Forecasting and Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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Article

Bringing Probability Judgments into Policy Debates via Forecasting Tournaments

By: Philip E. Tetlock, Barbara A. Mellers and J. Peter Scoblic

Political debates often suffer from vague-verbiage predictions that make it difficult to assess accuracy and improve policy. A tournament sponsored by the U.S. intelligence community revealed ways in which forecasters can better use probability estimates to make... View Details

Keywords: Tournaments; Politics; Depolarization; Knowledge Creation; Forecasting and Prediction; Government and Politics

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2002
Other Unpublished Work

The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns

By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler

The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details

Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Return; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction

January 1982 (Revised May 1983)
Case

Unitrode Corp. (B): Short Term Forecasting and Major Procurements

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction

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February 2021
Tutorial

Assessing Prediction Accuracy of Machine Learning Models

By: Michael Toffel and Natalie Epstein

This video describes how to assess the accuracy of machine learning prediction models, primarily in the context of machine learning models that predict binary outcomes, such as logistic regression, random forest, or nearest neighbor models. After introducing and... View Details

Keywords: Statistics; Experiments; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation; AI and Machine Learning

November 2003
Article

The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns

By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler

The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long-term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details

Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Return; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction

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2009
Article

The Harvard Economic Service and the Problems of Forecasting

By: Walter Friedman

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Higher Education; Problems and Challenges; Economics

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1996
Chapter

The Power of Predictability

By: H. H. Stevenson and Mihnea Moldoveanu

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction

January 2024 (Revised February 2024)
Supplement

Accelerating with Caution: Forecasting and Managing birddogs’ Growth

October 2014
Teaching Note

Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A) and (B)

By: Mihir A. Desai and Elizabeth Meyer

This is the teaching note to HBS case 214-085: Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A). View Details

Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland

November 2011
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2011)

By: John T. Gourville

An updated "Four Products" case. This 2011 version includes: sliced peanut butter, artificial dirt for thoroughbred race tracks, interactive tombstones, and stride-changing running shoes. These four products form the basis to assess the drivers of new product adoption.... View Details

Keywords: Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Marketing

2007
Working Paper

Incorporating Price and Inventory Endogeneity in Firm-Level Sales Forecasting

By: Saravanan Kesavan, Vishal Gaur and Ananth Raman

July 2019
Article

'Forward Flow': A New Measure to Quantify Free Thought and Predict Creativity

By: Kurt Gray, Stephen Anderson, Eric Evan Chen, John Michael Kelly, Michael S. Christian, John Patrick, Laura Huang, Yoed N. Kenett and Kevin Lewis

When the human mind is free to roam, its subjective experience is characterized by a continuously evolving stream of thought. Although there is a technique that captures people’s streams of free thought—free association—its utility for scientific research is undermined... View Details

Keywords: Cognition and Thinking; Creativity; Forecasting and Prediction

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16 Mar 2018
Working Paper Summaries

Amount and Diversity of Digital Emotional Expression Predicts Happiness

Keywords: by Laura Vuillier, Alison Wood Brooks, June Gruber, Rui Sun, Michael I. Norton, Matthew James Samson, Emiliana Simon-Thomas, Paul Piff, Sarah Fan, Jordi Quoidbach, Charles Gorintin, Pete Fleming, Arturo Bejar, and Dacher Keltner

June 2020
Supplement

Ride-Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber's Growth

By: E. Ofek, Eitan Muller and Barak Libai

March 2018
Article

Polluted Morality: Air Pollution Predicts Criminal Activity and Unethical Behavior

By: Jackson G. Lu, Julia J. Lee, F. Gino and Adam D. Galinsky

Air pollution is a serious problem that influences billions of people globally. Although the health and environmental costs of air pollution are well known, the present research investigates its ethical costs. We propose that air pollution can increase criminal and... View Details

Keywords: Pollutants; Behavior; Moral Sensibility; Crime and Corruption

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March 2022 (Revised January 2025)
Technical Note

Prediction & Machine Learning

By: Iavor I. Bojinov, Michael Parzen and Paul Hamilton

This note provides an introduction to machine learning for an introductory data science course. The note begins with a description of supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning. Then, the note provides a brief explanation of the difference between traditional... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Data Science; Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Performance Evaluation; AI and Machine Learning

01 Mar 2017
News

Students Forecast Climate Change’s Impact

MORE Watch three students discuss their approach to the climate change challenge MORE Watch three students discuss their approach to the climate change challenge Professors Mike Toffel and Marco Iansiti presented the more than 900 RC... View Details

Keywords: Dan Morrell

August 28, 2019
Article

How to Make Your Sales Forecasts More Accurate

By: Lou Shipley

Companies need consistently accurate sales forecasts — but unfortunately they are rare. That’s because many companies fail to align their sales and marketing departments, and that alignment is a prerequisite for forecast accuracy. Companies can achieve better alignment... View Details

Keywords: Sales; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing; Alignment; Technology

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August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
Case

Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (A)

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler

This case follows VP of Marketing, Jill Wehunt, and analyst Mark Morse as they tackle a predictive analytics project to increase sales in the Mom & Baby unit of a nationally recognized retailer, PriceMart. Wehunt observed that in the midst of the chaos that surrounded... View Details

Keywords: Data Science; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction

06 May 2015
What Do You Think?

Are You Ready for Personalized Predictive Analytics?

amounts of inventory that ensure an in-stock position when an order is received. An argument can be made that any forecast and inventory is based on predictive analytics. But... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett

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