Publications

Article

Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?

By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Robert L. Winkler

We consider two ways to aggregate expert opinions using simple averages: averaging probabilities and averaging quantiles. We examine analytical properties of these forecasts and compare their ability to harness the wisdom of the crowd. In terms of location, the two... View Details

Keywords: Probability Forecasts; Quantile Forecasts; Expert Combination; Linear Opinion Pooling; Forecasting and Prediction

Purchase

February 1998
Article

'A Matter of Trust': Effects of Communication on the Efficiency and Distribution of Outcomes

By: K. L. McGinn, J. Moag and M. H. Bazerman

Keywords: Trust; Communication; Outcome or Result; Distribution

Article

Pitfall or Scaffolding? Starting-point Pull in Configuration Decision Making

By: Eliran Halali, Yoella Bereby-Meyer and David Leiser

In configuration problems, such as the construction of a weekly study schedule, decision makers must assemble a combination of parts under a set of constraints. Interactions may be present between the parts, and more than a single objective function may exist, such as... View Details

2024
Working Paper

Displacement or Complementarity? The Labor Market Impact of Generative AI

By: Wilbur Xinyuan Chen, Suraj Srinivasan and Saleh Zakerinia

Generative AI is poised to reshape the labor market, affecting cognitive and white-collar occupations in ways distinct from past technological revolutions. This study examines whether generative AI displaces workers or augments their jobs by analyzing labor demand and... View Details

Keywords: Generative Ai; Labor Market; Automation And Augmentation; Labor; AI and Machine Learning; Competency and Skills

09 May 2005
Research & Ideas

Hold or Fold? Sizing Up Business Risk

Stay Or Quit When we think about whether we want to stay and play, quit and play again, or quit and start a different kind of game, we try to figure out three things: current satisfaction, prediction about... View Details

Keywords: by Eileen C. Shapiro & Howard H. Stevenson

27 Nov 2023
Research & Ideas

Voting Democrat or Republican? The Critical Childhood Influence That's Tough to Shake

participation, according to a study that looks at registration records from 2012 to 2021 of more than 15 million voters aged 18 to 24. “We show that, to some extent, our affiliation as a Democratic or Republican voter comes from... View Details

Keywords: by Ben Rand

1995
Chapter

Alternative Models of Negotiated Outcomes and the Nontraditional Utility Concerns That Limit Their Predictability

By: S. B. White, M. H. Bazerman and M. A. Neale

Keywords: Negotiation; Outcome or Result; Forecasting and Prediction

01 Aug 2011
Research & Ideas

Immigrant Innovators: Job Stealers or Job Creators?

arguing since the creation of the program more than 20 years ago: Is the program helpful or hurtful to American workers? “What's not debated is that immigrants are extremely important to innovation" The program enables US employers to... View Details

Keywords: by Carmen Nobel; Technology

Web

2.4.1 Cases Involving Sexual Harassment or Other Sexual Misconduct & Cases involving Discrimination or Bullying | MBA

2.4.1 Cases Involving Sexual Harassment or Other Sexual Misconduct & Cases involving Discrimination or Bullying 2.4 Disciplinary Process Whenever a formal complaint of sexual harassment View Details

15 Aug 2005
Research & Ideas

The Founding CEO’s Dilemma: Stay or Go?

companies, when the CEO doesn't do well, the CEO gets replaced. When the CEO does do well, there is almost no chance that person will be replaced. If he or she has led the company to success, that person is about as solid in the position... View Details

2021
Other Unpublished Work

Computer-Implemented Methods and Systems for Measuring, Estimating, and Managing Economic Outcomes and Technical Debt in Software Systems and Projects: US Patent 11,126,427 B2

By: Daniel J. Sturtevant, Carliss Baldwin, Alan MacCormack, Sunny Ahn and Sean Gilliland

An interrelated set of tools and methods is disclosed for: (1) measuring the relationship between software source code attributes (such as code quality, design quality, test quality, and complexity metrics) and software economics outcome metrics (such as... View Details

Keywords: Technical Debt; Applications and Software; Economics; Measurement and Metrics; Patents

December 2010
Supplement

Everything or Nothing: Martti Ahtisaari and the Aceh Negotiations (B)

By: James K. Sebenius and Alex Green

Describes Martti Ahtisaari's negotiating strategies and tactics along with the results of his efforts to end the decades-long conflict between Acehnese insurgents and the Indonesian government that had claimed thousands of lives. View Details

Keywords: Government and Politics; Agreements and Arrangements; Negotiation Tactics; Conflict of Interests; Strategy; Indonesia

Purchase

November 2021
Article

The Effects of Retirement on Sense of Purpose in Life: Crisis or Opportunity?

By: Ayse Yemiscigil, Nattavudh Powdthavee and Ashley V. Whillans

Does retirement lead to an existential crisis or present an opportunity to experience a renewed sense of purpose in life? Prior research has documented a negative association between retirement and sense of purpose in life, suggesting that retirement could lead people... View Details

Keywords: Aging; Meaning; Socioeconomic Status; Life Experiences; Retirement; Well-being

Purchase

29 Nov 2006
Research & Ideas

Rich or Royal: What Do Founders Want?

equity for themselves) versus giving potential co-founders a large share of the equity to come on board. The choices were: taking money from angel investors, who would let the entrepreneur continue controlling the board; taking money from top-tier VCs, who would take... View Details

Keywords: by Sarah Jane Gilbert; Financial Services

March 2024
Article

The Political Effects of Immigration: Culture or Economics?

By: Alberto Alesina and Marco Tabellini

We review the growing literature on the political economy of immigration. First, we discuss the effects of immigration on a wide range of political and social outcomes. The existing evidence suggests that immigrants often, but not always, trigger backlash, increasing... View Details

Keywords: Political Backlash; Cultural Beliefs; Immigration; Political Elections; Outcome or Result; Social Issues; Perception

Article

Defining, Measuring, and Improving Value in Spine Care

By: Robert S. Kaplan and Derek Haas

This chapter discusses how to measure and improve spine care outcomes and costs. Today’s commonly used outcome metrics, such as readmission and complication rates, are actually process and quality metrics. They are not the outcomes, such as improvement in pain and... View Details

Keywords: Spine Care; Outcomes Measurement; Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing; Health Care and Treatment; Cost; Measurement and Metrics; Performance Improvement; Value

December 2009
Article

Empire-Building or Bridge-Building? Evidence from New CEOs' Internal Capital Allocation Decisions

By: Yuhai Xuan

This article investigates how the job histories of CEOs influence their capital allocation decisions when they preside over multi-divisional firms. I find that, after CEO turnover, divisions not previously affiliated with the new CEO receive significantly more capital... View Details

Keywords: Business Divisions; Decision Choices and Conditions; Capital Budgeting; Financial Management; Managerial Roles; Resource Allocation

Article

Does 'Liking' Lead to Loving? The Impact of Joining a Brand's Social Network on Marketing Outcomes

By: Leslie K. John, Oliver Emrich, Sunil Gupta and Michael I. Norton

Does “liking” a brand on Facebook cause a person to view it more favorably? Or is “liking” simply a symptom of being fond of a brand? We disentangle these possibilities and find evidence for the latter: brand attitudes and purchasing are predicted by consumers’... View Details

Keywords: Brands; Marketing Effectiveness; Brand Evaluation; Peer Influence; Brands and Branding; Social and Collaborative Networks; Social Media