Publications

April 2008
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2008)

By: John T. Gourville

An updated "Four Products" case. This 2008 version includes: sliced peanut butter, foldable bicycle tires, high-end wooden puzzles, and artificial dirt for thoroughbred race tracks. These four products form the basis to assess the drivers of new product adoption. In... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Adoption

Educators

January 1986 (Revised April 1987)
Background Note

Models for Updating Demand Forecasts

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction

2009
Article

The Harvard Economic Service and the Problems of Forecasting

By: Walter Friedman

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Higher Education; Problems and Challenges; Economics

April 2025
Article

Buying (Quality) Time Predicts Relationship Satisfaction

By: A.V. Whillans, Jessie Pow and Joe J. Gladstone

Seven studies examine the association between time-saving purchases (e.g., housecleaning and meal delivery services) and relationship satisfaction. Study 1 uses an eleven-year longitudinal panel survey to show that increases in time-saving purchases predict long-term... View Details

Keywords: Personal Finance; Family and Family Relationships; Satisfaction; Well-being

July 2019
Article

'Forward Flow': A New Measure to Quantify Free Thought and Predict Creativity

By: Kurt Gray, Stephen Anderson, Eric Evan Chen, John Michael Kelly, Michael S. Christian, John Patrick, Laura Huang, Yoed N. Kenett and Kevin Lewis

When the human mind is free to roam, its subjective experience is characterized by a continuously evolving stream of thought. Although there is a technique that captures people’s streams of free thought—free association—its utility for scientific research is undermined... View Details

Keywords: Cognition and Thinking; Creativity; Forecasting and Prediction

April 1995 (Revised April 2008)
Teaching Note

L.L. Bean, Inc.: Item Forecasting and Inventory Management TN

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.

Teaching Note for (9-893-003). View Details

July–August 1995
Article

The Power of Predictability

By: H. H. Stevenson and M. C. Moldoveanu

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction

2007
Working Paper

Incorporating Price and Inventory Endogeneity in Firm-Level Sales Forecasting

By: Saravanan Kesavan, Vishal Gaur and Ananth Raman

April 1966
Article

A Two-Stage Forecasting Model: Exponential Smoothing and Multiple Regression

By: D. B. Crane and James R. Crotty

Keywords: Mathematical Methods

May 2019
Supplement

Ride-Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber's Growth

By: E. Ofek, Eitan Muller and Barak Libai

April 2011
Teaching Note

Prediction Markets at Google (TN)

Teaching Note for 607088. View Details

Keywords: Interests; Forecasting and Prediction; Market Participation; Information Technology Industry

June 2020
Supplement

Ride-Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber's Growth

By: E. Ofek, Eitan Muller and Barak Libai

August 2014
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2014)

By: John Gourville

An updated "Four Products" case. This 2014 version includes: raw lobster meat, electric-powered Formula One race cars, a 3D printer for cosmetics, and a "smart" tennis racket. These four products form the basis to assess the drivers of new product adoption. In... View Details

Keywords: Product Diffusion; Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Technology Adoption

Educators

June 2021
Article

From Predictions to Prescriptions: A Data-driven Response to COVID-19

By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Léonard Boussioux, Ryan Cory-Wright, Arthur Delarue, Vassilis Digalakis Jr, Alexander Jacquillat, Driss Lahlou Kitane, Galit Lukin, Michael Lingzhi Li, Luca Mingardi, Omid Nohadani, Agni Orfanoudaki, Theodore Papalexopoulos, Ivan Paskov, Jean Pauphilet, Omar Skali Lami, Bartolomeo Stellato, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Kimberly Villalobos Carballo, Holly Wiberg and Cynthia Zeng

The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges worldwide. Strained healthcare providers make difficult decisions on patient triage, treatment and care management on a daily basis. Policy makers have imposed social distancing measures to slow the disease, at... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Health Pandemics; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science

2013
Working Paper

Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity

By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira

Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence... View Details

Keywords: Expectations Hypothesis; Term Structure; Real Interest Rate Risk; Inflation Risk; Inflation-Indexed Bonds; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Liquidity; Bonds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; United Kingdom; United States

SSRN

August 2018 (Revised September 2018)
Case

Predicting Purchasing Behavior at PriceMart (A)

By: Srikant M. Datar and Caitlin N. Bowler

This case follows VP of Marketing, Jill Wehunt, and analyst Mark Morse as they tackle a predictive analytics project to increase sales in the Mom & Baby unit of a nationally recognized retailer, PriceMart. Wehunt observed that in the midst of the chaos that surrounded... View Details

Keywords: Data Science; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction

Educators

Article

Physical and Situational Inequality on Airplanes Predict Air Rage

By: K. A. DeCelles and Michael I. Norton

We posit that the modern airplane is a social microcosm of class-based society, and that the increasing incidence of “air rage” can be understood through the lens of inequality. Research on inequality typically examines the effects of relatively fixed, macrostructural... View Details

Keywords: Physical Inequality; Equality and Inequality; Behavior; Air Transportation; Situation or Environment