Publications

Educators

07 Jun 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Reflexivity in Credit Markets

Keywords: by Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, and Lawrence J. Jin

2023
Article

On the Impact of Actionable Explanations on Social Segregation

By: Ruijiang Gao and Himabindu Lakkaraju

As predictive models seep into several real-world applications, it has become critical to ensure that individuals who are negatively impacted by the outcomes of these models are provided with a means for recourse. To this end, there has been a growing body of research... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Outcome or Result

August 2003
Article

When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity-Dependent Firms

By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler

We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that... View Details

Keywords: Stocks; Price; Investment; Equity; Forecasting and Prediction; Rank and Position; Markets

Find at Harvard

March 2022 (Revised May 2022)
Case

Winning Business at Russell Reynolds (A)

By: Ethan Bernstein and Cara Mazzucco

In an effort to make compensation drive collaboration, Russell Reynolds Associates’ (RRA) CEO Clarke Murphy sought to re-engineer the bonus system for his executive search consultants in 2016. As his HR analytics guru, Kelly Smith, points out, that risks upsetting–and... View Details

Educators

2001
Working Paper

When Does the Market Matter? Stock Prices and the Investment of Equity Dependent Firms

By: Malcolm Baker, Jeremy Stein and Jeffrey Wurgler

We use a simple model of corporate investment to determine when investment will be sensitive to non-fundamental movements in stock prices. The key cross-sectional prediction of the model is that stock prices will have a stronger impact on the investment of firms that... View Details

Keywords: Investment; Equity; Stocks; Price; Mathematical Methods; Forecasting and Prediction

December 2010
Article

Altruistic Dynamic Pricing with Customer Regret

By: Julio J. Rotemberg

A model is considered where firms internalize the regret costs that consumers experience when they see an unexpected price change. Regret costs are assumed to be increasing in the size of price changes and this can explain why the size of price increases is less... View Details

Keywords: Cost; Price; Change; Inflation and Deflation; Cost Management; Customers; Practice; Announcements; Forecasting and Prediction

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19 May 2015
First Look

First Look: May 19

Abstract—The prominent but unproven intuition that preference heterogeneity reduces redistribution in a standard optimal tax model is shown to hold under the plausible condition that the distribution of preferences for consumption... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

January 2001
Case

Valuing Project Achieve

By: Mihir A. Desai and Kathleen Luchs

Project Achieve is a start-up providing information management solutions for schools. Its founders see a need for software both to manage the volumes of information necessary to administer a school and to connect parents, teachers, and students in a more effective way.... View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Valuation; Venture Capital; Cost of Capital; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction

Educators

Article

A Choice Prediction Competition for Market Entry Games: An Introduction

By: Ido Erev, Eyal Ert and Alvin E. Roth

A choice prediction competition is organized that focuses on decisions from experience in market entry games (http://sites.google.com/site/gpredcomp/ and http://www.mdpi.com/si/games/predict-behavior/). The competition is based on two experiments: An estimation... View Details

Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Market Entry and Exit; Game Theory; Behavior; Competition

Person Page

Curriculum Vitae

Noel Watson

View Details

2011
Article

A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction

By: Eyal Ert, Ido Erev and Alvin E. Roth

Two independent, but related, choice prediction competitions are organized that focus on behavior in simple two-person extensive form games: one focuses on predicting the choices of the first mover and the other on predicting the choices of the second mover. The... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Behavior; Decision Choices and Conditions; Competition; Motivation and Incentives; Game Theory; Fairness

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2002
Other Unpublished Work

Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeremy Stein

We build a model that helps to explain why increases in liquidity—such as lower bid–ask spreads, a lower price impact of trade, or higher turnover—predict lower subsequent returns in both firm-level and aggregate data. The model features a class of irrational... View Details

Keywords: Price; Financial Liquidity; Trade; Valuation; Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Equity; Stock Shares; Investment Return

2010
Working Paper

The Unbundling of Advertising Agency Services: An Economic Analysis

By: Mohammad Arzaghi, Ernst R. Berndt, James C. Davis and Alvin J. Silk

We address a longstanding puzzle surrounding the unbundling of services occurring over several decades in the U.S. advertising agency industry: What accounts for the shift from bundling to unbundling of services and the slow pace of change? Using Evans and Salinger's... View Details

Keywords: Advertising; Change; Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Price; Analytics and Data Science; Surveys; Marketing Strategy; Media; Service Operations; Agency Theory; Mathematical Methods; Advertising Industry; United States

2011
Chapter

Regional Trade Integration and Multinational Firm Strategies

By: Pol Antras and C. Fritz Foley

This paper analyzes the effects of the formation of a regional trade agreement on the level and nature of multinational firm activity. We examine aggregate data that captures the response of U.S. multinational firms to the formation of the ASEAN free trade agreement.... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Trade; Foreign Direct Investment; Multinational Firms and Management; Globalized Markets and Industries; Analytics and Data Science; Agreements and Arrangements; United States

Web

Entrepreneurial Management - Faculty & Research

consequences of various forms of entrepreneurial opportunity identification and opportunity pursuit for individuals, organizations, and industries. We see experimentation and innovation in products, services, processes, and business View Details

October 2020 (Revised March 2021)
Supplement

Migros Turkey: Scaling Online Operations During COVID-19 (C)

By: Antonio Moreno and Gamze Yucaoglu

The case opens in August 2020 as Ozgur Tort and Mustafa Bartin, CEO and chief large-format and online retail officer of Migros Ticaret A.S. (Migros), Turkey’s oldest and one of its largest supermarket chains, are navigating Migros through COVID-19 and the unprecedented... View Details

Keywords: Business Model; Strategy; Digital Platforms; Information Technology; Technology Adoption; Value Creation; Globalization; Competition; Expansion; Logistics; Profit; Resource Allocation; Diversification; Corporate Strategy; Crisis Management; Health Pandemics; Strategic Planning; Food and Beverage Industry; Turkey

2009
Case

What People Want (and How to Predict It)

By: Thomas H. Davenport and Jeanne G. Harris

Historically, neither the creators nor the distributors of cultural products such as books or movies have used analytics -- data, statistics, predictive modeling -- to determine the likely success of their offerings. Instead, companies relied on the brilliance of... View Details

Keywords: Product Development; Creativity; Customer Satisfaction; Forecasting and Prediction; Markets; Business Model; Publishing Industry; Motion Pictures and Video Industry