Economic Value Estimation - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2021
Working Paper

Being the Boss: Gig Workers' Value of Flexible Work

By: Laura Katsnelson and Felix Oberholzer-Gee

Workers who join the gig economy face a challenging trade-off. Gig work provides worktime flexibility and a sense of being one’s own boss, but gig workers forgo certain protections that employees enjoy. In this paper, we study the work patterns of a large sample of... View Details

Keywords: Gig Workers; Flexible Work Arrangements; Worker Welfare; Labor; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms

May 2021
Case

André Hoffmann: Beyond Philanthropy

By: Lauren Cohen, Hao Gao, Jiawei Ye and Spencer C.N. Hagist

André Hoffmann is a leader of one of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies. His exceptional tenure in philanthropy over the past several decades, including being president of the WWF and the vice-president of the MAVA Foundation, has allowed him access to a far... View Details

Keywords: Strategy; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Restructuring; Social Entrepreneurship; Values and Beliefs; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Environmental Sustainability; Cash Flow; Macroeconomics; Ethics; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Switzerland; United States; Japan

2020
Working Paper

Is Accounting Useful for Forecasting GDP Growth? A Machine Learning Perspective

By: Srikant Datar, Apurv Jain, Charles C.Y. Wang and Siyu Zhang

We provide a comprehensive examination of whether, to what extent, and which accounting variables are useful for improving the predictive accuracy of GDP growth forecasts. We leverage statistical models that accommodate a broad set of (341) variables—outnumbering the... View Details

Keywords: Big Data; Elastic Net; GDP Growth; Machine Learning; Macro Forecasting; Short Fat Data; Accounting; Economic Growth; Forecasting and Prediction; Analytics and Data Science

2021
Working Paper

Hidden Software and Veiled Value Creation: Illustrations from Server Software Usage

By: Raviv Murciano-Goroff, Ran Zhuo and Shane Greenstein

How do you measure the value of a commodity that transacts at a price of zero from an economic standpoint? This study examines the potential for and extent of omission and misattribution in standard approaches to economic accounting with regards to open source... View Details

Keywords: Server Software; Open Source Distribution; Applications and Software; Analytics and Data Science; Economics; Value Creation; Measurement and Metrics

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2021
Working Paper

Time Dependency, Data Flow, and Competitive Advantage

By: Ehsan Valavi, Joel Hestness, Marco Iansiti, Newsha Ardalani, Feng Zhu and Karim R. Lakhani

Data is fundamental to machine learning-based products and services and is considered strategic due to its externalities for businesses, governments, non-profits, and more generally for society. It is renowned that the value of organizations (businesses, government... View Details

Keywords: Economics Of AI; Value Of Data; Perishability; Time Dependency; Flow Of Data; Data Strategy; Analytics and Data Science; Value; Strategy; Competitive Advantage

March 2021 (Revised January 2024)
Case

Ayn Rand: Changing the World

By: Robert Simons and Max Saffer

This case traces the life of Ayn Rand from Russia to Hollywood to New York City. The case describes how Rand fled communist Russia and, in reaction to the deprivations she experienced under communism, developed a philosophy idealizing free will and personal... View Details

Keywords: Writing; Values and Beliefs; Economic Systems; Society; Mission and Purpose; Success; Work-Life Balance; Ethics; Personal Development and Career; Publishing Industry

March 2021
Article

International Trade and Social Connectedness

By: Michael Bailey, Abhinav Gupta, Sebastian Hillenbrand, Theresa Kuchler, Robert J. Richmond and Johannes Stroebel

We use de-identified data from Facebook to construct a new and publicly available measure of the pairwise social connectedness between 170 countries and 332 European regions. We find that two countries trade more when they are more socially connected, especially for... View Details

Keywords: Social Connections; International Trade; Trade; Social Media

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March 2021
Article

On the Direct and Indirect Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks

By: Laura Alfaro, Manuel García-Santana and Enrique Moral-Benito

We explore the real effects of bank-lending shocks and how they permeate the economy through buyer-supplier linkages. We combine administrative data on all Spanish firms with a matched bank-firm-loan dataset of all corporate loans from 2003 to 2013 to estimate... View Details

Keywords: Credit Supply Shocks; Bank Lending Channel; Input-output Linkages; Output; Mechanisms; Trade Credits; Price Effects; Economics; Credit; System Shocks; Employment; Investment; Spain

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March 2021
Article

Parental Burnout Around the Globe: A 42-Country Study

By: Isabelle Roskam, Joyce Aguiar, Ege Akgun, Gizem Arikan, Mariana Artavia, Herve Avalosse, Kaisa Aunola, Michael Bader, Claire Bahati, Elizabeth J. Barham, Elaine Besson, Wim Beyers, Emilie Boujut, Maria Elena Brianda, Anna Brytek-Matera, Neomie Carbonneau, Filipa Cesar, Bin-Bin Chen, Geraldine Dorard, Luciana Carla dos Santos Elias, Sandra Dunsmuir, Natalia Egorova, Nicolas Favez, Anne-Marie Fontaine, Heather Foran, Julia Fricke, Kaichiro Furutani, Laura Gallee, Myrna Gannage, Maria Gaspar, Lucie Godbout, Amit Goldenberg, James J. Gross, Maria Ancuta Gurza, Ruby Hall, Muhammad Aamir Hashmi, Ogma Hatta, Mai Helmy, Thi Van Hoang, Mai Trang Huynh, Emerence Kaneza, Taishi Kawamoto, Goran Knezevic, Bassantea Lodegaena Kpassagou, Ljiljana B. Lazarevic, Sarah Le Vigouroux, Astrid Lebert-Charron, Vanessa Leme, Gao-Xian Lin, Carolyn MacCann, Denisse Manrique-Millones, Marisa Marias, Maria Isabel Miranda-Orrego, Marina Miscioscia, Clara Morgades-Bamba, Seyyedeh Fatemeh Mousavi, Badra Moutassem-Mimouni, Ana Muntean, Hugh Murphy, Alexis Ndayizigiye, Josue Ngnombouowo Tenkue, Sally Olderbak, Sophie Ornawka, Fatumo Osman, Daniela Oyarce-Cadiz, Pablo A Perez-Diaz, Konstantinos V Petrides, Claudia Pineda-Marin, Katharina Prandstetter, Alena Prikhidko, Ricardo T Ricci, Fernando Salinas-Quiroz, Raquel Sanchez-Rodriguez, Ainize Sarrionandia, Celine Scola, Vincent Sezibera, Paola Silva, Alessandra Simonelli, Bart Soenens, Emma Sorbring, Matilda Sorkkila, Charlotte Schrooyen, Elena Stanculescu, Elena Starchenkova, Dorota Szczygiel, Javier Tapia, Thi Minh Thuy Tri, Melissa Tremblay, A. Meltem Ustandag-Budak, Maday Valdes Pacheco, Hedwig van Bakel, Lesley Verhofstadt, Jaqueline Wendland, Saengduean Yotanyamaneewong and Moira Mikolajczak

High levels of stress in the parenting domain can lead to parental burnout, a condition that has severe consequences for both parents and children. It is not yet clear, however, whether parental burnout varies by culture, and if so, why it might do so. In this study,... View Details

Keywords: Exhaustion; Culture; Individualism; Collectivism; Prevalence; Family and Family Relationships; Values and Beliefs; Global Range

March 2021
Article

The Impact of the General Data Protection Regulation on Internet Interconnection

By: Ran Zhuo, Bradley Huffaker, KC Claffy and Shane Greenstein

The Internet comprises thousands of independently operated networks, where bilaterally negotiated interconnection agreements determine the flow of data between networks. The European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) imposes strict restrictions on... View Details

Keywords: Personal Data; Privacy Regulation; GDPR; Interconnection Agreements; Internet and the Web; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms

February 2021
Article

Do Household Wealth Shocks Affect Productivity? Evidence from Innovative Workers During the Great Recession

By: S. Bernstein, T. McQuade and R. Townsend

We investigate how the deterioration of household balance sheets affects worker productivity, and, in turn, economic downturns. Specifically, we compare the output of innovative workers who experienced differential declines in housing wealth during the financial crisis... View Details

Keywords: Great Recession; Household; Financial Condition; System Shocks; Employees; Performance Productivity

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2021
Working Paper

Housing Consumption and the Cost of Remote Work

By: Christopher Stanton and Pratyush Tiwari

This paper estimates housing choice differences between households with and without remote workers. Prior to the pandemic, the expenditure share on housing was more than seven percent higher for remote households compared to similar non-remote households in the same... View Details

Keywords: Remote Work; Geographic Mobility; Housing; Cost; Geographic Location; Income

Article

Variety of Innovation in Global Value Chains

By: Giulio Buciuni and Gary P. Pisano

This article analyzes how the geography and organization of pre- and production stages in Global Value Chains (GVC) contribute to lead firms' innovation development. A novel approach in GVC studies is introduced based on transaction cost economics (TCE) and the... View Details

Keywords: GVC; Global Value Chains; Manufacturing; Production; Global Range; Innovation and Invention

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January 2021 (Revised October 2021)
Case

Ken Talbot—Cautionary Tale in Estate Planning

By: Christina R. Wing and Faith Lyons

In 2010, Ken Talbot, a self-made Australian billionaire, was traveling throughout Africa to bring his innovative coal technology to the continent when he perished in a plane crash. His will was originally created years prior when his estate worth was estimated to be AU... View Details

Keywords: Estate Planning; Entrepreneurship; Assets; Agreements and Arrangements; Lawsuits and Litigation; Valuation; Family and Family Relationships; Conflict Management; Australia; Africa

January 2021
Article

'Mobile'izing Agricultural Advice: Technology Adoption, Diffusion and Sustainability

By: Shawn A. Cole and A. Nilesh Fernando

We examine the role of management in agricultural productivity by evaluating a mobile-phone based agricultural advice service provided to farmers in India. Demand for advice is high, and advice changes practices, increasing yields in cumin (28%) and cotton (8.6% for a... View Details

Keywords: Agricultural Extension; Informational Inefficiencies; Technology Adoption; Agribusiness; Information; Mobile Technology; India

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2021
Working Paper

Real Credit Cycles

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer and Stephen J. Terry

We incorporate diagnostic expectations, a psychologically founded model of overreaction to news, into a workhorse business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnosticity, estimated from the forecast errors of managers of U.S.... View Details

Keywords: Econometric Models; Business Cycles; Credit

January 2021
Article

State and Local Government Employment in the COVID-19 Crisis

By: Daniel Green and Erik Loualiche

Local governments are facing large losses in revenues and increased expenditures because of the COVID-19 crisis. We document a causal relationship between fiscal pressures induced by COVID-19 and the layoffs of state and local government workers. States that depend... View Details

Keywords: Local Government; Municipal Finance; Public Finance; Fiscal Capacity; Fiscal Policy; Governance; Local Range; Health Pandemics; Employment; Finance; Policy; Public Sector

January 2021
Article

Turbulence, Firm Decentralization and Growth in Bad Times

By: Philippe Aghion, Nicholas Bloom, Brian Lucking, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen

What is the optimal form of firm organization during “bad times”? We present a model of delegation within the firm to show that the effect is ambiguous. The greater turbulence following macro shocks may benefit decentralized firms because the value of local information... View Details

Keywords: Decentralization; Growth; Turbulence; Great Recession; Organizational Design; System Shocks; Economic Growth; Performance

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December 2020 (Revised April 2021)
Case

Arcos Dorados: A QSR Recovery Plan

By: Forest Reinhardt, José B. Alvarez, Jenyfeer Martinez Buitrago and Mariana Cal

Arcos Dorados—McDonald’s largest independent franchisee, covering Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)—faced a pandemic that was disrupting the entire consumer foodservice business in 2020. With the exclusive right to own, operate, and sub-franchise McDonald’s... View Details

November 2020
Teaching Note

Valuing Celgene's CVR

By: Benjamin C. Esty and Daniel Fisher

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 221-031. When Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) acquired Celgene Corporation in November 2019, Celgene shareholders received cash, BMS stock, and a contingent value right (CVRs) that would pay $9 if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)... View Details

Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Valuation; Value; Judgments; Decision Making; Cash Flow; Financial Instruments; Cognition and Thinking; Pharmaceutical Industry; Biotechnology Industry; United States

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