Inflation and Deflation - Publications - Faculty & Research

07 Sep 2006
Working Paper Summaries

Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-Horizon Portfolios

Keywords: by Jakub W. Jurek & Luis M. Viceira

2025
Working Paper

Turning Points in Inflation: A Structural Breaks Approach with Micro Data

By: Alberto Cavallo and Gastón García Zavaleta

We introduce a novel methodology for detecting inflation turning points that combines high-frequency, disaggregated price data with standard structural break techniques to provide policymakers with more precise and timely signals of inflation dynamics. The methodology... View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Global Range; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Analysis; Price

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24 Jun 2009
Working Paper Summaries

Don’t Just Survive—Thrive: Leading Innovation in Good Times and Bad

Keywords: by Lynda M. Applegate & J. Bruce Harreld

16 Jun 2008
Research & Ideas

Seven Tips for Managing Price Increases

yourself paying more attention to the prices of everything you buy? You are not alone. Consumers everywhere are more price aware. People who've been indifferent to price increases for years are suddenly amazed at what things now cost. How can marketers cope not just... View Details

Keywords: by John Quelch

27 Jun 2005
Research & Ideas

Asian and American Leadership Styles: How Are They Unique?

achievement; but it's hard to credit that given the enormous inflation of top executive compensation packages in America in the last decade. Many American firms, especially most of the large ones, are more dependent on capital markets for... View Details

Keywords: by D. Quinn Mills

May 2025
Article

Argentina’s Disinflation: An International and Historical Perspective

By: Rafael Di Tella, Franco Nuñez and Pablo Ottonello

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Economy; Argentina

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2010
Working Paper

Valuation When Cash Flow Forecasts Are Biased

By: Richard S. Ruback

This paper focuses adaptations to the discount cash flow (DCF) method when valuing forecasted cash flows that are biased measures of expected cash flows. I imagine a simple setting where the expected cash flows equal the forecasted cash flows plus an omitted downside.... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cash Flow; Cost of Capital; Performance Expectations; Prejudice and Bias; Valuation

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February 2020 (Revised August 2021)
Case

Australia: Commodities, Competitiveness, Climate and China

By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Laura Alfaro

For the past few decades, Australia has dealt with the benefits and costs of repeated mining booms—inflation, a housing bubble, a current account deficit, and growing dependence on China. Between 1996 and 2007, however, Australia had most of these issues under control... View Details

Keywords: Commodities; Competitiveness; Carbon Tax; Environment; Capital Flows; Current Account; Mining; Economy; Problems and Challenges; Climate Change; Taxation; Competition; Financial Condition; Government and Politics; Inflation and Deflation; Environmental Sustainability; Australia

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January 1997 (Revised March 1997)
Background Note

Note on Money and Monetary Policy

By: David A. Moss and Wyatt C. Wells

Offers a brief overview of economic thinking about the nature of money and about how the central bank can affect the economy through monetary policy. View Details

Keywords: Sovereign Finance; Government Administration; Policy; Central Banking; Money; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Crisis

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2025
Working Paper

Markups and Cost Pass-through Along the Supply Chain

By: Santiago Alvarez-Blaser, Alberto Cavallo, Alexander MacKay and Paolo Mengano

We study markups and pricing strategies along the supply chain. Our unique dataset combines detailed price and cost information from a large global manufacturer with matched retail prices collected online for the period July 2018 through June 2023. We show that total... View Details

Keywords: Markups; Pricing; Price; Supply Chain; Inflation and Deflation; Cost

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Article

Fly-by-Night Firms and the Market for Product Reviews

By: Gerald R. Faulhaber and Dennis A. Yao

This paper presents a model that permits third-party information provision in a market characterized by information asymmetries and reputation formation. The model is used to examine how the market for information provision affects prices and supply in the primary... View Details

Keywords: Markets; Reputation; SWOT Analysis; Mathematical Methods; Price Bubble; Inflation and Deflation; Duopoly and Oligopoly; Cost; Information; Quality; Price; Competitive Advantage; Information Industry

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2005
Working Paper

Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race

By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk

The main arguments in favor of and against nominal and indexed debt are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium... View Details

Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Taxation; Risk and Uncertainty; Inflation and Deflation; System Shocks; Developing Countries and Economies; Mathematical Methods

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08 Mar 2016
Research & Ideas

Solving an Economic Mystery Surrounding Argentina and Chile

Argentina, multiple business leaders explained how they were obliged to adopt a short-term decision horizon in response to policy fluctuations, macroeconomic instability and high inflation rates.... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne

05 Jan 2009
Research & Ideas

Most Popular Articles and Working Papers 2008

with the price-increase hammer every time they drive past a gas station. Harvard Business School professor John Quelch offers tips on how marketers can cope with inflation and consumer sticker shock. 12.... View Details

Keywords: by Staff

24 Jul 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, July 24, 2018

of an estimated secular increase in the cross-country correlations of both stock and bond returns since the late 1990s. Increased correlations of inflation shocks are also an important source of the shift in... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

2008
Working Paper

Behavioral Aspects of Price Setting, and Their Policy Implications

By: Julio J. Rotemberg

This paper starts by discussing consumers' cognitive and emotional reaction to posted prices. Cognitively, some consumers do not appear to make effective use of price information to maximize their consumption-based utility. Emotionally, prices can induce regret and... View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Price; Policy; Laws and Statutes; Consumer Behavior; Emotions

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16 Oct 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, October 16, 2018

with Asian manufacturers, built a small warehouse and fulfillment center, designed an innovative line of inflatable SUPs, and built an ecommerce website that sold boards View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

09 Mar 2022
Research & Ideas

War in Ukraine: Soaring Gas Prices and the Return of Stagflation?

With the global economy still reeling from inflation and supply-chain disruptions, the Russian invasion of Ukraine threatens to further destabilize the world’s fragile recovery from COVID-19. The impact on... View Details

Keywords: by Avery Forman; Energy

03 Jul 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, July 3, 2018

alleging that Noble was too aggressive in its fair value accounting for contracts and investments in producers. Iceberg did not accuse Noble of fraud but suggested that Noble’s profits and balance sheet were... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

December 2010
Article

Nominal versus Indexed Debt: A Quantitative Horse Race

By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk

The main arguments in favor of and against nominal and indexed debt are the incentive to default through inflation versus hedging against unforeseen shocks. We model and calibrate these arguments to assess their quantitative importance. We use a dynamic equilibrium... View Details