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- All HBS Web (1,400)
- Faculty Publications (458)
- 2016
- Chapter
Forward Guidance in the Yield Curve: Short Rates versus Bond Supply
By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel Gregory Hanson and Dimitri Vayanos
We present a model of the yield curve in which the central bank can provide market participants with forward guidance on both future short rates and on future Quantitative Easing (QE) operations, which affect bond supply. Forward guidance on short rates works through... View Details
Greenwood, Robin, Samuel Gregory Hanson, and Dimitri Vayanos. "Forward Guidance in the Yield Curve: Short Rates versus Bond Supply." In Monetary Policy through Asset Markets: Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World, edited by Elias Albagli, Diego Saravia, and Michael Woodford, 11–62. Santiago: Banco Central de Chile, 2016. (Working Paper version: NBER Working Paper No. 21750 Here.)
- Program
Risk Management for Corporate Leaders—Virtual
Summary All organizations—even those with sophisticated models of risk exposure—are vulnerable to disaster. In most organizations, risk management attempts to avoid disasters by emphasizing compliance,... View Details
- 18 Oct 2013
- Working Paper Summaries
Monetary Policy Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks
- April 2025
- Article
The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates
In this paper I document a striking fact: a narrow window around Fed meetings fully captures the secular decline in U.S. Treasury yields since 1980. By contrast, yield movements outside this window are transitory and wash out over time. This is surprising because the... View Details
Keywords: United States Treasury; Monetary Policy; Yield Curve; Bonds; Financial Markets; Government Administration; Valuation; Interest Rates; United States
Hillenbrand, Sebastian. "The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates." Review of Financial Studies 38, no. 4 (April 2025): 981–1013. (Editor's Choice selection and Winner of the WFA Brattle Group Ph.D. Award for Outstanding Research.)
- April 2024
- Article
Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads
By: Samuel G. Hanson, Aytek Malkhozov and Gyuri Venter
We develop and test a model in which swap spreads are determined by end users' demand for
and constrained intermediaries’ supply of long-term interest rate swaps. Swap spreads reflect
compensation both for using scarce intermediary capital and for bearing convergence... View Details
Keywords: Swap Spreads; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Interest Rates; Risk and Uncertainty; Volatility
Hanson, Samuel G., Aytek Malkhozov, and Gyuri Venter. "Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads." Art. 103814. Journal of Financial Economics 154 (April 2024).
- 1993
- Working Paper
Currency Hedging Over Long Horizons
By: K. A. Froot
This paper reexamines the widely-held wisdom that the currency exposure of international investments should be entirely hedged. It finds that the previously documented ability of hedges to reduce portfolio return variance holds at short horizons, but not at long... View Details
The International Price of Remote Work
We use data from a large web-based job platform to study how the price of remote work is determined in a globalized labor market. In the platform, workers located around the world compete for jobs that can be done... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Market for Sharing Interest Rate Risk: Quantities and Asset Prices
By: Ishita Sen, Umang Khetan, Jane Li and Ioana Neamtu
We study the extent of interest rate risk sharing across the financial system using granular positions and transactions data in interest rate swaps. We show that pension and insurance (PF&I) sector emerges as a natural counterparty to banks and corporations: overall,... View Details
Keywords: Interest Rates; Investment Funds; Banks and Banking; Insurance; Investment Banking; Risk and Uncertainty
Sen, Ishita, Umang Khetan, Jane Li, and Ioana Neamtu. "The Market for Sharing Interest Rate Risk: Quantities and Asset Prices." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-052, February 2024.
- 1992
- Chapter
The EMS, the EMU and the Transition to a Common Currency
By: K. A. Froot and K. Rogoff
- 19 Sep 2011
- Research & Ideas
Doomsday Coming for Catastrophic Risk Insurers?
he's seen improvements in the way reinsurers distribute risk over the last two decades, he still questions whether reinsurers in their current form can survive a major catastrophic event. "Reinsurers assume the View Details
- March 2005 (Revised February 2006)
- Case
Advising on Currency Risk at ICICI Bank
In March 2003, a client approached the Markets Advisory Group at ICICI Bank, India's second largest bank, about a hedging transaction. The hedge involved multiple interest rates and currencies. Shilpa Kumar, head of the Markets Advisory Group, has to put together a... View Details
Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Currency Exchange Rate; Capital Markets; Investment Funds; Banks and Banking; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; India
Chacko, George C., Marti G Subrahmanyam, Vincent Dessain, and Anders Sjoman. "Advising on Currency Risk at ICICI Bank." Harvard Business School Case 205-074, March 2005. (Revised February 2006.)
- August 2013 (Revised November 2015)
- Case
Prudential Financial - General Motors Pension Risk Transfer: Back to the Future?
By: Luis M. Viceira and Emily A. Chien
In November 2012, Prudential Financial and General Motors closed on a $25.1B pension risk transfer (PRT) transaction, the largest of its kind to date by an order of magnitude both in the U.S. market and globally. In exchange for an in-kind transfer of $25.1B in... View Details
Keywords: Risk Management; Asset Management; Insurance; Retirement; Financial Services Industry; Insurance Industry
Viceira, Luis M., and Emily A. Chien. "Prudential Financial - General Motors Pension Risk Transfer: Back to the Future?" Harvard Business School Case 213-126, August 2013. (Revised November 2015.)
- 13 Jun 2012
- HBS Case
HBS Cases: A Startup Takes On the Credit Ratings Giants
Fons is about to propose a strategy to Kroll to launch KBRA. Along with Fons, an economist specializing in credit risk and rating agency issues, students are asked to consider several key questions: Should... View Details
- April 2010
- Teaching Note
Groupe Ariel S.A.: Parity Conditions and Cross-Border Valuation (Brief Case)
By: Timothy A. Luehrman and James Quinn
Teaching Note for 4194 View Details
- September 1998
- Book Review
Review of 'Financial Markets and European Monetary Cooperation: The Lessons of the 1992-93 Exchange Rate Mechanism Crisis' by W.H. Buiter, G. Corsetti and P.A. Pesenti
By: Huw Pill
Pill, Huw. "Review of 'Financial Markets and European Monetary Cooperation: The Lessons of the 1992-93 Exchange Rate Mechanism Crisis' by W.H. Buiter, G. Corsetti and P.A. Pesenti." Journal of Economic Literature 36, no. 3 (September 1998): 1510–1512.
- 24 Mar 2008
- Research & Ideas
Reducing Risk with Online Advertising
particulars of your business is different depending on how prevalent bad affiliates are, the profit margins of bad affiliates, and what I call the discount rate of good affiliates—how quickly your good suppliers need to get paid. If they... View Details
- December 1986
- Article
Understanding the U.S. Dollar in the Eighties: The Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists
By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot
Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; Asset Pricing; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; History; Performance Expectations; Economics; United States
Frankel, J., and K. A. Froot. "Understanding the U.S. Dollar in the Eighties: The Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists." Special Issue Economic Record (December 1986): 24–38. (Reprinted in Exchange Rate Economics, vol. I, edited by R. MacDonald and M. Taylor, International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, U.K., 1992.)
- 01 Oct 2009
- Working Paper Summaries
Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect
- 20 Sep 2012
- Research & Ideas
US Competitiveness at Risk
policies that a great majority of those in the private sector agree are necessary. They defy labels—they're not Republican or Democratic, not liberal or conservative policies. Almost everybody agrees we've got to simplify the corporate tax code: statutory View Details
Keywords: Re: Michael E. Porter & Jan W. Rivkin
- Article
Exchange-rate Dynamics under Stochastic Regime Shifts: A Unified Approach
By: K. A. Froot and M. Obstfeld
Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Asset Pricing
Froot, K. A., and M. Obstfeld. "Exchange-rate Dynamics under Stochastic Regime Shifts: A Unified Approach." Journal of International Economics 31, nos. 3-4 (November 1991): 203–230. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 2835, February 1989.)