Publications

Article

Bringing Probability Judgments into Policy Debates via Forecasting Tournaments

By: Philip E. Tetlock, Barbara A. Mellers and J. Peter Scoblic

Political debates often suffer from vague-verbiage predictions that make it difficult to assess accuracy and improve policy. A tournament sponsored by the U.S. intelligence community revealed ways in which forecasters can better use probability estimates to make... View Details

Keywords: Tournaments; Politics; Depolarization; Knowledge Creation; Forecasting and Prediction; Government and Politics

Keywords: by Laura Vuillier, Alison Wood Brooks, June Gruber, Rui Sun, Michael I. Norton, Matthew James Samson, Emiliana Simon-Thomas, Paul Piff, Sarah Fan, Jordi Quoidbach, Charles Gorintin, Pete Fleming, Arturo Bejar, and Dacher Keltner

16 Mar 2018
Working Paper Summaries

Amount and Diversity of Digital Emotional Expression Predicts Happiness

August 28, 2019
Article

How to Make Your Sales Forecasts More Accurate

By: Lou Shipley

Companies need consistently accurate sales forecasts — but unfortunately they are rare. That’s because many companies fail to align their sales and marketing departments, and that alignment is a prerequisite for forecast accuracy. Companies can achieve better alignment... View Details

Keywords: Sales; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing; Alignment; Technology

Read Now

2013
Other Teaching and Training Material

Operations Management Reading: Forecasting

By: Steven C. Wheelwright and Ann B. Winslow

March 2018
Article

Polluted Morality: Air Pollution Predicts Criminal Activity and Unethical Behavior

By: Jackson G. Lu, Julia J. Lee, F. Gino and Adam D. Galinsky

Air pollution is a serious problem that influences billions of people globally. Although the health and environmental costs of air pollution are well known, the present research investigates its ethical costs. We propose that air pollution can increase criminal and... View Details

Keywords: Pollutants; Behavior; Moral Sensibility; Crime and Corruption

November 2003
Article

The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns

By: Malcolm Baker, Robin Greenwood and Jeffrey Wurgler

The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long-term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in two parts. First, inflation, the real short-term rate, and the term... View Details

Keywords: Borrowing and Debt; Bonds; Investment Return; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction

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01 Mar 2017
News

Students Forecast Climate Change’s Impact

MORE Watch three students discuss their approach to the climate change challenge MORE Watch three students discuss their approach to the climate change challenge Professors Mike Toffel and Marco Iansiti presented the more than 900 RC... View Details

Keywords: Dan Morrell

January 2024 (Revised February 2024)
Supplement

Accelerating with Caution: Forecasting and Managing birddogs’ Growth

By: Mark Egan

October 2014
Teaching Note

Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A) and (B)

By: Mihir A. Desai and Elizabeth Meyer

This is the teaching note to HBS case 214-085: Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A). View Details

Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland

November 2011
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2011)

By: John T. Gourville

An updated "Four Products" case. This 2011 version includes: sliced peanut butter, artificial dirt for thoroughbred race tracks, interactive tombstones, and stride-changing running shoes. These four products form the basis to assess the drivers of new product adoption.... View Details

Keywords: Innovation and Invention; Product Launch; Marketing

1996
Chapter

The Power of Predictability

By: H. H. Stevenson and Mihnea Moldoveanu

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction

2007
Working Paper

Incorporating Price and Inventory Endogeneity in Firm-Level Sales Forecasting

By: Saravanan Kesavan, Vishal Gaur and Ananth Raman

Read Now

June 2020
Supplement

Ride-Hailing Services: Forecasting Uber's Growth

By: E. Ofek, Eitan Muller and Barak Libai

January 1982 (Revised May 1983)
Case

Unitrode Corp. (B): Short Term Forecasting and Major Procurements

By: Arthur Schleifer Jr.

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction

July 2019
Article

'Forward Flow': A New Measure to Quantify Free Thought and Predict Creativity

By: Kurt Gray, Stephen Anderson, Eric Evan Chen, John Michael Kelly, Michael S. Christian, John Patrick, Laura Huang, Yoed N. Kenett and Kevin Lewis

When the human mind is free to roam, its subjective experience is characterized by a continuously evolving stream of thought. Although there is a technique that captures people’s streams of free thought—free association—its utility for scientific research is undermined... View Details

Keywords: Cognition and Thinking; Creativity; Forecasting and Prediction

March 2022 (Revised January 2025)
Technical Note

Prediction & Machine Learning

By: Iavor I. Bojinov, Michael Parzen and Paul Hamilton

This note provides an introduction to machine learning for an introductory data science course. The note begins with a description of supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning. Then, the note provides a brief explanation of the difference between traditional... View Details

Keywords: Machine Learning; Data Science; Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Performance Evaluation; AI and Machine Learning

2009
Article

The Harvard Economic Service and the Problems of Forecasting

By: Walter Friedman

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Higher Education; Problems and Challenges; Economics

06 May 2015
What Do You Think?

Are You Ready for Personalized Predictive Analytics?

amounts of inventory that ensure an in-stock position when an order is received. An argument can be made that any forecast and inventory is based on predictive analytics. But... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett

April 2008
Case

Four Products: Predicting Diffusion (2008)

By: John T. Gourville

An updated "Four Products" case. This 2008 version includes: sliced peanut butter, foldable bicycle tires, high-end wooden puzzles, and artificial dirt for thoroughbred race tracks. These four products form the basis to assess the drivers of new product adoption. In... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Innovation and Invention; Product Marketing; Demand and Consumers; Adoption