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      • December 1989
      • Article

      On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations

      By: K. A. Froot and T. Ito
      This paper examines whether short-term exchange rate expectations 'overreact' by comparing them with long-term expectations. We develop a set of nonlinear restrictions linking expectations at different forecast horizons. The restrictions impose consistency, a property... View Details
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Asset Pricing
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      Froot, K. A., and T. Ito. "On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations." Journal of International Money and Finance 8, no. 4 (December 1989): 487–510. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 2577, May 1988.)
      • September 1989
      • Article

      Exchange Rate Pass-Through When Market Share Matters

      By: K. A. Froot and P. Klemperer
      Keywords: International Trade; Purchasing Power Parity; International Finance
      Citation
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      Froot, K. A., and P. Klemperer. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through When Market Share Matters." American Economic Review 79, no. 4 (September 1989): 637–654. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 2542, October 1989.)
      • Article

      Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?

      By: K. A. Froot and J. Frankel
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Asset Pricing
      Citation
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      Froot, K. A., and J. Frankel. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?" Quarterly Journal of Economics 104, no. 1 (February 1989): 139–161. (Revision of "Findings of Forward Discount Bias Interpreted in Light of Exchange Rate Survey Data," NBER Working Paper No. 1963 and Sloan Working Paper No. 1906-87, August 1987. Reprinted in Advances in Behavioral Finance, edited by Richard Thaler. New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1993: 359-382 and in Speculation and Financial Markets, edited by M. Taylor and L. Gallagher. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2001.)
      • January 1989 (Revised July 1991)
      • Case

      Bank for International Development, Software Case

      By: W. Carl Kester and Timothy A. Luehrman
      A hypothetical case in which an assistant treasurer of a supranational bank is asked to determine in which currencies it has been cheaper ex post to borrow. An integral part of the case is a Lotus 1-2-3 worksheet containing monthly data on yen and dollar interest... View Details
      Keywords: Decisions; Interest Rates; International Finance; Relationships; Currency; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Analytics and Data Science; Inflation and Deflation
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      Kester, W. Carl, and Timothy A. Luehrman. "Bank for International Development, Software Case." Harvard Business School Case 289-034, January 1989. (Revised July 1991.)
      • 1988
      • Chapter

      Explaining the Demand for Dollars: International Rates of Return, and the Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists

      By: Jeffrey A. Frankel and Kenneth A. Froot
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Currency Exchange Rate; Asset Pricing; Macroeconomics
      Citation
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      Frankel, Jeffrey A., and Kenneth A. Froot. "Explaining the Demand for Dollars: International Rates of Return, and the Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists." Chap. 2 in Macroeconomics, Agriculture, and Exchange Rates, edited by R. Chambers and P. Paarlberg, 25–80. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1988.
      • April 1988 (Revised May 1992)
      • Case

      Gaz de France

      By: W. Carl Kester
      The treasurer of Gaz de France is an aggressive, proactive manager of his company's liability structure, running one of the largest swap books of any non-financial corporation in the world. Currency futures, interbank forwards, and currency options are also frequently... View Details
      Keywords: Decisions; Borrowing and Debt; Currency Exchange Rate; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Policy; Management; Organizational Structure; Energy Industry; Europe
      Citation
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      Kester, W. Carl. "Gaz de France." Harvard Business School Case 288-030, April 1988. (Revised May 1992.)
      • February 1988 (Revised November 1994)
      • Background Note

      Note on Fundamental Parity Conditions

      By: W. Carl Kester and Richard P. Melnick
      Provides a simple framework for analyzing expected exchange rate movements. Basic parity and equilibrium conditions are presented including purchasing power parity, forward parity, interest rate parity, the domestic Fisher effect, and the international Fisher effect... View Details
      Keywords: Currency Exchange Rate; Situation or Environment
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      Kester, W. Carl, and Richard P. Melnick. "Note on Fundamental Parity Conditions." Harvard Business School Background Note 288-016, February 1988. (Revised November 1994.)
      • September 1987 (Revised November 1992)
      • Background Note

      Note on Transaction and Translation Exposure

      By: W. Carl Kester and Richard P. Melnick
      Describes the transaction and translation exposures that companies doing business internationally face when foreign exchange rates change. Also discusses how to measure and cover both types of exposure. Covering techniques are demonstrated using examples of forward... View Details
      Keywords: Currency Exchange Rate; International Finance
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      Kester, W. Carl, and Richard P. Melnick. "Note on Transaction and Translation Exposure." Harvard Business School Background Note 288-017, September 1987. (Revised November 1992.)
      • September 1987
      • Article

      Short-term and Long-term Expectations of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate: Evidence from Survey Data

      By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; Asset Pricing; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Japan; United States
      Citation
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      Frankel, J., and K. A. Froot. "Short-term and Long-term Expectations of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate: Evidence from Survey Data." Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 1 (September 1987): 249–274. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 2216, April 1987.)
      • March 1987
      • Article

      Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations

      By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; Asset Pricing; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Analytics and Data Science; Finance
      Citation
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      Frankel, J., and K. A. Froot. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations." American Economic Review 77, no. 1 (March 1987): 133–153. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 1672.)
      • January 1987 (Revised November 1991)
      • Case

      R.J. Reynolds International Financing

      By: W. Carl Kester and William B. Allen
      Reynolds must source a substantial portion of the financing of its Nabisco acquisition in offshore bond markets. Morgan Guaranty has proposed a yen/dollar dual currency Eurobond that could be hedged into dollars. This structure is compared to Eurodollar Bonds, Euroyen... View Details
      Keywords: Acquisition; Capital Markets; Currency Exchange Rate; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Bonds; Financing and Loans
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      Kester, W. Carl, and William B. Allen. "R.J. Reynolds International Financing." Harvard Business School Case 287-057, January 1987. (Revised November 1991.)
      • 1987
      • Working Paper

      Tests of Excess Forecast Volatility in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets

      By: K. A. Froot
      Simple regression tests that have power against the alternatives that asset prices and expected future asset returns are excessively volatile are developed and performed for the foreign exchange and stock markets. These tests have a number of advantages over... View Details
      Keywords: Risk Aversion; Risk; International Investing; International Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Asset Pricing; Financial Markets; Investment; Behavioral Finance; Volatility
      Citation
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      Froot, K. A. "Tests of Excess Forecast Volatility in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 2362, August 1987.
      • December 1986 (Revised March 1991)
      • Supplement

      Caterpillar-Komatsu in 1986

      By: Christopher A. Bartlett
      Provides an update to the global competitive interaction between Caterpillar and Komatsu described in companion cases Caterpillar Tractor and Komatsu Ltd. Caterpillar's response to Komatsu's growing market share is outlined, then the impact of rapidly changing... View Details
      Keywords: Competition; Currency Exchange Rate; Price; Global Strategy; Policy; Market Participation; Strategy; Manufacturing Industry; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Industrial Products Industry
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      Bartlett, Christopher A. "Caterpillar-Komatsu in 1986." Harvard Business School Supplement 387-095, December 1986. (Revised March 1991.)
      • December 1986
      • Article

      Understanding the U.S. Dollar in the Eighties: The Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists

      By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; Asset Pricing; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; History; Performance Expectations; Economics; United States
      Citation
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      Frankel, J., and K. A. Froot. "Understanding the U.S. Dollar in the Eighties: The Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists." Special Issue Economic Record (December 1986): 24–38. (Reprinted in Exchange Rate Economics, vol. I, edited by R. MacDonald and M. Taylor, International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, U.K., 1992.)
      • July 1986 (Revised July 1991)
      • Case

      Nippon-WTI Ltd.

      By: W. Carl Kester and Glynn Ferguson
      A Japanese joint venture between a U.S. parent and a Japanese parent has proposed that 100% of the U.S. parent's product be produced in Japan rather than the 40% currently being manufactured there. This would require the U.S. parent to give up a dollar profit earned on... View Details
      Keywords: Joint Ventures; Currency Exchange Rate; Profit; Product; Production; Strategy; Manufacturing Industry; Asia; Japan; United States
      Citation
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      Kester, W. Carl, and Glynn Ferguson. "Nippon-WTI Ltd." Harvard Business School Case 287-006, July 1986. (Revised July 1991.)
      • 1986
      • Article

      The Dollar as an Irrational Speculative Bubble: A Tale of Fundamentalists and Chartists

      By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
      Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Currency Exchange Rate; Asset Pricing; Macroeconomics
      Citation
      Related
      Frankel, J., and K. A. Froot. "The Dollar as an Irrational Speculative Bubble: A Tale of Fundamentalists and Chartists." Marcus Wallenberg Papers on International Finance 1 (1986): 27–55. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 1854, March 1986.)
      • August 1985 (Revised July 1991)
      • Case

      Universal Circuits, Inc.

      By: Thomas R. Piper
      The manager of international finance of a major U.S. electronics company is concerned about the exposure of the firm to changes in exchange rates. Of particular concern is the exposure of operations to changes in real exchange rates. The teaching objectives include: 1)... View Details
      Keywords: Credit Derivatives and Swaps; International Finance; Currency Exchange Rate; Business Plan; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Electronics Industry; United States
      Citation
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      Piper, Thomas R. "Universal Circuits, Inc." Harvard Business School Case 286-006, August 1985. (Revised July 1991.)
      • February 1985 (Revised September 1988)
      • Case

      Komatsu Ltd.

      By: Christopher A. Bartlett
      Reviews and updates the structure and characteristics of the earth-moving equipment industry presented in the companion case, Caterpillar Tractor Co. After revealing that CAT has suffered major financial losses during the period from 1981 through 1984, the case... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Crisis; Machinery and Machining; Price; Growth and Development; Brands and Branding; Product Development; Production; Competitive Strategy; Global Strategy; Manufacturing Industry; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Industrial Products Industry
      Citation
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      Bartlett, Christopher A. "Komatsu Ltd." Harvard Business School Case 385-277, February 1985. (Revised September 1988.)
      • July 1983 (Revised July 1991)
      • Case

      Hintz-Kessels-Kohl A.G.

      By: Thomas R. Piper
      A truck manufacturer must decide whether to bid on the sale of 120 trucks to a private firm in Costa Rica. If a bid is submitted, a decision must be made on whether to protect against the credit, exchange rate, and sovereign risks. View Details
      Keywords: Risk Management; Currency Exchange Rate; Truck Transportation; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Manufacturing Industry; Auto Industry; Germany; Costa Rica
      Citation
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      Piper, Thomas R. "Hintz-Kessels-Kohl A.G." Harvard Business School Case 284-019, July 1983. (Revised July 1991.)
      • January 1982
      • Background Note

      Exchange Rate Determination and Foreign Exchange Equilibrium Conditions, Study Note

      By: Thomas R. Piper
      Keywords: Currency Exchange Rate; International Finance
      Citation
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      Piper, Thomas R. "Exchange Rate Determination and Foreign Exchange Equilibrium Conditions, Study Note." Harvard Business School Background Note 282-052, January 1982.
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