Publications

fall 2004
Article

Predictable Negotiations: Should Have Seen This Coming (Book Excerpt)

By: M. Bazerman and Michael Watkins

Keywords: Negotiation; Books

Summer 2021
Article

Predictable Country-level Bias in the Reporting of COVID-19 Deaths

By: Botir Kobilov, Ethan Rouen and George Serafeim

We examine whether a country’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic relate to the downward biasing of the number of reported deaths from COVID-19. Using deviations from historical averages of the total number of monthly deaths within a country, we find that the... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Deaths; Reporting; Incentives; Government Policy; Health Pandemics; Health Care and Treatment; Country; Crisis Management; Outcome or Result; Reports; Policy

Article

Physical and Situational Inequality on Airplanes Predict Air Rage

By: K. A. DeCelles and Michael I. Norton

We posit that the modern airplane is a social microcosm of class-based society, and that the increasing incidence of “air rage” can be understood through the lens of inequality. Research on inequality typically examines the effects of relatively fixed, macrostructural... View Details

Keywords: Physical Inequality; Equality and Inequality; Behavior; Air Transportation; Situation or Environment

March 2003
Article

Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming

By: Michael D. Watkins and Max H. Bazerman

21 Oct 2015
Research & Ideas

How to Predict if a New Business Idea is Any Good

other once unlikely, now successful startups (LinkedIn similarly got more than 20 rejections back in 2003) seem to beg: How do you tell a good idea from a bad one? “With startups, especially high-growth startups, it’s extremely hard to View Details

Keywords: by Michael Blanding; Accommodations; Financial Services

28 Sep 2021
News

Dropbox Billionaire Predicts 40-Hour Workweek Will Become a ‘Thing of the Past’

May 2018
Article

The Amount and Source of Millionaires' Wealth (Moderately) Predicts Their Happiness

By: Grant Edward Donnelly, Tianyi Zheng, Emily Haisley and Michael I. Norton

Two samples of more than 4,000 millionaires reveal two primary findings. First, only at high levels of wealth—in excess of $8 million (Study 1) and $10 million (Study 2)—are wealthier millionaires happier than millionaires with lower levels of wealth, though these... View Details

Keywords: Income; Well-being; Happiness; Wealth; Money; Attitudes; Situation or Environment

2023
Working Paper

Nailing Prediction: Experimental Evidence on the Value of Tools in Predictive Model Development

By: Daniel Yue, Paul Hamilton and Iavor Bojinov

Predictive model development is understudied despite its centrality in modern artificial intelligence and machine learning business applications. Although prior discussions highlight advances in methods (along the dimensions of data, computing power, and algorithms)... View Details

Keywords: Analytics and Data Science

SSRN

Predictive model development is understudied despite its importance to modern businesses. Although prior discussions highlight advances in methods (along the dimensions of data, computing power, and algorithms) as the primary driver of model quality, the value of... View Details

31 May 2023
Research & Ideas

With Predictive Analytics, Companies Can Tap the Ultimate Opportunity: Customers’ Routines

If knowing what customers need is marketing gold, pinpointing exactly when they need it may just be platinum. Services that become part of a customer’s routine may deliver advantages beyond repeat business for a company, Harvard Business School Associate Professor Eva... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Transportation

April 2024
Article

A Machine Learning Algorithm Predicting Risk of Dilating VUR among Infants with Hydronephrosis Using UTD Classification

By: Hsin-Hsiao Scott Wang, Michael Lingzhi Li, Dylan Cahill, John Panagides, Tanya Logvinenko, Jeanne Chow and Caleb Nelson

Backgrounds: Urinary Tract Dilation (UTD) classification has been designed to be a more objective grading system to evaluate antenatal and post-natal UTD. Due to unclear association between UTD classifications to specific anomalies such as vesico-ureteral reflux (VUR),... View Details

Keywords: Health Disorders; Health Testing and Trials; AI and Machine Learning; Health Industry

March 2013
Article

Misvaluing Innovation

By: Lauren Cohen, Karl Diether and Christopher Malloy

We demonstrate that a firm's ability to innovate is predictable, persistent, and relatively simple to compute, and yet the stock market ignores the implications of past successes when valuing future innovation. We show that two firms that invest the exact same in... View Details

Keywords: Innovation; Return Predictability; R＆D; Information; Forecasting and Prediction; Research and Development; Innovation and Invention

June 2023
Case

Accounting for Loan Losses at JPMorgan Chase: Predicting Credit Costs

By: Jonas Heese, Jung Koo Kang and James Weber

The case examines the accounting for loan losses at a large bank, how a bank sets its Allowance for Loan and Lease Losses (ALLL) on its financial statements. ALLL, and the rules that set them, determine when banks would and would not extend loans, which significantly... View Details

Keywords: Accounting Standards; Accrual Accounting; Financial Statements; Financial Reporting; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; Banking Industry; United States

Educators

Purchase

1996
Other Unpublished Work

Testing for Structural Change in the Predictability of Asset Returns

By: Luis M. Viceira

10 Aug 2013 - 13 Aug 2013
Conference Presentation

Stock Market Prediction via Social Media: The Importance of Competitors

By: Frank Nagle