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  • All HBS Web  (3,385)
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    • Research  (2,490)
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  • January 1982 (Revised May 1983)
  • Case

Unitrode Corp. (B): Short Term Forecasting and Major Procurements

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
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Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Unitrode Corp. (B): Short Term Forecasting and Major Procurements." Harvard Business School Case 182-179, January 1982. (Revised May 1983.)
  • 1996
  • Chapter

The Power of Predictability

By: H. H. Stevenson and Mihnea Moldoveanu
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
Citation
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Stevenson, H. H., and Mihnea Moldoveanu. "The Power of Predictability." In The Quest for Loyalty: Creating Value Through Partnership, edited by Fred Reichheld. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1996.
  • April 2008
  • Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2008)

By: John T. Gourville
An updated "Four Products" case. This 2008 version includes: sliced peanut butter, foldable bicycle tires, high-end wooden puzzles, and artificial dirt for thoroughbred race tracks. These four products form the basis to assess the drivers of new product adoption. In... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Adoption
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Gourville, John T. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2008)." Harvard Business School Case 508-103, April 2008.
  • January 1986 (Revised April 1987)
  • Background Note

Models for Updating Demand Forecasts

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
Citation
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Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "Models for Updating Demand Forecasts." Harvard Business School Background Note 186-180, January 1986. (Revised April 1987.)
  • 2009
  • Article

The Harvard Economic Service and the Problems of Forecasting

By: Walter Friedman
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Higher Education; Problems and Challenges; Economics
Citation
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Friedman, Walter. "The Harvard Economic Service and the Problems of Forecasting." History of Political Economy 41, no. 1 (2009).
  • April 2025
  • Article

Buying (Quality) Time Predicts Relationship Satisfaction

By: A.V. Whillans, Jessie Pow and Joe J. Gladstone
Seven studies examine the association between time-saving purchases (e.g., housecleaning and meal delivery services) and relationship satisfaction. Study 1 uses an eleven-year longitudinal panel survey to show that increases in time-saving purchases predict long-term... View Details
Keywords: Personal Finance; Family and Family Relationships; Satisfaction; Well-being
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Whillans, A.V., Jessie Pow, and Joe J. Gladstone. "Buying (Quality) Time Predicts Relationship Satisfaction." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 128, no. 4 (April 2025): 821–863.
  • July 2019
  • Article

'Forward Flow': A New Measure to Quantify Free Thought and Predict Creativity

By: Kurt Gray, Stephen Anderson, Eric Evan Chen, John Michael Kelly, Michael S. Christian, John Patrick, Laura Huang, Yoed N. Kenett and Kevin Lewis
When the human mind is free to roam, its subjective experience is characterized by a continuously evolving stream of thought. Although there is a technique that captures people’s streams of free thought—free association—its utility for scientific research is undermined... View Details
Keywords: Cognition and Thinking; Creativity; Forecasting and Prediction
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Gray, Kurt, Stephen Anderson, Eric Evan Chen, John Michael Kelly, Michael S. Christian, John Patrick, Laura Huang, Yoed N. Kenett, and Kevin Lewis. "'Forward Flow': A New Measure to Quantify Free Thought and Predict Creativity." American Psychologist 74, no. 5 (July 2019): 539–554.
  • April 1995 (Revised April 2008)
  • Teaching Note

L.L. Bean, Inc.: Item Forecasting and Inventory Management TN

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.
Teaching Note for (9-893-003). View Details
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Schleifer, Arthur, Jr. "L.L. Bean, Inc.: Item Forecasting and Inventory Management TN." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 895-057, April 1995. (Revised April 2008.)
  • July–August 1995
  • Article

The Power of Predictability

By: H. H. Stevenson and M. C. Moldoveanu
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction
Citation
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Stevenson, H. H., and M. C. Moldoveanu. "The Power of Predictability." Harvard Business Review 73, no. 4 (July–August 1995).
  • 2007
  • Working Paper

Incorporating Price and Inventory Endogeneity in Firm-Level Sales Forecasting

By: Saravanan Kesavan, Vishal Gaur and Ananth Raman
Citation
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Kesavan, Saravanan, Vishal Gaur, and Ananth Raman. "Incorporating Price and Inventory Endogeneity in Firm-Level Sales Forecasting." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 07-056, March 2007.
  • April 1966
  • Article

A Two-Stage Forecasting Model: Exponential Smoothing and Multiple Regression

By: D. B. Crane and James R. Crotty
Keywords: Mathematical Methods
Citation
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Crane, D. B., and James R. Crotty. "A Two-Stage Forecasting Model: Exponential Smoothing and Multiple Regression." Management Science 13, no. 8 (April 1966).
  • May 2019
  • Supplement

Ride-Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber's Growth

By: E. Ofek, Eitan Muller and Barak Libai
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Ofek, E., Eitan Muller, and Barak Libai. "Ride-Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber's Growth." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 519-706, May 2019.
  • April 2011
  • Teaching Note

Prediction Markets at Google (TN)

Teaching Note for 607088. View Details
Keywords: Interests; Forecasting and Prediction; Market Participation; Information Technology Industry
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Coles, Peter A. "Prediction Markets at Google (TN)." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 911-070, April 2011.
  • June 2020
  • Supplement

Ride-Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber's Growth

By: E. Ofek, Eitan Muller and Barak Libai
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Ofek, E., Eitan Muller, and Barak Libai. "Ride-Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber's Growth." Harvard Business School PowerPoint Supplement 520-714, June 2020.
  • August 2014
  • Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2014)

By: John Gourville
An updated "Four Products" case. This 2014 version includes: raw lobster meat, electric-powered Formula One race cars, a 3D printer for cosmetics, and a "smart" tennis racket. These four products form the basis to assess the drivers of new product adoption. In... View Details
Keywords: Product Diffusion; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Technology Adoption
Citation
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Gourville, John. "Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2014)." Harvard Business School Case 515-023, August 2014.
  • June 2021
  • Article

From Predictions to Prescriptions: A Data-driven Response to COVID-19

By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Léonard Boussioux, Ryan Cory-Wright, Arthur Delarue, Vassilis Digalakis Jr, Alexander Jacquillat, Driss Lahlou Kitane, Galit Lukin, Michael Lingzhi Li, Luca Mingardi, Omid Nohadani, Agni Orfanoudaki, Theodore Papalexopoulos, Ivan Paskov, Jean Pauphilet, Omar Skali Lami, Bartolomeo Stellato, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Kimberly Villalobos Carballo, Holly Wiberg and Cynthia Zeng
The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges worldwide. Strained healthcare providers make difficult decisions on patient triage, treatment and care management on a daily basis. Policy makers have imposed social distancing measures to slow the disease, at... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Health Pandemics; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science
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Bertsimas, Dimitris, Léonard Boussioux, Ryan Cory-Wright, Arthur Delarue, Vassilis Digalakis Jr, Alexander Jacquillat, Driss Lahlou Kitane, Galit Lukin, Michael Lingzhi Li, Luca Mingardi, Omid Nohadani, Agni Orfanoudaki, Theodore Papalexopoulos, Ivan Paskov, Jean Pauphilet, Omar Skali Lami, Bartolomeo Stellato, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Kimberly Villalobos Carballo, Holly Wiberg, and Cynthia Zeng. "From Predictions to Prescriptions: A Data-driven Response to COVID-19." Health Care Management Science 24, no. 2 (June 2021): 253–272.
  • 2013
  • Working Paper

Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity

By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence... View Details
Keywords: Expectations Hypothesis; Term Structure; Real Interest Rate Risk; Inflation Risk; Inflation-Indexed Bonds; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Liquidity; Bonds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; United Kingdom; United States
Citation
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Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-094, March 2011. (Revised September 2013.)
  • August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
  • Case

Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (A)

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler
This case follows VP of Marketing, Jill Wehunt, and analyst Mark Morse as they tackle a predictive analytics project to increase sales in the Mom & Baby unit of a nationally recognized retailer, PriceMart. Wehunt observed that in the midst of the chaos that surrounded... View Details
Keywords: Data Science; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction
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Datar, Srikant M., and Caitlin N. Bowler. "Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (A)." Harvard Business School Case 119-025, August 2018. (Revised September 2018.)
  • Article

Physical and Situational Inequality on Airplanes Predict Air Rage

By: K. A. DeCelles and Michael I. Norton
We posit that the modern airplane is a social microcosm of class-based society, and that the increasing incidence of “air rage” can be understood through the lens of inequality. Research on inequality typically examines the effects of relatively fixed, macrostructural... View Details
Keywords: Physical Inequality; Equality and Inequality; Behavior; Air Transportation; Situation or Environment
Citation
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DeCelles, K. A., and Michael I. Norton. "Physical and Situational Inequality on Airplanes Predict Air Rage." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113, no. 20 (May 17, 2016): 5588–5591.
  • 07 Oct 2024
  • Research & Ideas

Election 2024: Why Demographics Won't Predict the Next President

Pundits love a political horse race, parsing the latest polls to predict who might win an election. And in the final runup to the US presidential contest, these forecasts can... View Details
Keywords: by Jay Fitzgerald
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