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January 2025
Technical Note

AI vs Human: Analyzing Acceptable Error Rates Using the Confusion Matrix

By: Tsedal Neeley and Tim Englehart

This technical note introduces the confusion matrix as a foundational tool in artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) for assessing the performance of classification models, focusing on their reliability for decision-making. A confusion matrix... View Details

Keywords: Reliability; Confusion Matrix; AI and Machine Learning; Decision Making; Measurement and Metrics; Performance

February 2014
Article

Gender Differences in Willingness to Guess

By: Katherine Baldiga Coffman

We present the results of an experiment that explores whether women are less willing than men to guess on multiple-choice tests. Our test consists of practice questions from SAT II subject tests; we vary whether a penalty is imposed for a wrong answer and the salience... View Details

Keywords: Behavioral Decision Making; Microeconomic Behavior; Education Systems; Behavior; Decision Choices and Conditions; Gender; Economics

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2003
Book

Profits You Can Trust: Spotting and Surviving Accounting Landmines

By: H. David Sherman, S. David Young and Harris Collingwood

Profits You Can Trust gives managers, directors, lenders, audit partners and analysts a clear framework to demystify global financial reporting in a market fraught with danger. Filled with provocative and enlightening examples, it offers a fresh perspective and clear... View Details

Keywords: Accounting; Corporate Finance; Economics; Financial Reporting

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July 2024
Article

Acceptance of Automated Vehicles Is Lower for Self than Others

By: Stuti Agarwal, Julian De Freitas, Anya Ragnhildstveit and Carey K. Morewedge

Road traffic accidents are the leading cause of death worldwide for people aged 2–59. Nearly all deaths are due to human error. Automated vehicles could reduce mortality risks, traffic congestion, and air pollution of human-driven vehicles. However, their adoption... View Details

Keywords: Transportation; Risk and Uncertainty; Technology Adoption; Prejudice and Bias

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Spring 2024
Article

The Evolution of Banking in the 21st Century: Evidence and Regulatory Implications

By: Samuel Gregory Hanson, Victoria Ivashina, Laura Nicolae, Jeremy C. Stein, Adi Sunderam and Daniel K. Tarullo

As revealed by the failures of three regional banks in the spring of 2023, bank runs are not a thing of the past. To inform the ongoing discussion of the appropriate regulatory response, we examine trends in the banking industry over the last twenty-five years. On the... View Details

Keywords: Financial Instruments; Financial Crisis; Assets; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Financial Condition; Banking Industry

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11 Dec 2012
First Look

First Look: Dec. 11

of bank leverage and risk exposures contributes to a form of systemic risk. We compute bank exposures to system-wide deleveraging, as well as the spillover of a single bank's deleveraging onto other banks. We show how our model can be... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

17 Sep 2024
HBS Case

The Climate Targets Leaders Need to Know as Regulations Loom

vocabulary of decarbonization.” And the US Securities and Exchange Commission adopted new rules recently that will require major US publicly-listed companies to share on a yearly basis their climate risks and their greenhouse gas... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne

November 2008 (Revised August 2011)
Case

UnME Jeans: Branding in Web 2.0

By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Jill Avery

This case introduces emerging Web 2.0 social media in virtual worlds, social networking sites, and video-sharing sites and encourages students to explore the opportunities and risks they present for brands. The case allows students to grapple with the strategic and... View Details

Keywords: Digital Marketing; Brands and Branding; Marketing Communications; Marketing Strategy; Consumer Behavior; Risk and Uncertainty; Social and Collaborative Networks; Internet and the Web; Apparel and Accessories Industry

January 2020
Case

A Tough Call: SEAL Team Leader in Kandahar (A)

By: George A. Riedel

The case, which is a disguised version of real events, is set in Kandahar, Afghanistan (2013) during the long running Afghan war. Lt. Paul Rickson, a Navy SEAL Platoon Commander, is leading a team of 30 U.S. and Afghan soldiers on a mission to clear hostile forces in... View Details

Keywords: War; Leadership; Risk and Uncertainty; Safety; Decision Choices and Conditions; Afghanistan

Article

Managing the Unknowable: The Effectiveness of Early-stage Investor Gut Feel in Entrepreneurial Investment Decisions

By: Laura Huang and Jone L. Pearce

Using an inductive theory-development study, a field experiment, and a longitudinal field test, we examine early-stage entrepreneurial investment decision making under conditions of extreme uncertainty. Building on existing literature on decision making and risk in... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Risk and Uncertainty; Decision Making; Emotions; Performance Effectiveness

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October 1998
Background Note

Welfare-to-Work Information and Statistics

By: Rosabeth M. Kanter and Ellen Pruyne

Summarizes information on the national issue of hiring people from the welfare roles. Organized by topics relevant to business, this note reviews research findings and statistics and poses questions to assist business decision-makers in assessing a company's current or... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Recruitment; Risk Management; Planning; Programs; Research; Welfare

2010
Chapter

From Visible Harm to Relative Risk: Centralization and Fragmentation of Pharmacovigilance

By: Arthur A. Daemmrich

Adverse drug reactions pose distinct but potentially catastrophic risks to patients, physicians, pharmaceutical firms, and regulators. Between the early 1960s and the present, national systems were built to collect, standardize, and respond to individual reports of... View Details

Keywords: Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Health Testing and Trials; Business and Government Relations; Risk and Uncertainty; Safety; Pharmaceutical Industry; United States

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Article

The Economics of Structured Finance

By: Joshua D. Coval, Jakub W. Jurek and Erik Stafford

This paper investigates the spectacular rise and fall of structured finance. The essence of structured finance activities is the pooling of economic assets like loans, bonds, and mortgages, and the subsequent issuance of a prioritized capital structure of claims, known... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Asset Management; Debt Securities; Investment; Risk Management; Behavior

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09 Sep 2013
Lessons from the Classroom

Teaching Climate Change to Skeptics

A few years ago, Joseph B. Lassiter traveled to San Francisco, Houston, and New York to hold discussions with Harvard alumni on the topic of business and the environment. Each time, he surveyed the audience about the touchy subject of climate change and how society... View Details

Keywords: by Carmen Nobel

2009
Working Paper

Assess, Don't Assume, Part I: Etiquette and National Culture in Negotiation

By: James K. Sebenius

When facing a cross-border negotiation, the standard preparatory assessments -- of the parties, their interests, their no-deal options, opportunities for and barriers to creating and claiming value, the most promising sequence and process design, etc. -- should be... View Details

Keywords: Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Negotiation Process; Societal Protocols; Competitive Advantage; Cooperation

January 1999 (Revised June 2006)
Case

Advanced Technologies, Inc.

By: Thomas R. Piper

The CEO of a semiconductor equipment manufacturer is assessing the financial forecasts and financing plan prepared by the chief financial officer. Continued rapid growth will create substantial financing pressures, especially if profitability fails to recover and/or if... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Earnings Management; Financial Condition; Financial Reporting; Risk and Uncertainty; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Outcome or Result; Growth and Development; Crisis Management; Profit; Financial Strategy; Semiconductor Industry; Manufacturing Industry

30 Jun 2015
First Look

First Look: June 30, 2015

anticorruption ratings are domiciled in countries with low corruption risk ratings and strong anticorruption enforcement, operate in high corruption risk industries, have recently faced a corruption... View Details

Keywords: Carmen Nobel

2023
Working Paper

The Irredeemability of the Past: Determinants of Reconciliation and Revenge in Post-Conflict Settings

By: Kristen Kao, Kristin Fabbe and Michael Bang Petersen

In the aftermath of violent conflict, identifying former enemy collaborators versus innocent bystanders forced to flee violence is difficult. In post-conflict settings, internally displaced persons (IDPs) risk becoming stigmatized and face difficulties... View Details

Keywords: Conflict and Resolution; War; Refugees; Moral Sensibility; Behavior; Public Opinion; Lawfulness; Iraq

July 2019 (Revised March 2020)
Case

At-Bay Cyber Insurance

By: Marco Di Maggio and David Lane

At-Bay was a cyber insurance startup that offered companies coverage against a wide array of cyber risks—exposure to which the firm was able to quickly assess and price on the basis of technical expertise that traditional insurance carriers lacked. In mid-2019, At-Bay... View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Insurance; Disruptive Innovation; Risk Management; Product Marketing; Distribution Channels; Information Technology; Salesforce Management; Insurance Industry

September 2024
Case

InfraCredit and the Project Inception Facility

By: John Macomber, Namrata Arora and Maagatha Kalavadakken

Around the world, large infrastructure projects are frequently stymied by the high cost and high uncertainty of the project inception phase: the research and engineering and planning prior to financial close and start of construction. Could there be a new kind of... View Details

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