo Sesia
      In June 1999, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision announced plans to revise the capital standards for banks. The Basel Committee believed that project loans were significantly riskier than corporate loans and, therefore, warranted higher capital charges under... View Details
      Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Project Finance; Financing and Loans; Projects; Standards; Banks and Banking; Banking Industry
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      Esty, Benjamin C., and Aldo Sesia. "Basel II: Assessing the Default and Loss Characteristics of Project Finance Loans (A)." Harvard Business School Case 203-035, December 2002. (Revised January 2004.)
      • April 2002
      • Article

      Limited Arbitrage in Mergers and Acquisitions

      By: Malcolm Baker and Serkan Savasoglu
      A diversified portfolio of risk arbitrage positions produces an abnormal return of 0.6-0.9% per month over the period from 1981 to 1996. We trace these profits to practical limits on risk arbitrage. In our model of risk arbitrage, arbitrageurs' risk-bearing capacity... View Details
      Keywords: Arbitrage; Market Efficiency; Mergers and Acquisitions; Profit; Risk and Uncertainty; Corporate Strategy; Capital; Banking Industry
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      Baker, Malcolm, and Serkan Savasoglu. "Limited Arbitrage in Mergers and Acquisitions." Journal of Financial Economics 64, no. 1 (April 2002): 91–116.
      • December 2000 (Revised February 2007)
      • Case

      Achieving Customer Satisfaction at Pizza Hut (A)

      By: V.G. Narayanan and Preeti Choudhary
      Describes how Pizza Hut measures and monitors customer satisfaction, customer complaints, and the quality of its retail locations. View Details
      Keywords: Customer Satisfaction; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Management Systems; Risk Management; Franchise Ownership; Performance Evaluation; Problems and Challenges; Quality; Food and Beverage Industry; Service Industry
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      Narayanan, V.G., and Preeti Choudhary. "Achieving Customer Satisfaction at Pizza Hut (A)." Harvard Business School Case 101-006, December 2000. (Revised February 2007.)
      • March 1999 (Revised April 1999)
      • Case

      Environmental Risk Management at Chevron Corporation

      By: Forest L. Reinhardt, Monica M Mandelli and Jennifer Burns
      Chevron Corp., headquartered in San Francisco, manages a worldwide, vertically integrated value chain from the oil well to the gasoline station. Mishandling of oil at any stage of production can damage the natural environment, human health, corporate profitability, or... View Details
      Keywords: Risk Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Environmental Sustainability; Energy Generation; Supply Chain Management; Metals and Minerals; Management Systems; Management Teams; Trade; Vertical Integration; Energy Industry; Mining Industry
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      Reinhardt, Forest L., Monica M Mandelli, and Jennifer Burns. "Environmental Risk Management at Chevron Corporation." Harvard Business School Case 799-062, March 1999. (Revised April 1999.)
      • May 1998 (Revised February 2007)
      • Background Note

      Measuring Mutual Fund Performance

      By: Andre F. Perold and Markus Mullarkey
      Examines various approaches to measuring mutual fund performance. The approaches include the use of risk exposure and the Sharpe Ratio, as well as the Morningstar star system for rating mutual funds. Applies the approaches to a variety of mutual funds to demonstrate... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Funds; Performance
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      Perold, Andre F., and Markus Mullarkey. "Measuring Mutual Fund Performance." Harvard Business School Background Note 298-139, May 1998. (Revised February 2007.)
      • 1996
      • Chapter

      Measuring Risk and Return for Portfolios

      By: D. E. Bell
      Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics
      Citation
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      Bell, D. E. "Measuring Risk and Return for Portfolios." In Wise Choices: Decisions, Games, and Negotiations, edited by Richard Zeckhauser, Ralph Keeney, and James Sebenius. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press, 1996.
      • March 1994 (Revised September 1995)
      • Case

      Enron Gas Services

      By: Peter Tufano
      The CEO of Enron Gas Services (EGS), a subsidiary of the largest U.S. integrated natural gas firm, considers the risks and opportunities of selling a variety of natural gas derivatives, both embedded in gas delivery contracts and as free-standing financial contracts.... View Details
      Keywords: Risk Management; Energy Sources; Financial Services Industry; Energy Industry
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      Tufano, Peter, and Sanjay Bhatnagar. "Enron Gas Services." Harvard Business School Case 294-076, March 1994. (Revised September 1995.)
      • 1977
      • Working Paper

      Mitigating Demographic Risk Through Social Insurance

      By: Jerry R. Green
      A two-period lifetime overlapping generations growth model is used to evaluate the possibility that social insurance can effectively offset economic risks associated with uncertainty about the rate of population growth. Crude measures of the seriousness of this type of... View Details
      Keywords: Social Insurance; Econometric Models; Public Sector; Government Administration; Policy; Human Needs; Social Issues; Risk and Uncertainty
      Citation
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      Green, Jerry R. "Mitigating Demographic Risk Through Social Insurance." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 215, November 1977.
      • Teaching Interest

      Business Opportunties in Climate Adaptation

      By: John D. Macomber

      This is a Short Intensive Program or SIP at Harvard Business School.  It’s an optional student offering prior to the formal start of the Spring semester the following week.  SIPs tend to cover new material on current topics, to be less formal than the HBS Case Study... View Details

      Keywords: Resilience; Climate Risk; Climate Impact; Fire Protection; Insurance Risk Exposure; Hedge Fund; Public Health; Public Health Measures; Climate Change; Adaptation; Infrastructure; Real Estate Industry; Transportation Industry; Insurance Industry; United States; Africa; Latin America
      • Forthcoming
      • Article

      Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation and Beliefs

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Giovanni Burro, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
      How do people form beliefs about novel risks, with which they have little or no experience? Motivated by survey data on beliefs about Covid we collected in 2020, we build a model based on the psychology of selective memory. When a person thinks about an event,... View Details
      Keywords: Expectations; Memory; COVID-19 Pandemic; Risk and Uncertainty; Cognition and Thinking
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Giovanni Burro, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation and Beliefs." Review of Economic Studies (forthcoming). (Pre-published online June 27, 2024.)
      • Research Summary

      Mastering Strategy Execution

      By: Robert Simons

      Professor Robert Simons’ research encompasses three areas of management accountability that are the foundation for successful strategy execution: organization design, performance measurement and control, and risk management. In addition, Simons is interested in the... View Details

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